Economist – Who’s Who – Economic Research

News and Economic Analyses

A-
A+

who's who

Stéphane ALBY Team : Country risk +33(0)1 42 98 02 04

stephane.alby@bnpparibas.com

Subscribe

expertise

Economist : Africa, French-speaking countries

Publications

His or Her Analyses

Global : From the CFA Franc to the Eco, a smooth transition

CFA Franc of eight West-African countries will face major changes in 2020. Beyond the change of name, governance will be modified. However, fundamentals remains and several hurdles will have to be overcome before to see further reforms.

Emerging Countries : Birth of the eco: essentially a symbolic change

The end of the CFA franc and its replacement with the eco scheduled for next June address the legitimate desire of WAEMU member countries to manage what is already their single currency. Governance of the currency regime will change as the French Treasury pulls out of WAEMU entities, although it will still serve as the lender of last resort. Though the euro peg will limit monetary policy’s independence, it is necessary to shore up the macroeconomic stability of WAEMU, which is still fragile.

HTML

Algeria : Economic transition, the other challenge

With anaemic growth, strong pressure on hydrocarbon revenue and substantial twin deficits, the macroeconomic situation is worrying. For the time being, forex reserves remain at comfortable levels but the speed and scale of their contraction is a major source of vulnerability over the short to medium term. Meanwhile, although certain decisions suggest a change of tack in the government’s position after years of economic protectionism, this progress is still too hesitant given the challenges. It is also of limited effectiveness whilst the business climate has not yet stabilised.

HTML

Morocco : Satisfactory performance

Between difficulties in Europe and a poor agricultural harvest, Morocco faces numerous headwinds. Growth slowed in 2019 for the second consecutive year. Yet domestic demand remains robust, bolstered among other factors by low inflation and an accommodating monetary policy. The authorities are also counting on major privatisation proceeds to soften fiscal consolidation without worsening public debt. Above all, the ongoing development of the automobile industry raises hopes for a rebound in GDP growth in 2020, while lower oil imports should help to reduce the current account deficit.

HTML

Tunisia : Tunisia: Sluggish economic growth

The government’s 2019 budget growth target of 3.1% is clearly out of reach. Indeed, real GDP growth stood at only 1.1% during the first six months of the year. Except tourism and to a lesser extent agriculture, most sectors have stalled, or even contracted (industry). Headwinds will remain powerful in the coming months, starting with the subdued demand from European countries. Despite signs of inflation stabilization, the monetary environment will also remain restrictive amid strong pressure on external accounts. Above all, uncertainties linked to presidential and parliamentary elections scheduled in September-October will continue to weigh on the business climate and thus investment. The economic recovery expected in 2020 will greatly rely on a steadfast implementation of reforms. The task is huge.

HTML

Nigeria : Nigeria: convalescent

The sub-Saharan Africa’s largest economy is having hard time to recover. External rebalancing has showed some progress. But imports remain well below pre-crisis levels. In addition, the rebuilding of FX reserves is being accompanied by increased financial vulnerability, which puts pressure on monetary policy as the authorities give the priority to exchange rate stability. Weak public finances are an additional constraint. In the short term, and despite its strong potential, the economy is expected to grow more slowly than the population. As well as improving macroeconomic stability, the authorities will have to address the deep-seated factors that are holding back the economy as a whole.

HTML

Tunisia : A fragile stabilisation

The Tunisian economy has begun to show signs of stabilisation. Inflation is falling, exchange rate pressures are easing and the government finally managed to uphold its commitment to fiscal consolidation in 2018. Yet the country’s prospects are still very fragile. Although the support of international donors is reassuring, the persistence of major external imbalances exposes the economy to shocks. Bank liquidity is already under pressure due to the tightening of monetary policy, and the high level of public debt calls for further reduction in budget deficits that could be hard to achieve. Above all, economic growth is still sluggish.

HTML

Tunisia : Tunisia : the inflation trap

Inflation reached in 2018 all-time high, at more than 7%. Consequently, the central bank tightened its monetary policy. But weaknesses of the banking system limit the room for manoeuvre while persisting downward pressures of the dinar against the euro should continue to fuel inflation in coming months.

Nigeria : The growth engine is still jammed

Nigeria is having a hard time recovering from the 2014 oil shock. Although the economy has pulled out of recession, growth remains sluggish at 1.9% in 2018. Moreover, the central bank’s recent decision to cut its key policy rate is unlikely to change much. With inflation holding at high levels, it is still too early to anticipate further monetary easing. Defending the currency peg is another constraint at a time when the stability of the external accounts is still fragile. Between soaring debt interest payments and the very low mobilisation of public resources, there is only limited fiscal manoeuvring room. It is hard to imagine a rapid economic turnaround without the intensification of reforms.

HTML

Nigeria : Nigeria: A new mandate with limited leeway

The presidential election in Nigeria was held on the 23rd and 24th of February. President Buhari has been re-elected amid a difficult macroeconomic backdrop.

ABOUT US Three teams of economists (OECD countries research, emerging economies and country risk, banking economics) make up BNP Paribas Economic Research Department.
This website presents their analyses.

The website contains 2321 articles and 593 videos

Find us on

Publications

More Information

        Eco Conjoncture
    
        Eco Flash
    
            Eco Week
        
            Eco Perspectives
        
            Eco Emerging

Legal Information

Legal information for the www.economic-research.bnpparibas.com website

Welcome to the www.economic-research.bnpparibas.com website (hereinafter the “Site”) published by BNP Paribas S.A.
Company name: BNP Paribas
Public limited company with a capital of: EUR 2,415,491,972
Commercial register [RCS]: Paris no.: 662 042 449
Head office: 16, boulevard des Italiens, 75009 Paris (France)
EC identifier: FR76662042449
Orias no.: 07 022 735

- Legal representative and Publication Director: Jean-Laurent Bonnafé
- Contact: Michel Bernardini - michel.bernardini@bnpparibas.com
- Hosted by: GECD, Capital Market CIB
- Designed by: BNP PARIBAS - CIB

The publisher undertakes to comply with all laws on the establishment and the activity of a website. As a user of the Site, you must read the following terms and conditions carefully and accessing the Site is deemed as acceptance thereof.

1 - ACCESS TO THE WEBSITE

Access to the www.economic-research.bnpparibas.com website is free of charge. The costs of accessing and using the telecommunications network are borne by the user in accordance with the terms and conditions set by his/her access providers and telecommunications operators.

The user of the www.economic-research.bnpparibas.com website acknowledges that he/she has the skill and resources necessary to gain access to and use the Site.

The user is reminded that it is an offence punishable under criminal law to fraudulently access or remain connected to an IT system, to impair or interfere with the functioning of such a system or to fraudulently enter or alter information in an IT system.

2 - INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY

All the content (text, images, data, graphics, photographs, soundtracks, etc.) of the www.economic-research.bnpparibas.com website is protected by the copyright, trademark and, more broadly, the intellectual property legislation.

It is prohibited to reproduce or represent the pages, data or any other component of this Site by any means and on any medium whatsoever, whether in whole or in part, without prior express authorisation. Such action would constitute an infringement punishable under the French Intellectual Property Code.

As an exception to the foregoing, the www.economic-research.bnpparibas.com website includes publications (audiovisual, written) that the user may view or download. For these identified publications, the Site’s publisher (which also holds the copyright to these publications) authorises the user to reproduce, represent and distribute these publications on any medium and by any means of communications. The authorisation to reproduce, represent and distribute these publications is expressly subject to (a) use of the publication in its integral form without any changes and (b) the insertion of a reference “Source: BNP Paribas Economic Research” for each use, reproduction, representation and distribution of the publication.

It is expressly agreed that the Site’s publisher may, if the circumstances/context in which the publication is used were to damage the image of BNP Paribas or the integrity of the publication, require the immediate cessation by the relevant user of all use, reproduction, representation and distribution thereof.

The trademarks on the www.economic-research.bnpparibas.com website are trademarks registered in France and internationally in various different forms by BNP Paribas S.A.

Any reproduction or representation in full or in part of these trademarks using components of the Site without the prior express authorisation of BNP Paribas S.A. is thus prohibited pursuant to Article L. 713-2 of the French Intellectual Property Code.

Likewise, any use of the Site’s content for illegal purposes will lead to legal proceedings against the offender(s).

As an exception, some content (texts, images, etc.) belongs to its respective authors and BNP Paribas S.A. uses it with their consent.

3 - LIABILITY

BNP Paribas endeavours to ensure the accuracy and exhaustiveness of the information disseminated on this Site and reserves the right to correct or change the content or presentation of this website at any time and without notice.

BNP Paribas cannot guarantee the exhaustiveness or that no changes have been made by a third party (intrusion, virus, etc.).

BNP Paribas declines any direct or indirect liability concerning the accuracy, the absence of errors, the updated nature and the availability of the information contained on the Site.

BNP Paribas may not be held liable for any decision made on the basis of information contained on the Site or for the use that third parties might make of it.

BNP Paribas declines any liability in the event of any delay, error or omission as regards the content of these web pages or if the Site is taken down or unavailable.

The publisher of the www.economic-research.bnpparibas.com website may not be held liable in any circumstances for any indirect damage of whatever nature in this regard.

4 - TECHNICAL DAMAGE

Users are reminded that there is no guarantee messages transmitted on the internet will remain confidential and that the responsibility lies with the individual user to take all appropriate measures to protect his or her own data and/or software programs against contamination by possible viruses circulating on the internet.

The publisher of the www.economic-research.bnpparibas.com website may not be held liable for matters outside its control and for any damage that may be caused by the user’s technical environment, in particular computers, software programs, network equipment and any other devices used to gain access to the website or to use it and/or the information it contains.

5 - HYPERTEXT LINKS

Prior authorisation must be obtained from the publisher before creating hypertext links to the www.economic-research.bnpparibas.com website. In an exception to the foregoing, the user has the possibility of distributing certain identified content on the internet by using an internet address in the form of a hypertext link. In this scenario, the user is authorised to create hypertext links to the web page on the www.economic-research.bnpparibas.com website incorporating the said content.

It is expressly agreed that the Site’s publisher may, if the circumstances/context in which the hypertext link is used were to damage the image of BNP Paribas or the integrity of the publication, require the immediate withdrawal by the relevant user of the said hypertext link.

BNP Paribas is not liable for the content of sites with hypertext links linking to the Site.

By clicking on hypertext links linking to other sites from the www.economic-research.bnpparibas.com website, the user leaves the Site.

The publisher of the www.economic-research.bnpparibas.com site declines any liability concerning the content and possible damage incurred when visiting websites to which the website leads via hypertext links.

The user assumes responsibility for visits to other sites and does so at his/her own risk.

6 - COOKIES

The user is informed that a cookie may install itself automatically and be stored temporarily in the computer’s memory or hard drive when visiting the Site. A cookie is used to recognise the browser of the terminal from which the user connects to the Site, notably in order to store the browser’s display preferences, find out and meet as effectively as possible the user’s expectations or to produce traffic statistics for the Site.

The user may configure the browser to store cookies on his/her terminal, to reject them, either systematically or according to their issuer, or to inform him/her when a cookie is stored on the terminal. To find out ways of setting preferences for cookies, the user should refer to the browser’s help menu.

7 - PDF FILES

To read a PDF file, the user will need to download the latest version of the Acrobat Reader software program in French xxx ?? xxx. If the user does not have a version of the software program that can read PDF files on this website, he or she must download the software program, it being specified that this download can be made only from a site other than www.economic-research.bnpparibas.com.

8 - PERSONAL DATA

Personal information/data entered by the user on the www.economic-research.bnpparibas.com site when subscribing to the BNP Paribas Economic Research publications will be processed in complete confidentiality by BNP Paribas solely for the following purposes:

- transmission of the BNP Paribas Economic Research publications to which the user has subscribed,
- solely for the internal management purposes of the www.economic-research.bnpparibas.com site and to comply with the statutory and regulatory obligations.

No other use will be made by BNP Paribas of the personal information/data entered.

The user has the right to access, correct and delete the personal data collected on the Site as provided for in the French Law no. 78-17 of 6 January 1978 as amended on Data Processing, Data Files and Individual Liberties. The user may exercise these rights:

> by writing to the following address:
BNP Paribas - Etudes Economiques, 6 Boulevard des Capucines, ACI: CIK01A1, 75450 Paris Cedex 09

> by sending an email to the following address:
michel.bernardini@bnpparibas.com

9 - APPLICABLE LAW

The content of the www.economic-research.bnpparibas.com site is subject to the law applicable in France. All users acknowledge the competence of the courts within the jurisdiction of the Paris Court of Appeal for all matters related to the content and use of the website or disputes arising therefrom.