Based in Paris, BNP Paribas' Economic Research Department is composed of economists and statisticians:
The Economic Research department’s mission is to cater to the economic research needs of the clients, business lines and functions of BNP Paribas. Our team of economists and statisticians covers a large number of advanced, developing and emerging countries, the real economy, financial markets and banking. As we foster the sharing of our research output with anyone who is interested in the economic situation or who needs insight into specific economic issues, this website presents our analysis, videos and podcasts.
Global macroeconomic research oversees the work of the Advanced and Emerging economies teams.
+331 58 16 03 63 helene.baudchon@bnpparibas.com
Has household consumption, the driving force behind French growth, stalled? Or was it actually in the process of rebounding? In 2019, household consumption rose at an average annual rate of 1.5% in real terms, which is considered to be a disappointing performance. But “disappointing” on what grounds and from which standpoint? Are we really dealing with a feeble rebound? These are difficult questions to answer, since everything depends on the perspective we take and the determinants we look at. In this article, we will try to put household consumption into context, and provide answers and explanations for the above issues. In a descriptive analysis in part one, we examine household consumption’s role as a growth engine, its momentum and composition. The second part is explanatory
After a rapid restart in May and June, the economy was back to 95% of its normal level in August. However, the improvement is now slowing as the automatic catch-up effects fall away and as substantial disparities between sectors and persistent public health constraints and uncertainties remain in play. Even so, Q3 is expected to see a substantial rebound (of around 15% q/q). It will be in Q4 that growth is likely to fall back like a soufflé. This period will determine the next chapter in the recovery. Hence the significance of the stimulus package in its double role of softening the blow from the crisis and boosting the recovery now under way. We estimate that this package will add 0.6 of a point to growth in 2021, taking it to 6.9%, after a contraction of 9.8% in 2020.
Signs of the French economic recovery since the lockdown was lifted on 11 May are starting to show in our Pulse barometer...
While the economic horizon cleared up a bit in May, the improvement was much bigger in June. Given its construction, our Pulse does not yet show any traces of this rebound, which is just as remarkable as the preceding plunge [...]
The shape of the post-crisis recovery will depend on the characteristics of each economy, the fiscal response and the level of integration in global value chains. Even before the COVID-19 crisis, some eurozone economies were more vulnerable than others. High levels of debt or unemployment could limit the strength of the recovery. At a domestic level, the sectoral structure, the pattern of private consumption and the labour market situation will be crucial. A high dependency on tourism, a sector durably impacted by the crisis, could hold back the recovery. At the external level, a slow recovery in global trade would hit the most open economies. Moreover, the distortions in global value chains during this crisis could weaken the most highly-integrated economies over a longer period.
