Judging by the recent data, the acronym PEPP that was introduced last year when the ECB launched its Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme, could also be seen as a reference to the pandemic’s exceptional price pressures. The upcoming governing council meeting and the new staff projections are eagerly awaited. Whether PEPP will be prolonged beyond March 2022 ultimately depends on the inflation data. It seems likely that the ECB will postpone its decision until after the summer in order to have a better view of the inflation outlook.
The global manufacturing hardly moved in May, which shouldn’t come as a surprise, given its already high level. There was little change in the new export orders at the global level.
Our different uncertainty gauges are complementary, in terms of scope or methodology, yet, based on the latest readings, they all point towards a reduction in uncertainty. Such a uniform, positive message is quite unique.
The latest economic figures from Spain have shown so far a substantial gap between the very positive signals from opinion surveys and the hard data, particularly on consumption, where a significant rebound has yet to materialise.
Visits to retail and leisure facilities continued to rise in the main advanced countries. The biggest increase in the week came in France. The improving trend has had a visible impact on the service sector, as can be seen in the latest service sector PMI.
