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Stéphane ALBY Team : Country risk +33(0)1 42 98 02 04

stephane.alby@bnpparibas.com

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Economist : Africa, French-speaking countries

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His or Her Analyses

Morocco : Mixed prospects

Morocco’s performance was mixed during the first half of 2018. The economic growth recovery is still mild despite good performances in the tourism and manufacturing sectors. Social unrest is rising against a backdrop of endemic unemployment, while the economy is hit again by a swelling energy bill. After several years of consolidation, the twin deficits are expected to widen slightly this year. Although Morocco’s macroeconomic fundamentals are still solid, structural reforms are needed to raise the growth potential.

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Nigeria : Not yet at the end of the tunnel

Nigeria is slowly exiting recession thanks to the rebound in oil production and the upturn in crude oil prices. Forex reserves have virtually doubled since end-2016, the spread between the new benchmark exchange rate and the official rate has narrowed, and the risks of further pressure on the local currency seem limited in the short term. Even so, the situation is still fragile. Public finances are constrained by the very low revenue base and the high cost of domestic debt. The monetary environment is still restrictive, the financial system is becoming increasingly vulnerable and the non-oil economy has not yet recovered. It is hard to be completely reassured with the approach of general elections in 2019.

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Nigeria : Weak recovery

Nigera is slowly exiting recession thanks to the jump in oil prices. Is the recovery sustainable?

Algeria : Algeria : the rebound in oil prices is positive but not sufficient

Global oil prices have rebounded since the beginning of the year, averaging USD 70 per barrel, up from USD 54 in 2017. If it is difficult to say if the current dynamic will last, it is necessarily good news for the Algerian economy as hydrocarbon sector accounts for almost the totality of exports and provides 40% of budgetary revenues. However, the oil price increase remains insufficient. The 2018 budget marks a shift in the government’s policy stance. After two years of consolidation, expenditures are planned to increase markedly. Consequently, Algeria will need a barrel at USD 105 to balance its public accounts, i.e. USD 20 higher than in 2017. It is also above regional peer countries, underlying the necessity to pursue reforms dedicated to reduce oil-related dependence. These reforms will start in 2019 in the best case.

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Tunisia : Tunisia:Alarming deficits

The year 2017 ended with record high twin deficits, which brought the exchange rate and inflation under fierce pressure. Strengthening macroeconomic stability will be hard to achieve. The authorities have very little manoeuvring room. Foreign exchange reserves have fallen below the threshold of three months of imports. The central bank has tightened monetary policy at the risk of increasing the squeeze on bank liquidity, but the impact on inflation will remain small as long as the dinar continues to depreciate. Fiscal consolidation also promises to be a difficult process. Between social pressures, conditions imposed by the IMF and a high public debt, the government has no other option but to reduce the fiscal deficit.

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Ivory Coast : Clouds on the horizon

Côte d’Ivoire has had to deal with a number of shocks, both domestic and external, but its economy has so far proven resilient. Growth remained firm at 7.8% in 2017 and the outlook, according to the IMF, is still bright for at least the next three years. However, sources of weakness abound, including the sharply lower cocoa prices and deteriorating public finances. There is also the risk of further socio-political tensions ahead of elections in 2020 and 2021.

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Tunisia : Tunisia: The dinar under pressure

The worsening of Tunisia’s external position is a source of concern. From 5% of GDP in 2010, the current account deficit has widened to 9% in 2016, and the situation deteriorated further during the first nine months of the year despite the rebound of tourism. Rising external imbalances put the exchange rate under pressure. The dinar has lost 25% of its value against the euro since 2016. The ability of the central bank to defend the currency is reducing more and more. Forex reserves felt to USD 5.6 bn in October, which is barely sufficient to cover 3 months of imports of goods and services. The weakening of Tunisia’s currency fuels inflationary pressures and weighs on the central government debt. In the meantime, exports gains are limited as the external competitiveness of the manufacturing sector erodes. Rebalancing external accounts could be difficult to reach without a contraction in FX reserves and a further depreciation of the dinar.

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Morocco : Positive but fragile prospects

Morocco’s macroeconomic fundamentals remain sound. The balance of payments has been subject to some pressure, but the risk of external instability is low. The current slowdown in import growth should help stabilise the current account deficit, while pressures on forex reserves have abated since the authorities postponed the exchange rate reform. Fiscal prospects are also looking much better after a poor performance in 2016, and the economy is benefiting from better external conditions and the rebound in agricultural output. In the non-agricultural sector, however, growth is still too sluggish.

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Algeria : Striking the right balance

The Algerian economy has been hard hit by the drop off in oil prices. Although the adjustment process was launched rather late, the first measures are beginning to pay off. Though still significant, the budget deficit nonetheless contracted in 2016, and the government’s goal is bring the budget deficit close to zero by 2019. The roadmap looks very ambitious, possibly excessively so. Major cutbacks in public spending threaten the economy, which is already showing signs of weakness. Granted, there is still some manoeuvring room. The external position is still solid despite the rapid drop in foreign reserves, and public debt is moderate. However, it is still uncertain how the authorities intend to cover their future financing needs.

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Morocco : Morocco: greater exchange rate flexibility in sight

Morocco will move toward greater exchange rate flexibility soon. The process will be gradual and tightly controlled by the central bank, and the economy is well prepared to face such evolution.

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