Putting a number on the consequences of the coronavirus is a huge challenge. On some of the topics we have a satisfactory level of visibility of the order of magnitude: international spillover effects of the demand shock, repercussions of the global increase in uncertainty. The visibility is much lower concerning the effects of the supply disruption. This is even more the case for the impact on China. In the near term, data surprises –the difference between the consensus forecast and the outcome- should be higher than normal. However, provided that the peak of the epidemic is reached quickly, visibility should improve quickly and hence support confidence.
Credit impulse in the euro zone stabilised in December 2019 (up 0.3%, as in November) against a background of a slight slowing of real GDP growth in the fourth quarter (1.0% from 1.2% in the third quarter). Outstanding bank lending to the private sector maintained its pace of growth in December (up 3.7% year-on-year). For the second month in a row, growth in lending to NFCs was less than that in lending to consumers. The slowdown in growth in lending to NFCs (where the year-on-year figure fell from 3.8% in October to 3.2% in December) was due mainly to lower investment spending (in France, Germany and most particularly Spain). This was in part offset by strong growth in consumer loans (from 3.5% to 3.7%)
