Recent data show business and consumer sentiment has peaked and real GDP growth is expected to slow down whilst remaining well above potential. A key factor in this respect is the self-reinforcing interaction between spending, company profits and employment, against a background of easy monetary and financial conditions. In using the popular metaphor, until recently, the economic sky looked quite blue but clouds have been gathering. The message of central banks should become a bit more hawkish, in the US, political disagreement influences the economic agenda of the Biden administration and China is going through a major adjustment phase
On the whole, the US economy has recovered very quickly, albeit unequally, from the loss of business caused by the Covid-19 pandemic. Exceptional Federal transfers have fuelled a spectacular rebound in private consumption, so much so that it is nearly overheating. Faced with a global parts shortage and hiring troubles, companies are having a hard time meeting demand. Prices have come under pressure. For the US Federal Reserve, the time has come to begin withdrawing monetary support. The debt ceiling has just been hit, and major budget bills remain in suspense until an agreement to raise the limit can be reached with the Republicans.
The Chinese economy is in the midst of a period of major adjustments. They arose after Beijing tightened regulations in a variety of sectors, from housing to certain new technologies and activities linked to the societal challenges facing the country. The adjustments can also be attributed to the debt excess problem of some state-owned and private enterprises, and reflect the authorities’ determination to tighten their access to credit and to clean up practices in the financial sector. As a result, an increasing number of corporates is defaulting, and the troubles of the property developer Evergrande are symptomatic of the changes under way
The economy is likely to rebound in Q4 as health restrictions are being eased. Moreover, despite supply chain disruptions, the manufacturing sector should profit from the worldwide recovery. The consumption boom is likely to peter out soon, as wages growth is to remain sluggish. The main domestic support will come from the government spending, backed up by Bank of Japan (BoJ) ’s yield curve control policy, and business investment thanks to improved profitability. Prime Minister Suga’s resignation, although welcomed by financial markets, has rekindled fears that Japan may return to the “revolving door” era, in which the country changes prime minister every year.
After rebounding vigorously in Q2 (+2.2% q/q), GDP growth is expected to maintain the same dynamic pace in Q3. Admittedly, supply-side constraints have just chipped away a few tenths of a percentage point of growth from our June forecast. September’s business climate surveys are showing more traces of these tensions, especially in industry, and in Germany in particular. Even so, the survey results are still holding at high levels. Growth in the Eurozone will get a boost from the monetary and fiscal accommodation, the freeing of forced savings built-up by households, the recovering job market and the need for investment. We expect 2022 growth to be slightly higher than in 2021 (5.2% and 5%, respectively, in annual average terms)
After a strong recovery in Q2 and Q3, activity in the coming months could slow due to supply disruptions and sharp rising input prices. After his victory in the legislative elections, Olaf Scholz enters negotiations with the Greens and the liberals on forming a new coalition. The policies are likely to focus on protecting the environment and raising low wages. At the European level, the policies of the new coalition should not be very different from those of Angela Merkel.
Despite April’s lockdown, French GDP rose strongly in Q2 2021, up 1.1% q/q. The lockdown’s negative impact was very mild, and the economy rebounded strongly in June. Q3 growth is expected to reach 2.2% q/q, on the one hand buoyed by Q2 strong momentum, but on the other hand curbed by the supply-side constraints at work. In business climate surveys, optimism still prevails, although it has been fading since June. In Q4, GDP growth is expected to virtually close the gap, covering the last percentage point before economic activity returns to 100% of pre-crisis levels. This would bring average annual growth to 6.3% in 2021. In 2022, GDP growth is expected to return to more normal levels although it will remain strong, bolstered by the fiscal impulse
The economic recovery has gradually gained momentum, becoming increasingly more widespread for various components and sectors. The improvement in the overall scenario has boosted optimism among companies, supporting business investment. While manufacturing activity had begun to increase in H2 2020, the services sector benefited from an upswing in consumption in Q2, despite the still disappointing international tourism trends. A wind of surprising optimism continues to blow through the Italian real-estate market, driven mainly by home purchases by many families keen to improve their housing conditions. In Q2 2021, residential sales recorded +70% growth compared to Q2 2020, and +26.1% compared to Q2 2019.
After the disappointing economic growth reported in H1 2021, Spain should record a robust rebound in activity in H2, assuming the health situation does not deteriorate. The inflow of tourists has picked up (but remains historically low) and employment has recovered. Yet inflationary risks are intensifying. With the surge in energy prices, the government was forced to take drastic measures to reduce the energy bill for households, which will weigh on public finances. Faced with a persistently uncertain environment, the government is bound to maintain an expansionist policy when it unveils its 2022 budget this fall, even though the health situation is more favourable for the moment thanks to the high level of vaccinations
Following the gradual lifting of health restrictions, the economy rebounded strongly in Q2 and this dynamism continued in Q3. Despite the favourable economic climate and the satisfactory state of public finances, the political parties are still struggling to form a government even six months after the legislative elections. Nonetheless, the outlook remains bright, especially thanks to the rapid expansion of world trade.
Belgian GDP increased by 1.7% in the second quarter. Consequently, quarterly GDP came within 2% of its pre-covid level. We expect full year growth to come in at 5.5% this year, slowing down to 3.0% in 2022. Increased government spending helped stave off worse outcomes for the labour market and Belgian firms, which resulted in a quick rebound in investment-related spending by all sectors. Private consumption is rebounding more gradually against a backdrop of GDP growth slowing down.
Portugal’s vaccination campaign seems to be paying off. It is the country that has vaccinated the most people in Europe – and one of the most advanced in the world – with nearly 85% of the population fully vaccinated at the end of September. The number of Covid-19 cases has fallen sharply after a surge in June-July due to the spread of the Delta variant. Portugal’s economic recovery was slower than in most of the other European countries through Q2 2021, in part because it was hit by a more severe wave of the pandemic last winter. However, employment and housing activity have picked up strongly. As in several European countries, new risks have arisen as the pandemic wanes
After paying a heavy toll to the Covid 19 pandemic, the UK is getting back on its feet. Now that more than 80% of the adult population has been vaccinated, the UK economy was able to reopen for business this summer and to operate almost normally despite the spread of the highly contagious Delta variant. Just as the recovery is running up against supply-side constraints, the government of Boris Johnson is removing fiscal support measures as it proclaims the end of “whatever the cost”. Euphoric so far, the recovery should calm down somewhat by the end of the year.
Initially tempted to experiment with herd immunity to combat Covid-19, the Scandinavian country with the highest number of Covid-related deaths has largely converted to vaccinations, and the economy is on its way to returning to normal. Sweden is taking advantage of its specialisation in machinery and transport equipment, for which there is currently strong global demand. Dynamic exports are boosting corporate investment. As the Riksbank prepares to end its securities purchasing policy, the Swedish government is trying to avoid withdrawing its fiscal support too abruptly.
With relatively few Covid-19-related deaths, and after what proved to be a mild recession in 2020, Denmark is one of the countries that has pulled through the pandemic the best. Economic activity has already returned to pre-crisis levels, the cyclical environment was still going strong over the summer months, and the spread of the Delta variant did not pose much of a threat to a largely vaccinated population. The rapid economic recovery is already revealing a few tensions in terms of production capacity and employment. The central bank is not very alarmed and is expected to maintain the status quo, with negative money market rates. The government has begun to better target its subsidies.
