see also EcoTV Week

On the Same Theme

Covid-19, lockdown and the environment 9/8/2020
In the first episode of this series of podcasts, William De Vijlder and François Doux will look at the concept of externalities to consider how lockdowns, by limiting human and economic activity considerably, have affected the environment. They also examine the notion of “green swan” risks; climate-related risks that could threaten the economy.
Towards a lasting change in the way we produce and consume? 9/8/2020
In the second episode, François Doux and William De Vijlder discuss the profound social changes that the pandemic has brought about. The virus has put health at the centre of people’s worlds, and stimulated new interest in environmental issues. William De Vijlder explains why these changes in behaviour and mindset could prove to be long-lasting.
Killing two birds with one stone: fiscal policy to boost growth and meet climate goals 9/8/2020
In this final episode, William De Vijlder analyses the responses of European governments to the crisis generated by the pandemic. How to stimulate and maintain economic growth whilst at the same time developing an environmental policy that meets the challenges of climate change? The “Next Generation EU” plan recently launched by the European Commission is discussed from this viewpoint.
Covid-19 and the outlook for inflation: a monetary approach 7/22/2020
In the first episode, William De Vijlder emphasizes that the risk of an increase in inflation is high on the list of frequently asked questions by clients. To tackle the negative effects of the pandemic on the economy, central banks have relaxed their monetary policies and increased the size of their balance sheets by making massive injections of liquidity into the system. For Monetarists (followers of the Chicago School, founded by Milton Friedman), this increase in money supply is the root cause of inflation. Will this theory be borne out in the current economic context?
Covid-19 and the outlook for inflation in the real economy 7/22/2020
In the second episode, William De Vijlder turns to the real economy and examines the factors that could produce inflation. He draws the distinction between headline inflation and core inflation. Could core inflation, which is affected by tensions in the labour market and the markets for goods and services but also by inflation expectations, see an acceleration under current circumstances? William De Vijlder also looks at the supply side shock and the disruption of global value chains as a result of the pandemic. We will see how changes to these value chains could produce inflation.
Inflation, perceived inflation and expected inflation: very different things 7/22/2020
In the final episode, William De Vijlder turns to the psychological factors in play when it comes to inflation. We will see that inflation, perceived inflation and expected inflation are three very different notions. William also looks at relative prices and absolute prices and discusses how the Covid-19 pandemic has affected prices and the nature of demand. Lastly, he will look at the possible impact of the pandemic on the strategy of central banks in terms of monetary policy over the coming years.
Support measures and recovery plans in emerging and developed countries 7/10/2020
To address the economic crisis, governments and monetary authorities have implemented a broad range measures, sometimes moving beyond what had been expected. The central banks of certain developing economies have cautiously started a quantitative easing programme, whereas the main central banks of the developed countries have again turned massively to QE.
Money supply and the risk of inflation 7/10/2020
The central banks’ massive liquidity injections raise fears – at least theoretically – of an upsurge in inflation. How likely is this? Given the size of the quantitative easing measures which have been announced and the subdued outlook for inflation, central bank balance sheets are unlikely to be scaled back any time soon.
Prospects of a recovery in the months ahead 7/10/2020
Activity and confidence indicators show a rebound has started but this could create an illusion that the economy is stronger than expected. Faced with pervasive uncertainty, the recovery is bound to be gradual.
COVID-19: Key measures taken by governments and central banks 6/17/2020
Major economic policy responses have been introduced to try to attenuate the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the economy. This document reviews the key measures taken by central banks and governments in a large number of countries as well as those taken by international organisations. It includes measures that were introduced through 15 June. It will be updated regularly.

ABOUT US Three teams of economists (OECD countries research, emerging economies and country risk, banking economics) make up BNP Paribas Economic Research Department.
This website presents their analyses.
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