In this issue, William De Vijlder's editorial, Tarik Rharrab's uncertainty pulse, markets overview and an update of our economic scenario.
In the world of central banking, nothing is what it seems. The ECB’s recent rate hike was considered dovish whereas the pause by the Federal Reserve received the label hawkish. These reactions show that, beyond the rate decision, the accompanying message also matters. That of the ECB was interpreted as signaling that the terminal rate had been reached. In the US, the latest rate projections of the FOMC members -the dot plot- point toward another hike before year end and a federal funds rate that would stay elevated for longer. This is unsurprising given the resilience of the US economy in reaction to the aggressive monetary tightening and the concern that bringing inflation back to the 2% target would take more time
In the Euro zone, the European Commission economic uncertainty index resumed its decline in August, continuing the trend started in autumn 2022. Uncertainty is declining in almost all sectors, but the construction sector where it has increased again.
GDP growth, inflation, interest and exchange rates.
