Based in Paris, BNP Paribas' Economic Research Department is composed of economists and statisticians:
The Economic Research department’s mission is to cater to the economic research needs of the clients, business lines and functions of BNP Paribas. Our team of economists and statisticians covers a large number of advanced, developing and emerging countries, the real economy, financial markets and banking. As we foster the sharing of our research output with anyone who is interested in the economic situation or who needs insight into specific economic issues, this website presents our analysis, videos and podcasts.
+33(0)1 42 98 56 27 christine.peltier@bnpparibas.com
In this special edition of Economic Research devoted to interest rate cuts, we introduce you to Isabelle Mateos y Lago, who succeeds William De Vijlder as Chief Economist of the BNP Paribas Group and Director of the Economic Research department. The Fed and the ECB are cutting rates. How much of a good sign is this? This is the subject we then tackle with Hélène Baudchon, before discussing the effects of the rate cuts on European banks with Laurent Quignon. Finally, we end with Christine Peltier analysing the effects of the Chinese slowdown on emerging countries.
The economic slowdown in China and the implementation of its industrial policy will have large consequences for the rest of the world. Effects will vary from country to country, depending on the transmission channels. For emerging countries, the overall impact will not be necessarily negative, notably thanks to the foreign direct investment channel, which could well change the situation. We are discussing this with Christine Peltier.
In Q3 2024, Chinese economic growth accelerated to +0.9% quarter-on-quarter (q/q), after its poor performance in the previous quarter (+0.5% q/q). It stood at +4.6% year-on-year (y/y), which is slightly lower than in Q2, and reached +4.8% y/y over the first three quarters of 2024. In order to hit the official growth target of "around 5%" set for 2024, activity will have to rebound strongly during the final quarter of the year. This means that the fiscal stimulus measures announced by the authorities since the last week of September need to be rolled out quickly. These announcements have provided less details than expected on the stimulus measures and were less significant than expected by the markets
In China, economic activity data of the last few weeks has been bad enough to shock the authorities into action. While support for domestic demand had remained stubbornly cautious for several months, the last week of September saw a succession of announcements of new monetary easing and then fiscal stimulus measures. This change in policy direction reduces, but does not eliminate, the downside risks to short-term economic growth. If the fiscal expansion plan, the precise content of which has yet to be specified, is implemented quickly, the growth target of "around 5%" set by Beijing for 2024 could be achieved.
Economic indicators for August 2024 once again show that Chinese economic growth is lacking strength. The real GDP growth target of “around 5%” set by Beijing for 2024 can only be achieved with a stronger impetus generated by monetary easing and fiscal expansion.
The Chinese export sector has weathered well the rise in trade tensions and tech rivalry with the US since 2018. The Chinese industry has shown a solid capacity to adapt to the increase in trade barriers and it has kept its leadership position in global trade.
After a rebound to +1.5% q/q in Q1 2024, Chinese economic growth slowed to +0.7% q/q. It stood at +5% year-on-year in the first half of the year. The economic growth target of “around 5%” set by Beijing for 2024 remains achievable.
In China, manufacturing activity remains dynamic, but rising tensions with most of its trading partners and an increase in protectionist measures are now weighing on export prospects. At the same time, domestic demand continues to be held back by the crisis in the property sector, and credit growth is slowing despite monetary easing measures. Therefore, the authorities are expected to continue to ease cautiously their economic policy in the coming months. The financial difficulties of local governments and, more generally, the deterioration in public finances have reduced the fiscal room for manoeuvre. The central government is being pressed to take a more direct role in support measures.
President Lai Ching-te took office on 20 May. He is expected to continue the domestic and foreign policy agenda of his predecessor, in a more tense climate. On the one hand, Beijing could increase its military manoeuvres around the island. On the other hand, Parliament is now dominated by opposition parties, which are expected to slow down or block many government projects. The new administration will at least be able to count on a favourable economic situation to start its mandate. Economic growth has been accelerating over the past year, driven by the rebound in the global electronics cycle
In China, manufacturing activity has remained dynamic, driven in particular by strong growth in exports of high value-added goods. However, the global market share gains made by Chinese companies, bolstered by public subsidies, have exacerbated tensions with most of its trading partners. The proliferation of protectionist measures is now negatively affecting export prospects. At the same time, China’s domestic demand is being undermined by the ongoing crisis in the property sector, and monetary easing measures are failing to stimulate credit activity. Therefore, the authorities are expected to continue to ease cautiously their economic policy in the coming months.
May’s activity data once again highlights the fairly different dynamics of the various components of Chinese economic growth. Overall performance is still somewhat lacklustre and points to a slowdown in activity in Q2 2024 compared with the previous quarter.
China’s economic growth continues to be typified by divergence between sectors and sluggish domestic private demand. As shown in our chart below, the manufacturing sector gained in strength between February and April 2024, compared to the previous three months, whilst the service sector saw no improvement.
In the first quarter of 2024, China’s economic growth was stronger than expected and was largely driven by the export-oriented manufacturing sector. Against a backdrop of sluggish domestic demand and strategic rivalries, particularly with the United States, Beijing is further developing its industrial policy to support economic growth and strengthen "national security". Priority is given to the high-tech and energy transition sectors. With considerable support from the government, these sectors are moving up the value chain, increasing their production capacity, lowering selling prices and gaining export market shares. The flood of green tech products is expected to lead to further trade confrontations in the coming months.
On 15 May 2024, Lee Hsien Loong, Singapore’s Prime Minister for the past twenty years, will hand over the reins to his current Deputy Prime Minister, Lawrence Wong. This change in leadership is not expected to alter the highly disciplined management of monetary and fiscal policies, or the government’s economic development strategy, which is aiming, in particular, to adapt the country to climate change and to boost its potential growth. In 2024, economic activity is expected to pick up slightly, notably thanks to the improving global electronics cycle; inflationary pressures should continue to abate, but will nonetheless remain high. Against this backdrop, the authorities are expected to keep monetary policy settings unchanged this year.
China’s economic growth accelerated slightly in Q1 2024. It hit 1.6% quarter-on-quarter (from 1.2% in Q4 2022) and 5.3% year-on-year (from 5.2% in the previous quarter). To support activity in 2024, the authorities have opted to strengthen their industrial policy whilst maintaining a prudent demand policy. The manufacturing export sector has posted the strongest performance in the past few months.
Against a backdrop of sluggish domestic demand and strategic rivalries, particularly with the US, the Chinese government is further developing its industrial policy to support economic growth and strengthen “national security“. Priority is being given to the high-tech and energy transition sectors. With considerable support from the government, these sectors are moving up the value chain, increasing their production capacity, lowering selling prices and winning export market share. The flood of green tech products is expected to lead to further trade conflicts in the coming months.
Economic indicators for the first two months of 2024 showed a slight improvement in activity, driven primarily by the export manufacturing sector. Growth in industrial production reached +7% y/y in real terms in January-February 2024 compared to +6% in Q4 2023, and manufacturing investment also strengthened slightly. It increased by +9.4% y/y in nominal terms over the first two months, after +6.5% over 2023 as a whole.
The post-Covid recovery in China’s economic activity was not as strong as expected in 2023. The property sector crisis deepened further at the end of the year, the demand for housing did not pick up again, and weak household confidence continues to weigh on household consumption. Conversely, the export-oriented manufacturing sector performed better than expected in the last quarter, in contrast with the performances of domestically oriented sectors. The authorities are maintaining an accommodative policy. However, the weak financial situation of local governments is constraining public investment, and the People's Bank Of China has little room for manoeuvre to revive credit growth. The banking sector is facing an increase in credit risk, but this is seemingly still under control.
Vietnam went through a number of difficulties in 2022 and 2023, related to the deterioration of the international environment, the severe correction in the property sector, the crisis of confidence and liquidity tensions in the banking sector. Economic growth stalled in early 2023, but then quickly accelerated again. Most notably, activity in the manufacturing export sector has been recovering for a few months, buoyed by healthy foreign direct investment inflows. These trends are expected to continue in the short term, with Vietnam being one of the major beneficiaries of the ongoing adjustments to global value chains.
The post-Covid recovery in China’s economic activity was not as strong as expected in 2023. The property sector crisis seemingly deepened further at the end of the year, the demand for housing did not pick up again despite support measures from the authorities, and weak household confidence weighs on private consumption. Conversely, the export-oriented manufacturing sector has performed better than expected over the past few months, in contrast with the performances of domestically oriented sectors.
BNP Paribas Economic Research wishes you all the best for 2024. On the macroeconomic front, the highlight of 2023 was the peak in official rates in the United States and the eurozone, but what is in store for 2024?In this video, you can discover the topics and points of attention that will be monitored throughout 2024 for each team: Banking Economy, OECD and Country Risk.
In Q4 2023, Chinese economic growth accelerated slightly to 5.2% year-on-year (y/y), compared to 4.9% in Q3. However, it lost momentum in quarter-on-quarter terms, standing at +1% q/q in Q4 vs. +1.5% in Q3. Our barometer seems to indicate a widespread improvement in activity in the last quarter of 2023 compared to the previous quarter, but this is still largely due to the post-Covid normalisation of domestic demand and significant base effects. Actually, the Chinese economy continues to face a large number of vulnerabilities, which are likely to persist in the short term.
The latest activity data for the Chinese economy reminds us once again of the fragility of the post-Covid recovery dynamic. Domestic demand is picking up, in particular thanks to the normalisation of private consumption, but significant headwinds remain. Meanwhile, the performance of the export sector seems to have improved slightly.
In China, economic growth is expected to stabilize in the coming quarters, after four years of multiple shocks and unusual volatility. Economic growth rates will stay below their pre-Covid level.
According to the latest economic data out of China, the post-Covid recovery remains on track, although its momentum remains weak. In October 2023, growth in the services sector accelerated further (to +7.7% year-on-year compared with +6.9% in September), buoyed by the improvement in the performance of retail sales (+7.8% year-on-year in October compared with +5.5% in September).
