EcoWeek

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Ecoweek 19-02 // 11 January 2019  
economic-research.bnpparibas.com  
Pulse  
Germany: Rude awakening  
For Germany, 2019 started with a hangover. Most indicators that we follow are below their long-term average and all surprised on the downside.  
In particular, the export-oriented manufacturing sector has been badly affected. Production declined in five months out of the six to November.  
The further decline in the PMI manufacturing in December to 51.5 does not signal a quick rebound. Nevertheless, household confidence,  
although weakening, remains well above its long-term average, underpinned by the dynamic labour market, generous pay deals and the  
loosening fiscal stance.  
IFO Business Climate (Dec-18)  
HICP,y/y (Dec-18)  
Composite PMI (Dec-18)  
Factory Orders m/m (Nov-18)  
GfK Consumer Confidence (Dec-18)  
Industrial Production, m/m (Nov-18)  
Unemp, Rate (Dec- 18, sign inverted for both axes)  
GDP, q/q (Q3'18)  
Note: z-score is a score  
which indicates how many  
standard deviations an  
observation is from the  
mean: z=(x-μ)/σ where x:  
observation, μ: mean, σ:  
standard deviation. On the  
X-axis, x corresponds at  
the last known surprise for  
each indictor represented  
2
1
1
0
0
.0  
.5  
.0  
.5  
.0  
on the graph,  
μ and σ  
corresponds respectively  
to the mean and the  
standard deviation of the  
last 24 value for monthly  
-0.5  
-1.0  
-1.5  
-2.0  
-2.5  
data and the last  
quarters for quarterly  
data. On the Y-axis,  
corresponds at the last  
known value of indicator,  
8
x
μ
and  
respectively to the mean  
and the standard  
σ
corresponds  
deviation for this indicator  
since 2000 (for China  
since 2011).  
-2.0  
-1.8  
-1.6  
-1.4  
-1.2  
-1.0  
-0.8  
-0.6  
-0.4  
-0.2  
0.0  
Surprise (z-score)  
Source: Bloomberg, BNP Paribas  
Indicators preview  
In the US the Beige Book will probably get more attention than normal following the recent weak data and the drop in the stock market. Attention  
will also go to several housing market indicators, retail sales, University of Michigan household sentiment and to the Philadelphia Fed survey for  
January. Inflation data will be published for the eurozone, France and the UK.  
Date  
Country/Region  
France  
United States  
Japan  
Event  
Period  
Dec.  
Dec.  
Nov.  
Dec.  
Dec.  
Jan.  
Surv(M)  
--  
0.2%  
--  
--  
Prior  
--  
0.3%  
7.6%  
0.2%  
0.2%  
56  
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1/15/19  
CPI EU Harmonized MoM  
PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM  
Core Machine Orders MoM  
CPI MoM  
Retail Sales Advance MoM  
NAHB Housing Market Index  
U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book  
CPI MoM  
Housing Starts MoM  
Building Permits MoM  
Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook  
Retail Sales Ex Auto Fuel MoM  
Industrial Production MoM  
University of Michigan Sentiment  
1/15/19  
1/16/19  
1/16/19  
1/16/19  
1/16/19  
1/16/19  
1/17/19  
1/17/19  
1/17/19  
1/17/19  
1/18/19  
1/18/19  
1/18/19  
United Kingdom  
United States  
United States  
United States  
Eurozone  
United States  
United States  
United States  
United Kingdom  
United States  
United States  
0.2%  
--  
Dec.  
Dec.  
Dec.  
Jan.  
Dec.  
Dec.  
Jan.  
--  
-0.2%  
3.2%  
5.0%  
9.4  
1.2%  
0.6%  
98.3  
0.0%  
-2.1%  
--  
--  
0.2%  
--  
Source: Bloomberg, BNP Paribas  
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