Based in Paris, BNP Paribas' Economic Research Department is composed of economists and statisticians:
The Economic Research department’s mission is to cater to the economic research needs of the clients, business lines and functions of BNP Paribas. Our team of economists and statisticians covers a large number of advanced, developing and emerging countries, the real economy, financial markets and banking. As we foster the sharing of our research output with anyone who is interested in the economic situation or who needs insight into specific economic issues, this website presents our analysis, videos and podcasts.
+331 58 16 73 32 jean-luc.proutat@bnpparibas.com
GDP growth slowed sharply in 2019, and this trend is expected to be confirmed in 2020. Uncertainty surrounding the business climate and international trade are straining exports and investment. Consumption is barely rising and is unlikely to revitalize growth. Despite this environment, and with inflation near the central bank’s 2% target rate, the Riksbank opted to raise its key policy rate from -0.25% to 0%. Even so, monetary policy is still accommodating.
In a less buoyant international environment, Denmark’s small open economy managed to maintain a rather dynamic pace. Thanks to its sector specialisation (pharmaceuticals, digital, etc.), the economy has been fairly resilient despite the downturn in the global manufacturing cycle. A labour market verging on full employment and accelerating wage growth have bolstered consumption, which is still one of the main growth engines. With the Danish krone (DKK) pegged to the euro, the central bank’s monetary policy will follow in line with ECB trends, and is bound to remain very accommodating. Fiscal policy will be geared towards the ecological targets of reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
The UK’s general election on 12 December gave Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s Conservative Party a substantial majority in the House of Commons. The way is now clear for ratification of the Withdrawal Agreement (Brexit) by the UK and the European Union, and this will come into force after the 31 January 2020 at the latest. There will then follow a transitional period, during which the UK and EU will have to determine the framework of their future relationship. However, at just eleven months long, this period threatens to be too short to implement the clean break sought by Mr Johnson. Unless it is to fall back on WTO rules, the UK will only be able to disentangle its links with the EU through a long and delicate process. In effect, Brexit is only at the beginning.
Certain gases in the atmosphere, such as carbon dioxide (CO2), are largely opaque to the Earth’s infrared radiation and keep heat at the Earth’s surface trapped, like a lid. This is the greenhouse effect, identified in 1824 by French mathematician Joseph Fourier. Its intensity has always varied, but human activity has caused it to disrupt. Since the pre-industrial era – generally accepted as the period from 1850 to 1900 – human activity has caused 2,000 billion tonnes of CO2 to be released into the atmosphere, increasing the Earth’s temperature by 1°C. That increase is now accelerating. It will reach 3-5°C by 2100 if carbon emissions continue at their current trend. Few species can adapt to that rate of change, which is a hundred times faster than during interglacial periods of warming
