According to Google’s latest Mobility Report, published on 22 November, customer traffic in the retail and recreation sectors in France, Belgium and the UK remains far below baseline* levels at 59%, 56% and 51% respectively on a seven-day moving average (Figures 1 and 2). However, a degree of stabilisation is noticeable, after the sharp drop seen in the early days of the autumn lockdowns. Germany, which has introduced less restrictive measures than France, has seen a fall of around 31%. In Spain and Italy, traffic has continued to decrease since the onset of the second wave of the pandemic in mid-September, with falls of 41% and 44% respectively on a seven-day moving average from baseline (Figure 1). In both countries, governments have opted for local lockdowns.
Lastly, in the US and Japan, two countries where restrictions have been lighter compared to Europe, the customer traffic trend has been stable since early June. It is down 16% and 10% respectively compared to a normal situation (Figure 2). However, in the US the pandemic has seen exponential growth over recent weeks, with the number of infections moving above 12 million. Moreover, several states have introduced their own new restrictions to help tackle the spread of the virus. We therefore expect a downturn in customer traffic in the retail and leisure sectors over the near term.
According to the latest figures from Markit (Figure 3), the services PMI numbers for France, the UK and Germany fell to 38.0, 46.0 and 46.2 respectively in November, from 46.9, 51.4 and 49.5 respectively in October. This drop is the consequence of the measures adopted by the three countries as they seek to control the virus. In the US, The services PMI grew by +0.8 point this month, from 56.9 to 57.7, highest since March 2015. In Japan, the services PMI remained more or less stable in November. These figures support the positive link between retail and recreation sector traffic and the services PMI.
RETAIL AND RECREATION MOBILITY
