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Stéphane ALBY Team : Country risk +33(0)1 42 98 02 04

stephane.alby@bnpparibas.com

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Economist : Africa, French-speaking countries

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His or Her Analyses

Tunisia : Tunisia: Sluggish economic growth

The government’s 2019 budget growth target of 3.1% is clearly out of reach. Indeed, real GDP growth stood at only 1.1% during the first six months of the year. Except tourism and to a lesser extent agriculture, most sectors have stalled, or even contracted (industry). Headwinds will remain powerful in the coming months, starting with the subdued demand from European countries. Despite signs of inflation stabilization, the monetary environment will also remain restrictive amid strong pressure on external accounts. Above all, uncertainties linked to presidential and parliamentary elections scheduled in September-October will continue to weigh on the business climate and thus investment. The economic recovery expected in 2020 will greatly rely on a steadfast implementation of reforms. The task is huge.

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Nigeria : Nigeria: convalescent

The sub-Saharan Africa’s largest economy is having hard time to recover. External rebalancing has showed some progress. But imports remain well below pre-crisis levels. In addition, the rebuilding of FX reserves is being accompanied by increased financial vulnerability, which puts pressure on monetary policy as the authorities give the priority to exchange rate stability. Weak public finances are an additional constraint. In the short term, and despite its strong potential, the economy is expected to grow more slowly than the population. As well as improving macroeconomic stability, the authorities will have to address the deep-seated factors that are holding back the economy as a whole.

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Tunisia : A fragile stabilisation

The Tunisian economy has begun to show signs of stabilisation. Inflation is falling, exchange rate pressures are easing and the government finally managed to uphold its commitment to fiscal consolidation in 2018. Yet the country’s prospects are still very fragile. Although the support of international donors is reassuring, the persistence of major external imbalances exposes the economy to shocks. Bank liquidity is already under pressure due to the tightening of monetary policy, and the high level of public debt calls for further reduction in budget deficits that could be hard to achieve. Above all, economic growth is still sluggish.

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Tunisia : Tunisia : the inflation trap

Inflation reached in 2018 all-time high, at more than 7%. Consequently, the central bank tightened its monetary policy. But weaknesses of the banking system limit the room for manoeuvre while persisting downward pressures of the dinar against the euro should continue to fuel inflation in coming months.

Nigeria : The growth engine is still jammed

Nigeria is having a hard time recovering from the 2014 oil shock. Although the economy has pulled out of recession, growth remains sluggish at 1.9% in 2018. Moreover, the central bank’s recent decision to cut its key policy rate is unlikely to change much. With inflation holding at high levels, it is still too early to anticipate further monetary easing. Defending the currency peg is another constraint at a time when the stability of the external accounts is still fragile. Between soaring debt interest payments and the very low mobilisation of public resources, there is only limited fiscal manoeuvring room. It is hard to imagine a rapid economic turnaround without the intensification of reforms.

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Nigeria : Nigeria: A new mandate with limited leeway

The presidential election in Nigeria was held on the 23rd and 24th of February. President Buhari has been re-elected amid a difficult macroeconomic backdrop.

Morocco : Morrocan exports : profile improves thanks to the boom in the automotive sector

Morocco’s goods exports increased by more than 10% for a second year in a row in 2018, thanks to the good dynamics of phosphates exports and, above all, thanks to the rapid growth in the automotive industry. Since the launch of Renault’s factory in Tangier in 2012, exports of cars have doubled. They are now the largest source of exports and outlook is promising since several projects are in the pipe. The move to higher-value added export products improves the resiliency of the Moroccan economy to external shocks. However, spill-over effects remain limited notably due to a shortage of highly skilled labour force. Expected at 3% in 2019, the economic growth will be insufficient to reduce unemployment, especially for young people living in urban areas.

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Algeria : Unconventional financing: a strategy under control

In late 2017, the authorities decided to resort to direct financing of the Treasury by the central bank to stabilise a dangerously deteriorating macroeconomic situation. The injection of funds helped rebuild bank liquidity via the reimbursement of the debt of state-owned companies. In the absence of a real fiscal impulse, and thanks to prudent monetary policy, inflation remains under control. Without structural adjustments, however, the situation could become very risky.

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Morocco : Mixed prospects

Morocco’s performance was mixed during the first half of 2018. The economic growth recovery is still mild despite good performances in the tourism and manufacturing sectors. Social unrest is rising against a backdrop of endemic unemployment, while the economy is hit again by a swelling energy bill. After several years of consolidation, the twin deficits are expected to widen slightly this year. Although Morocco’s macroeconomic fundamentals are still solid, structural reforms are needed to raise the growth potential.

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Nigeria : Not yet at the end of the tunnel

Nigeria is slowly exiting recession thanks to the rebound in oil production and the upturn in crude oil prices. Forex reserves have virtually doubled since end-2016, the spread between the new benchmark exchange rate and the official rate has narrowed, and the risks of further pressure on the local currency seem limited in the short term. Even so, the situation is still fragile. Public finances are constrained by the very low revenue base and the high cost of domestic debt. The monetary environment is still restrictive, the financial system is becoming increasingly vulnerable and the non-oil economy has not yet recovered. It is hard to be completely reassured with the approach of general elections in 2019.

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