Emerging countries have recently faced a series of unexpected and severe shocks that will significantly dampen their economic performance in 2022. Global inflation has increased due to rising commodity prices and world supply disruptions resulting from the conflict in Ukraine. The lockdowns in China’s industrial regions during the spring have aggravated supply problems and further worsened the global economic outlook. Moreover, monetary policies have tightened in most countries, while external financing conditions have also deteriorated due to the weakening in global investor sentiment and US monetary policy tightening. Emerging markets have already faced a bout of large capital outflows since the beginning of the year
Economic activity contracted in April and May 2022 as a result of severe mobility restrictions imposed in industrial regions such as Shanghai. Since late May, these restrictions have been gradually lifted, and activity has begun to bounce back. However, downside risks to economic growth remain high. The authorities therefore continue to ease their policy mix cautiously. On the fiscal front, support measures remain focused on infrastructure projects and aid to enterprises. On the monetary front, interest rates have been cut since the beginning of the year, and targeted lending programmes have been extended. However, the effectiveness of the central bank’s action is reduced by the weak demand for credit
At the end of the 2021/2022 fiscal year, India’s real GDP exceeded its pre-crisis level, and economic activity indicators were positive in April and May 2022. Activity has been supported by a recovery in domestic demand and dynamic exports. Faced with rising inflation and downward pressure on the rupee (due to capital outflows and a widening trade deficit), the monetary authorities raised their policy rates in May and June – further increases are expected. Conversely, fiscal policy is more expansionary than anticipated. Multilateral institutions and India’s Central Bank have revised their growth forecasts downwards (between 6.9% and 7.5% for the 2022/2023 fiscal year vs. 8.7% in the previous year)
Korea’s solid macroeconomic fundamentals have made it one of the countries that has best withstood the COVID-19 pandemic. Economic growth prospects remain relatively positive. The new government, in office since May, spelled out its intention to continue the reforms begun during the previous administration, and, in particular, aims to increase research and development expenditure. Household debt rose rapidly in 2021 and is high, but the macro-prudential measures put in place by the authorities seem to be bearing fruit: the rise in debt has slowed and financial stability risks are contained.
The Taiwanese economy has been very resilient to the multiple external shocks of the past two years. The export sector has benefited greatly from the rise in global demand for high-tech goods. In addition, domestic demand has benefited from fiscal support and an accommodative monetary policy. In 2022, economic growth is constrained by many factors (the wave of Omicron in the spring, supply disruptions linked to the chaotic situation in China, rising inflation and monetary policy tightening, and a less favourable international environment). The economic growth slowdown may lead only to a limited deterioration in the quality of bank loans. Nevertheless, the real estate sector, after a sharp rise in prices since 2019, could see a correction.
The economic situation in Turkey offers striking contrasts between (i) sustained growth until Q1 2022 and stubbornly huge inflation, (ii) much greater confidence among companies than among households, (iii) a primary budget surplus and a deteriorating current account deficit due to the surge in the price of energy, and (iv) domestic borrowing conditions for the State at an unprecedented negative real rate despite massive outflows from portfolio investments. Economic policy still combines a deliberately accommodative monetary policy and a competitive exchange rate to stimulate investment, exports and import substitution
Economic growth remained very dynamic until the first quarter of this year. Strong wages growth and significant government measures to back up purchasing power over this period have supported consumer spending. Inflation rose sharply in recent months but remained lower compared to other Central European countries, due to a price cap on certain food and energy related goods. Economic growth is expected to slow down significantly in 2023, owing to the deterioration in the international environment, monetary and fiscal tightening from H2 2022. The temporary suspension of European funds presents a serious challenge given that budget and current account deficits have increased and external liquidity has eroded.
The last two quarters have been marked by slower growth in economic activity. This is mainly attributed to weaker levels of consumer spending. Furthermore, the country is still very exposed to supply chain disruptions in the automotive sector to a great extent, which adversely impacts both industrial activity and exports. The expected slowdown in the global economy in 2022 will also affect growth given the country’s high exposure to trade. Inflation has probably not yet peaked, which means that monetary tightening is likely to continue in the short term.
Economic activity held up well in the first half of the year, but a slowdown in GDP growth is coming and expected to intensify over the second semester. The recovery of the labour market continues. However, the retreat of unemployment has come at the cost of a temporary drop in productivity. Inflation, which has registered double digits growth over the past nine months, is spreading more widely throughout the economy. Looking forward, monetary policy could be increasingly constrained by the announcement of new fiscal support. The latter coupled with the continued weakening of the main fiscal rule could weigh on risk premia and inflation expectations. The enthusiasm that prevailed earlier in the year for Brazilian assets is losing steam.
Peruvian GDP returned to its pre-crisis level thanks to the strong upturn in activity recorded in 2021. However, the country’s capacity to rebound further is limited and short-to-medium-term growth prospects are moderate. Firstly, inflation pressures are weighing on private consumption and disruptions in the value chains are hampering the export sector. Secondly, the continuing political crisis is dampening the investment outlook. In addition, public finances have deteriorated over the past two years. It is not so much the level of debt, which is still moderate, but its composition which is worrying and is making the country more vulnerable to changes in investor sentiment.
The economic recovery should be sustained in 2022 due to the sharp increase in hydrocarbon production following the OPEC+ agreements and due to stronger growth in household consumption. The current oil trend is favourable to public finances, while the process of fiscal consolidation and revenue diversification is expected to continue. It has already led to a significant reduction in the fiscal breakeven oil price and therefore less exposure to oil market volatility. In the meantime, tensions have emerged on the interbank market and have required an injection of liquidity by the central bank
Following five consecutive years of recession, Angola’s economic outlook is brightening: the country should return to growth, expected to be +3% in 2022, benefiting from a favourable economic situation marked by the upward trajectory of the oil price and a resumption of national production of hydrocarbons. The resulting increase in budget revenues and exports should support the kwanza. This dynamic is helping to ease the pressures on the country’s external financing needs and debt sustainability, which has improved thanks to the reprofiling agreement concluded with China in early 2021. Nevertheless, the Angolan economy remains prone to significant vulnerabilities
The Nigerian economy is experiencing mixed fortunes. Its low level of oil production does not allow it to benefit fully from the rise in oil prices. The current account balance is expected to return to a surplus this year, though the persistence of a rigid exchange rate regime continues to weigh on the economy’s attractiveness and the availability of liquidity in dollars. The commodity price shock is exacerbating already strong inflationary pressures, and the budget deficit will remain high due to the continuation of an energy subsidies policy that has become too expensive. For the time being, this is not jeopardising the strength of the economic recovery. However, the weakening macroeconomic stability leaves the economy vulnerable to further setbacks in the future.
