In this issue, William De Vijlder's editorial, Tarik Rharrab's analysis of the latest PMI indices and the update of our markets' review and economic scenario sections.
In the US, household deleveraging, fixed rate mortgages, rising financial income on the back of higher interest rates and dividends, in combination with an increase in net worth have contributed to the resilience of households in an environment of aggressive monetary tightening. Nevertheless, some caution is warranted. Aggregate data, by construction, do not shed light on the heterogeneity of households. The financially fragile categories will need to be monitored closely in an environment of high rates for longer, in view of possible spillover effects to the broader economy should their situation worsen significantly.
In April, the S&P Global composite PMI index for worldwide business activity rose again slightly (+0.1 points) reaching its highest level since July 2023 (52.4). This rise results from the increase in services, with the associated PMI hitting its highest level since July 2023 (52.7, compared to 52.4 in March). Conversely, the manufacturing index fell slightly in April (50.3, -0.3pp), following three months of growth. However, it is still in expansionary territory.
GDP growth, inflation, exchange and interest rates
