In this issue, William De Vijlder's editorial, Laurent Quignon's analysis of the credit impulse, and the update of our markets overview and economic scenario sections.
The message following the FOMC meeting of 30 April-1May, was unambiguous. It will take longer than expected to reach the point of confidence on the inflation outlook that would warrant a cut in the federal funds rate. Consequently, we are back in a ‘high for long’ environment for the federal funds rate, like in the fall of last year. At the current juncture the key question is whether the economy can remain as resilient if the federal funds rate stays at its current level until the latter part of the year, or even longer, or whether the risk of a hard landing is increasing
In line with previous months, the recovery in the private sector credit impulse continued in the first quarter of 2024, after the dip seen in the third quarter of 2023. This said, the recovery was slightly slower than at the end of 2023 and the overall trend is still negative. Developments in lending to business are traditionally more volatile over the cycle than those in lending to households. Recent ones have not deviated from this rule: in the autumn of 2023, at a time when the effects of the tightening of monetary policy were at their strongest, the impulse of lending to households did not fall as far, in absolute terms, as that for lending to businesses. Conversely, its recovery since then has been less vigorous
GDP growth, inflation, interest and exchange rates.
