Economist – Who’s Who – Economic Research

News and Economic Analyses

A-
A+

who's who

Stéphane ALBY Team : Country risk +33(0)1 42 98 02 04

stephane.alby@bnpparibas.com

Subscribe

expertise

Economist : Africa, French-speaking countries

Publications

His or Her Analyses

Tunisia : An agreement with the IMF is necessary

Tunisia is projected to post a rebound of its growth by 4% in 2021 after having experienced a significant slump of activity in 2020. But the recovery is fragile. In addition to a resurgence of the epidemic, the marked deterioration of public finances limits the government room for manoeuvre. An agreement with the IMF is key to strengthen investors’ confidence and unlock financial assistance of donors. There is no time to lose.

Tunisia : Another high-risk year

With real GDP contracting by 8.5% in 2020, Tunisia was one of the region’s most severely hit economies. The prospects of a recovery are highly uncertain. The economy is threatened by the resurgence of the pandemic, but the government no longer has the manoeuvring room that it had in 2020. The budget deficit and public debt have soared to alarming levels, which calls for a difficult consolidation of public finances. Although FX reserves have been stable, the country’s external vulnerability is growing. The pandemic’s shock has aggravated a structural deterioration in fundamentals. This could have lasting consequences.

HTML

Morocco : A delicate balancing act

Despite rapid support measures, the economy will not escape a severe recession this year. With the abrupt halting of tourism activity, the drop-off in exports to Europe and the collapse of domestic demand in Q2, GDP will contract by about 6%. Although there are high hopes that a good agricultural harvest will fuel a rebound in 2021, the recovery of non-agricultural activities will take time. In contrast, Morocco’s macroeconomic stability does not seem to be threatened. But growing pressure on public finances leaves the authorities very little manoeuvring room.

HTML

Ghana : A worrying trend in the public finances

According to the government, the Covid-19 crisis will push the budget deficit up to 11.4% of GDP this year, from the 4.7% initially expected. More importantly, medium-term forecasts do not predict a return of the deficit to below 5% of GDP before 2024. This is a worrying trend. Covering financing requirements will prove to be challenging. With the bulk of external financing having already materialized, the government will have to turn to the local debt market. However, conditions here are onerous, resulting in interest costs rising to a very high level (50% of government revenue in 2020). Another option would be to make use of monetary financing. The central bank already has an asset purchase programme in place (2.6% of GDP). Increasing this would carry risks for a country vulnerable to portfolio investment flows. Additional uncertainty comes in the form of the general elections to be held at the end of 2020. In the event of a loss of confidence, the cedi could come under renewed pressure, weakening the public finances a little more. Around half of debt is denominated in foreign currency. We estimate that debt will climb to 77.5% of GDP in 2021, from 62.4% in 2019.

HTML

Nigeria : Double whammy hits weakened economy

Although the pandemic is well contained from a health perspective, the Covid-19 crisis combined with the downturn in oil prices will have severe economic consequences. With no real fiscal leeway, the government has implemented a very modest economic stimulus plan, while massive capital outflows and the collapse of oil exports have fuelled the rapid erosion of foreign reserves, bringing the naira under pressure. The deterioration in public and external accounts despite support from donor funds hampers any prospects of a recovery. Just four years after the last recession, real GDP is expected to contract significantly again in 2020. Without an upturn in oil prices, the rebound will be mild in 2021.

HTML

Morocco : Morocco: A sharp recession in 2020

Despite swift reaction by the authorities and solid fundamentals, the Moroccan economy will suffer from a sharp recession in 2020 due to a powerful external shock and containment measures. The recovery will be modest in 2021.

Morocco : Solid fundamentals to cope with the shock

The Moroccan economy will see significant consequences from the coronavirus pandemic. Tourism has been at a standstill since March and will remain so until May at the earliest. The automotive sector and remittances from the Moroccan diaspora will also be hit by the crisis in Europe. However, and provided that the situation improves in the second half of the year, Morocco should be able to avoid recession. Macroeconomic fundamentals are solid and the country will benefit from a substantial fall in oil imports. Moreover, the authorities have reacted swiftly to dampen the shock.

HTML

Morocco : The tourism slump, a threat for the economy

Tourism is the main transmission channel of the Covid-19 pandemic to the Moroccan economy. Activity has been at a standstill since March and will remain so until May, at least. The losses will be significant in a sector that contributes to more than 8% of GDP, which is the highest level in the region. On a more positive note, two-thirds of the tourist season comes from June onwards, which might coincide with the easing of restrictions on travel in some countries even if the recovery of the activity would be gradual. The slump in tourism activity will weigh on growth and external accounts. The sector accounts for 15% of current account receipts. However, external stability does not look under threat. Forex reserves are comfortable and external debt is moderate. The fall in global oil prices should also help to keep current account deficit below 5% of GDP. Lastly, Morocco could draw on the IMF’s Precautionary and Liquidity Line if necessary.

HTML

Global : From the CFA Franc to the Eco, a smooth transition

CFA Franc of eight West-African countries will face major changes in 2020. Beyond the change of name, governance will be modified. However, fundamentals remains and several hurdles will have to be overcome before to see further reforms.

Emerging Countries : Birth of the eco: essentially a symbolic change

The end of the CFA franc and its replacement with the eco scheduled for next June address the legitimate desire of WAEMU member countries to manage what is already their single currency. Governance of the currency regime will change as the French Treasury pulls out of WAEMU entities, although it will still serve as the lender of last resort. Though the euro peg will limit monetary policy’s independence, it is necessary to shore up the macroeconomic stability of WAEMU, which is still fragile.

HTML

ABOUT US Three teams of economists (OECD countries research, emerging economies and country risk, banking economics) make up BNP Paribas Economic Research Department.
This website presents their analyses.

The website contains 2637 articles and 691 videos

Find us on

Publications

More Information

        Eco Conjoncture
    
        Eco Flash
    
            Eco Week
        
            Eco Perspectives
        
            Eco Emerging

Legal Information

Legal information for the www.economic-research.bnpparibas.com website

Welcome to the www.economic-research.bnpparibas.com website (hereinafter the “Site”) published by BNP Paribas S.A.
Company name: BNP Paribas
Public limited company with a capital of: EUR 2,415,491,972
Commercial register [RCS]: Paris no.: 662 042 449
Head office: 16, boulevard des Italiens, 75009 Paris (France)
EC identifier: FR76662042449
Orias no.: 07 022 735

- Legal representative and Publication Director: Jean-Laurent Bonnafé
- Contact: Michel Bernardini - michel.bernardini@bnpparibas.com
- Hosted by: GECD, Capital Market CIB
- Designed by: BNP PARIBAS - CIB

The publisher undertakes to comply with all laws on the establishment and the activity of a website. As a user of the Site, you must read the following terms and conditions carefully and accessing the Site is deemed as acceptance thereof.

1 - ACCESS TO THE WEBSITE

Access to the www.economic-research.bnpparibas.com website is free of charge. The costs of accessing and using the telecommunications network are borne by the user in accordance with the terms and conditions set by his/her access providers and telecommunications operators.

The user of the www.economic-research.bnpparibas.com website acknowledges that he/she has the skill and resources necessary to gain access to and use the Site.

The user is reminded that it is an offence punishable under criminal law to fraudulently access or remain connected to an IT system, to impair or interfere with the functioning of such a system or to fraudulently enter or alter information in an IT system.

2 - INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY

All the content (text, images, data, graphics, photographs, soundtracks, etc.) of the www.economic-research.bnpparibas.com website is protected by the copyright, trademark and, more broadly, the intellectual property legislation.

It is prohibited to reproduce or represent the pages, data or any other component of this Site by any means and on any medium whatsoever, whether in whole or in part, without prior express authorisation. Such action would constitute an infringement punishable under the French Intellectual Property Code.

As an exception to the foregoing, the www.economic-research.bnpparibas.com website includes publications (audiovisual, written) that the user may view or download. For these identified publications, the Site’s publisher (which also holds the copyright to these publications) authorises the user to reproduce, represent and distribute these publications on any medium and by any means of communications. The authorisation to reproduce, represent and distribute these publications is expressly subject to (a) use of the publication in its integral form without any changes and (b) the insertion of a reference “Source: BNP Paribas Economic Research” for each use, reproduction, representation and distribution of the publication.

It is expressly agreed that the Site’s publisher may, if the circumstances/context in which the publication is used were to damage the image of BNP Paribas or the integrity of the publication, require the immediate cessation by the relevant user of all use, reproduction, representation and distribution thereof.

The trademarks on the www.economic-research.bnpparibas.com website are trademarks registered in France and internationally in various different forms by BNP Paribas S.A.

Any reproduction or representation in full or in part of these trademarks using components of the Site without the prior express authorisation of BNP Paribas S.A. is thus prohibited pursuant to Article L. 713-2 of the French Intellectual Property Code.

Likewise, any use of the Site’s content for illegal purposes will lead to legal proceedings against the offender(s).

As an exception, some content (texts, images, etc.) belongs to its respective authors and BNP Paribas S.A. uses it with their consent.

3 - LIABILITY

BNP Paribas endeavours to ensure the accuracy and exhaustiveness of the information disseminated on this Site and reserves the right to correct or change the content or presentation of this website at any time and without notice.

BNP Paribas cannot guarantee the exhaustiveness or that no changes have been made by a third party (intrusion, virus, etc.).

BNP Paribas declines any direct or indirect liability concerning the accuracy, the absence of errors, the updated nature and the availability of the information contained on the Site.

BNP Paribas may not be held liable for any decision made on the basis of information contained on the Site or for the use that third parties might make of it.

BNP Paribas declines any liability in the event of any delay, error or omission as regards the content of these web pages or if the Site is taken down or unavailable.

The publisher of the www.economic-research.bnpparibas.com website may not be held liable in any circumstances for any indirect damage of whatever nature in this regard.

4 - TECHNICAL DAMAGE

Users are reminded that there is no guarantee messages transmitted on the internet will remain confidential and that the responsibility lies with the individual user to take all appropriate measures to protect his or her own data and/or software programs against contamination by possible viruses circulating on the internet.

The publisher of the www.economic-research.bnpparibas.com website may not be held liable for matters outside its control and for any damage that may be caused by the user’s technical environment, in particular computers, software programs, network equipment and any other devices used to gain access to the website or to use it and/or the information it contains.

5 - HYPERTEXT LINKS

Prior authorisation must be obtained from the publisher before creating hypertext links to the www.economic-research.bnpparibas.com website. In an exception to the foregoing, the user has the possibility of distributing certain identified content on the internet by using an internet address in the form of a hypertext link. In this scenario, the user is authorised to create hypertext links to the web page on the www.economic-research.bnpparibas.com website incorporating the said content.

It is expressly agreed that the Site’s publisher may, if the circumstances/context in which the hypertext link is used were to damage the image of BNP Paribas or the integrity of the publication, require the immediate withdrawal by the relevant user of the said hypertext link.

BNP Paribas is not liable for the content of sites with hypertext links linking to the Site.

By clicking on hypertext links linking to other sites from the www.economic-research.bnpparibas.com website, the user leaves the Site.

The publisher of the www.economic-research.bnpparibas.com site declines any liability concerning the content and possible damage incurred when visiting websites to which the website leads via hypertext links.

The user assumes responsibility for visits to other sites and does so at his/her own risk.

6 - COOKIES

The user is informed that a cookie may install itself automatically and be stored temporarily in the computer’s memory or hard drive when visiting the Site. A cookie is used to recognise the browser of the terminal from which the user connects to the Site, notably in order to store the browser’s display preferences, find out and meet as effectively as possible the user’s expectations or to produce traffic statistics for the Site.

The user may configure the browser to store cookies on his/her terminal, to reject them, either systematically or according to their issuer, or to inform him/her when a cookie is stored on the terminal. To find out ways of setting preferences for cookies, the user should refer to the browser’s help menu.

7 - PDF FILES

To read a PDF file, the user will need to download the latest version of the Acrobat Reader software program in French xxx ?? xxx. If the user does not have a version of the software program that can read PDF files on this website, he or she must download the software program, it being specified that this download can be made only from a site other than www.economic-research.bnpparibas.com.

8 - PERSONAL DATA

Personal information/data entered by the user on the www.economic-research.bnpparibas.com site when subscribing to the BNP Paribas Economic Research publications will be processed in complete confidentiality by BNP Paribas solely for the following purposes:

- transmission of the BNP Paribas Economic Research publications to which the user has subscribed,
- solely for the internal management purposes of the www.economic-research.bnpparibas.com site and to comply with the statutory and regulatory obligations.

No other use will be made by BNP Paribas of the personal information/data entered.

The user has the right to access, correct and delete the personal data collected on the Site as provided for in the French Law no. 78-17 of 6 January 1978 as amended on Data Processing, Data Files and Individual Liberties. The user may exercise these rights:

> by writing to the following address:
BNP Paribas - Etudes Economiques, 6 Boulevard des Capucines, ACI: CIK01A1, 75450 Paris Cedex 09

> by sending an email to the following address:
michel.bernardini@bnpparibas.com

9 - APPLICABLE LAW

The content of the www.economic-research.bnpparibas.com site is subject to the law applicable in France. All users acknowledge the competence of the courts within the jurisdiction of the Paris Court of Appeal for all matters related to the content and use of the website or disputes arising therefrom.