In this issue of May 31: the editorial of William De Vijlder, the latest indicators of global trade, the market overview and the economic scenario.
Based on the PMI data and the European Commission business surveys, it seems that in the Eurozone, industry is clearly slowing down, demand is softening and labour market bottlenecks have eased somewhat. In combination with input prices that are down, this should lead to an easing of output price inflation. In services, the picture is different. Hiring difficulties remain a big constraint on activity, momentum in terms of activity and orders has improved. Input price and output price inflation has eased only slightly. Such a dichotomy complicates the task of the ECB: ongoing strength in services would imply that past rate hikes didn’t yet have a significant impact and would justify more tightening, but this would only make things worse for the industrial sector
The reopening of the Chinese economy at the end of last year has finally had its effects with a few months’ delay. Exports from China jumped 19.8% m/m in March, according to preliminary figures released by the CPB.
GDP growth, inflation, interest rates and exchange rates
