Based in Paris, BNP Paribas' Economic Research Department is composed of economists and statisticians:
The Economic Research department’s mission is to cater to the economic research needs of the clients, business lines and functions of BNP Paribas. Our team of economists and statisticians covers a large number of advanced, developing and emerging countries, the real economy, financial markets and banking. As we foster the sharing of our research output with anyone who is interested in the economic situation or who needs insight into specific economic issues, this website presents our analysis, videos and podcasts.
01 58 16 05 84 johanna.melka@bnpparibas.com
Bank Indonesia unexpectedly cut its monetary policy rates on 18 September (-25 bps). This easing was largely due to the rupiah strengthening against the USD since August (+6.4%).
Indian economic growth reached 8.2% for the fiscal year 2023/2024. However, this performance did not enable Narendra Modi's ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) to retain a majority in parliament. Over the next five years, the BJP will have to deal with the smaller parties that are partners in the coalition it leads to run the country. Adopting new reforms to further liberalise the economy could prove difficult. In addition, the Prime Minister may have to change the structure of budget spending in order to increase once again the share of subsidies and other social transfers, which have been falling for the past five years
For the fiscal year 2023/2024, which ended at the end of March 2024, economic growth in India reached 8.2%, the highest rate among Asian countries. Over the past twenty years, growth reached 6.3% per year on average. Yet, despite this performance, India’s GDP per capita remains low. In addition, income inequalities have increased and unemployment rates are high (especially among young people), despite higher education levels. The low levels of income and employment can be explained by the employment structure, which remains concentrated in agriculture, a sector with low value added. Despite the major reforms adopted by the Modi government to stimulate development of the manufacturing industry, the sector did not create any jobs over the period 2012-2019
The reform policies initiated since Narendra Modi came to power in 2014 are expected to continue with his very likely re-election next June. His economic performance has been positive overall, with robust growth, a strengthening banking sector, a surging investment rate and infrastructural deficiencies being reduced. However, the country is still facing many substantial structural challenges. GDP per capita is still much lower than in other Asian countries (China, Vietnam and Indonesia), the manufacturing sector is barely growing and the country fails to create enough jobs for young people, who are still experiencing very high unemployment rates.
Subianto Prabowo will become the new President of Indonesia on 20 October. He will inherit a strong economy with robust and stable growth (5.1% on average over the last ten years, excluding the COVID-19 period), a low fiscal deficit, moderate public debt and sound external accounts. However, there are major challenges ahead for the new President. In the next decade, the country’s demographic dividend will begin to fade. He will need to adopt reforms more quickly in order to get significantly more young people and women into employment and attract more foreign direct investment. Without this, Indonesia will become an “old” country before it becomes a "high income" country.
Downward pressure on Asian currencies increased slightly last week, with the geopolitical and monetary climate becoming less favourable. This recent pressure has been fuelled by fears of rising international oil prices as a result of the conflict in the Middle East, on the one hand, and the shifting stance of the US Federal Reserve on the other. However, the Indian rupee has held up better than other Asian currencies so far.
India’s economic activity remained healthy during the first half of the current fiscal year. Over the 2023/2024 full year, it is expected to be close to 7%, boosted mainly by sustained private and public investment. The rise in the investment rate for the second year in a row is particularly beneficial, as it addresses one of the country’s structural fragilities. Up until now, the constraints on production factors (both labour and capital) and the country’s lack of integration into global trade have made it less appealing, as evidenced by the further drop in FDI flows (-0.9% of GDP) over the first three quarters of 2023. However, the moderate current account deficit and large foreign exchange reserves are reducing the downward pressures on the rupee.
In Malaysia, economic growth remained robust in 2023 even if it decelerated due to unfavourable base effects. Domestic demand was the principal driver, whereas exports contracted substantially. The outlook for 2024 remains positive and economic growth is expected to recover slightly. The main areas of concern are the developments on the property market and in the construction sector (which contains a large number of the most fragile companies), the consolidation of public finances (which is still happening very gradually) and the evolution of external accounts
More than 18 months after defaulting on its external debt payments, Sri Lanka’s macroeconomic position has improved, but remains very fragile.
In 2023, for the second consecutive year, Malaysia’s external accounts have deteriorated slightly, but are still strong. Over the first nine months of the year, the current account surplus decreased by 18.3% compared to the same period last year. The strong rebound in tourism has not been enough to offset the decline in the trade surplus caused by the global economic slowdown and the sharp contraction in demand for semiconductors and electronic products, which account for 36.3% of the country’s exports.
In Q2 2023, Indian economic growth remained solid. But since the summer, the situation has deteriorated slightly. In addition to the contraction in exports, rural demand is slowing. Inflation has rebounded and downward pressures on the rupee have increased slightly due to the sharp slowdown in capital inflows. External accounts are expected to remain under pressure until the end of the year. The sharp rise in oil prices and a below-normal monsoon are weighing on the trade deficit and fuelling inflationary pressures. In addition, the narrowing yield spread between Indian and US government bonds is limiting portfolio investment. So far, the banking sector has weathered the rise in interest rates well
Despite the global economic slowdown, Indonesia’s economic growth has remained robust. Inflationary pressures remain contained despite rising rice prices. Public finances have strengthened and the fiscal deficit has fallen below the regulatory threshold of 3% of GDP a year earlier than expected. Although government debt is higher than before the crisis, it remains modest and its refinancing is less reliant on portfolio investments. The increase in the payment of interests on debt should be monitored as it reduces the government’s fiscal leeway to support the economy
In India, economic growth is holding up thanks in particular to slowing inflation and early signs of an improvement in the labour market. Public finances, which consolidated slightly during the fiscal year 2022/2023, remain much more fragile than five years ago. The government is favouring growth over fiscal consolidation. Capital expenditure continues to increase, even though room for manoeuvre is shrinking due to the high and rising interest payments on government debt. The sharp rise in public investment has improved the quality of infrastructure, which should attract a little more foreign investment
Apart from being located in South Asia, Sri Lanka, Pakistan and Bangladesh have the common weakness of being very vulnerable to exogenous shocks, particularly those related to the commodity cycle and climate change. The Covid-19 epidemic and the very sharp rise in commodity prices in 2021 and 2022 have therefore exacerbated the macroeconomic imbalances of these countries, whose public finances and external accounts were already fragile. Consequently, Sri Lanka defaulted on its external debt in 2022. This is not yet the case in Pakistan, although the risk is very high. As for Bangladesh, it has been much more resilient to shocks than its two neighbours and should escape a default.
According to the United Nations, India’s population surpassed that of China in April. This strong population growth is seen as a considerable asset for the Indian economy. However, the very high level of youth unemployment (despite robust economic growth) is a source of concern, and some fear that India’s demographic advantage may become a social risk.
In 2022, economic growth slowed but was still buoyant. The outlook for 2023/2024 is favourable even though real GDP growth should slow by around 1 percentage point. In the short term, the main risks are linked to rising prices, which could force the Central Bank to tighten its monetary policy further. The occurrence of the El Niño phenomenon is also a potentially negative factor. Despite the slowdown in growth and the rise in interest rates (48% of loans are at a variable rate), banks and companies remain much stronger than at the end of 2019. In its latest stress tests, the Central Bank reaffirmed that, despite the deteriorating economic and financial environment, public banks would not need any capital injection to meet capital requirements.
Over the past twelve months, the economic situation in Pakistan has deteriorated dramatically. The government has been facing a balance-of-payments crisis and, as a result, has had to take extensive measures to try to contain the drop in its foreign exchange reserves and fulfil the IMF’s requirements in order to receive the funds needed to avoid defaulting on its external debt.Restrictions on imports, the sharp rise in policy rates, the depreciation of the rupee and the dramatic cut in budget spending have significantly hindered economic growth and triggered a very sharp rise in inflationary pressures. Since February 2023, the external position has improved very slightly. However, it is still very fragile and the default risk remains very high.
The Indian economy coped well with the external environment in 2022, but slowed down mainly because of inflationary pressures. Over the fiscal year which will end in March 2023, the budget deficit could exceed the initial target, but the overrun should be marginal and the debt-to-GDP ratio should continue to fall. The government’s refinancing risks remain contained. On the other hand, the tensions on external accounts are likely to remain relatively strong, mainly as a result of the fall in exports in an unfavourable international context. Nonetheless, the central bank should be able to contain the depreciation of the rupee. While foreign exchange reserves have fallen significantly, they are still sufficient to cover the country’s external financing needs.
Malaysia’s economy held up well in 2022. Economic growth may have exceeded 8% and public finances strengthened thanks to the sharp rise in oil revenues. Furthermore, although external accounts weakened due to capital outflows and increased imports, the current account balance remained in surplus and the ringgit depreciated moderately against the dollar over the year as a whole. The outlook for 2023 is less favourable. Economic growth is expected to decelerate given the monetary tightening and the global economic slowdown. Public finance risks are still contained even though debt remains above pre-crisis levels. The new government should present its 2023 budget in parliament at the end of February. Its budgetary strategy should be in line with that of the previous government
Summary: In November, Anwar Ibrahim became the new prime minister but the political environment remains particularly unstable. However, in the past three years, the Malaysia’s economy has been buoyant and resisted fairly well to successive external shocks. Economic growth is robust. Although public finances are still weaker than before the pandemic crisis, they have strengthened since the beginning of the year.
Although it remains dynamic, economic growth slowed in the first quarter of the current fiscal year. Monetary policy tightening, a very mixed monsoon season and disruption to global value chains are expected to weigh on activity during the next two quarters. The central bank has revised its economic growth forecasts downwards for the current fiscal year as a whole. At the same time, pressures on external accounts and the rupee are set to remain strong. Despite this rather unfavourable environment, enterprises and banks are holding up well.
During the first six months of 2022, the economy proved to be quite resilient to the consequences of the conflict in Ukraine and China’s zero-Covid policy. In particular, it benefited from the higher prices of exported commodities (mainly coal and palm oil). Its public finances and external accounts consolidated despite rising subsidies and net capital outflows. However, the situation could deteriorate in the fourth quarter and the medium-term outlook is less favourable. Although the fiscal deficit and government debt remain modest, refinancing risks will increase in 2023 in conjunction with the end of purchases by the central bank of government’s bonds, which have been in place since 2020. Moreover, pressures on the rupiah will intensify with the fall in commodity prices.
The IMF and the Government of Pakistan have reached an agreement to complete the combined 7th and 8th reviews of Pakistan’s Extended Fund Facility which has been interrupted since March. If the IMF Executive Board approves the deal in the coming weeks, Pakistan will receive the equivalent of almost USD 1.2 billion. An extension of the support programme from September 2022 to June 2023 could allow the country to receive an additional SDR 720 million (i.e. approximately USD 947 million). Although this agreement will partially and temporarily ease pressure on the country’s external accounts, the risk of a balance-of-payments crisis remains high. The high pressures on the Pakistani rupee have not eased
At the end of the 2021/2022 fiscal year, India’s real GDP exceeded its pre-crisis level, and economic activity indicators were positive in April and May 2022. Activity has been supported by a recovery in domestic demand and dynamic exports. Faced with rising inflation and downward pressure on the rupee (due to capital outflows and a widening trade deficit), the monetary authorities raised their policy rates in May and June – further increases are expected. Conversely, fiscal policy is more expansionary than anticipated. Multilateral institutions and India’s Central Bank have revised their growth forecasts downwards (between 6.9% and 7.5% for the 2022/2023 fiscal year vs. 8.7% in the previous year)
The Covid-19 pandemic weakened Indonesia’s economy. Two years after the crisis, real GDP has returned to 2019 levels, but the labour market is still weak, the poverty rate is higher than before the crisis and investment remains subdued. According to the World Bank, the pandemic’s lasting impact on education and the labour market will cost the country 0.1 points of its long-term growth potential. Today, Indonesia must deal with a new unfavourable economic environment as commodity prices have dramatically increased due to the conflict in Ukraine and sanctions against Russia. Although growth is bound to be squeezed by the Ukrainian conflict, Indonesia’s external accounts should remain healthy and inflationary pressures should remain moderate
