In this issue of January 16, 2023 : the editorial “US: leading indicators, the labour market and the recession narrative” of William De Vijlder, the global trade and vaccination indicators, the economic scenario, the market overviews and the calendars.
Despite the ongoing good pace of job creation and slower wage increases, which through its impact on inflation could influence future Fed policy, there is enough ambiguity in the recent data to fuel the debate on whether the US will end up in recession or not. The survey of professional forecasters points towards heightened recession risk and so do the inversion of the yield curve and the downtrend of the Conference Board’s index of leading economic indicators. If this index were to decline further, one would expect, based on the past relationship, a significant weakening in the monthly payroll numbers whereby the narrative that a recession is around the corner would gather force.
The second half of 2022 was marked by a significant and generalised fall in global transportation costs, accompanied by a freeing up of supply chains. Global maritime freight fell back to levels almost five times lower than at the peak in autumn 2021. Only transportation costs for liquefied natural gas (LNG) increased significantly, due to Russian gas shortages, although prices have also fallen back since December.
Between 4 and 10 January, 3.4 million new cases of Covid-19 were recorded worldwide, representing a fall of -3% compared to the previous week. This is the third consecutive week of falling infections following seven weeks of almost continuous increases. The number of new cases continues to fall sharply in South America (-24%) and, to a lesser extent, in Europe (-12%).
Outlook for GDP growth, inflation, interest rates and exchange rates
The latest economic indicators updated on January 16, 2023 and the coming calendar
