The prospect of the deployment of a Covid-19 vaccine has raised expectations that the stop-start cycle seen this year will make way for a lasting economic recovery in 2021. There is concern however that bringing the pandemic under control could take more time than is currently assumed in economic projections. Under such a scenario, worries about possible new restrictions would remain elevated, although one can assume that, because of vaccination, these measures would be less strict than before and more local. Nevertheless, in the more exposed sectors, investment and employment could be clear victims.
Even if a vaccine is made available soon, it will take months for the USA and the rest of the world to recover from the traumas of the Covid-19 pandemic. Although the US economy is amongst those to have seen the best recoveries so far – notwithstanding comparison with China – it still bears many scars, some of which are clearly visible in our barometer...
According to the first estimate from the Office for National Statistics (ONS), United Kingdom GDP rose by 15.5% in the third quarter, in line with consensus estimates, as restriction measures were progressively lifted following the first lockdown. Despite this record increase, the level of GDP was still nearly 10% below where it was at the end of 2019. While Spain is in a similar position, the GDPs of the United States, France, Germany and Italy have all returned to about 5% below where they were back then...
The marked improvement in the barometer shows that the rebound in economic activity was encouraging up to mid-October, before the epidemic picked up speed again. As in other countries, the pick-up in activity was concentrated in the industrial sector. The manufacturing PMI reached 53.8 in October (its highest level since March 2018), driven by a marked improvement in the new export orders component (+4.5 points to 55.8). Conversely, the services sector PMI fell by 2.1 points to 46.7...
The barometer provides a perfect illustration of the diverging trend observed between manufacturing and services activities. On average over the past three months, the manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) index has moved above its long-term average, while the indicator for services remains well below this trend...
According to Google’s latest Mobility Report, published on 22 November, customer traffic in the retail and recreation sectors in France, Belgium and the UK remains far below baseline* levels at 59%, 56% and 51% respectively on a seven-day moving average (Figures 1 and 2). However, a degree of stabilisation is noticeable, after the sharp drop seen in the early days of the autumn lockdowns...
