In this issue of 21 February 2023 : the editorial of William De Vijlder, the global indicators, the economic scenario, the market overviews and the calendars.
In the US, it seems that the expansion phase of the business cycle, the period of elevated inflation, the monetary tightening cycle and the ‘risk-on’ mindset in markets are all far from over. Ongoing relatively strong growth increases the risk that inflation would stop declining. Market commentators have started referring to such an outcome as the ‘no landing’ scenario. However, judging by the latest data, a ‘delayed landing’ seems the more likely one. Markets now expect a higher terminal rate whereby the policy easing would come later as well. The higher the terminal rate, the bigger the likelihood that the landing would be bumpy after all.
Global PMI indices improved slightly in January but remain at a very low level and cannot be taken as a sign of global activity regaining momentum at the start of 2023.
Outlook for GDP growth, inflation, interest rates and exchange rates
The latest economic indicators updated on February 20, 2023 and the coming calendar
