Based in Paris, BNP Paribas' Economic Research Department is composed of economists and statisticians:
The Economic Research department’s mission is to cater to the economic research needs of the clients, business lines and functions of BNP Paribas. Our team of economists and statisticians covers a large number of advanced, developing and emerging countries, the real economy, financial markets and banking. As we foster the sharing of our research output with anyone who is interested in the economic situation or who needs insight into specific economic issues, this website presents our analysis, videos and podcasts.
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With deaths from Covid-19 having exceeded the startling level of 500,000 in the US, other cheerier statistics have driven the markets forward; The acceleration in the vaccination campaign, which has already administered 100 million doses, and the associated fall in the number of new cases, to close to their lowest level since the pandemic began, have, day by day, built hope that the crisis is nearing its end...
Proponents of debt cancellation programmes sometimes argue that public debt will never be paid off, but that is not the question. In France, public debt denominated in euros (or in euro-equivalent francs before 1999) has increased constantly throughout the post-war period, without anyone dreaming of cancelling it. The high growth and inflation rates of the Thirty Glorious Years worked their magic. Between 1945 and 1975, debt outstanding increased about 10-fold, with the franc’s depreciation bolstering the external component, while the debt ratio plunged from over 100% of GDP to less than 20%. In 2021, following a series of crises (the financial and euro crises, and then the Covid-19 crisis), debt has soared to peak levels again (117.8% of GDP according to European Commission estimates)
Even as the Covid-19 pandemic spreads to more victims than ever in the United States, there have never been such high hopes for a recovery. With the number of deaths averaging nearly 3000 a day since January 15 – 50% more than during the April 2020 peak – the health situation remains persistently bad. Yet vaccination campaigns are also accelerating...
The health and economic situations in the USA will get worse before they get better. Winter conditions and travel over the festive period have produced a resurgence of Covid-19, whose rate of transmission is breaking all records: 225,000 new cases per day on 13 January (7-day average) or 68 cases per 100,000 people, a contamination rate twice that in the European Union (EU)...
The 46th president of the United States, Joe Biden, will face a difficult mandate. At the time of his inauguration on 20 January 2021, he will inherit a sluggish economy, as the Covid-19 pandemic continued to worsen with a human toll of tragic proportions. Looking beyond the health crisis, the new Democratic administration will have to act on political and social stages that have never seemed so antagonistic at the dawn of a new decade. With his reputation as a man of dialogue, Joe Biden will need all of his long political experience and skills in the art of compromise to try to heal America’s divisions.
Since March 2020, Sweden has adopted a more relaxed approach to the COVID19 outbreak as no lockdown has been imposed to the population. However, the recent pick up in new infections could slow the recovery down in Q4 2020. Pervasive uncertainty will continue to hamper exports and corporate investment, while household consumption is fuelling the economic recovery. In 2021, the Riksbank will maintain and expand its vast asset purchasing programme. New expansionist measures are expected to bolster an already accommodating fiscal policy.
The Danish economy has quickly rebounded after the reopening of the borders but a complete catch-up will take time since the resurgence of the Coronavirus epidemic keeps the country’s economic situation uncertain. Services exports were hard hit by the crisis in 2020, but are offset by a surge in Danish household consumption, supported by government measures. Fiscal policy should remain accommodative in 2021 and the Central Bank of Denmark will continue to defend its peg with the euro.
Even if a vaccine is made available soon, it will take months for the USA and the rest of the world to recover from the traumas of the Covid-19 pandemic. Although the US economy is amongst those to have seen the best recoveries so far – notwithstanding comparison with China – it still bears many scars, some of which are clearly visible in our barometer...
With nearly 80 million popular votes and 306 members in Electoral College out of a total of 538, the Democrat Joe Biden won the US presidential election. His rival Donald Trump was beaten, but not by the landslide margins predicted by the polls. The Republican Party even gained seats in the House of Representatives and may hold on to its Senate majority. President-elect Joe Biden’s mandate promises to be especially tough, and his biggest challenge will be to overcome the political and social antagonisms. In the short term, the president-elect’s top priority will be to combat an ever worsening health crisis
According to the polls, Democrat Joe Biden is well placed to beat Republican Donald Trump and win the presidential election on 3 November 2020. However, because of the unusual US election process, the result is far from a foregone conclusion. There is also the threat of the result being disputed, and it could be delayed. President Trump’s record, which for the sake of fairness should be assessed up to the start of the pandemic, is mixed. Although GDP, jobs and especially share prices rose rapidly, the deterioration in the public finances was unprecedented in peacetime, while inequality increased. Higher tariffs did little to reduce the trade deficit. Environmental protection went sharply into reverse under Trump
Five months after crashing in March-April, the indicators making up our ‘barometer’ of US economic activity show an incomplete recovery...
Social distancing and lockdown measures implemented to combat the Covid-19 pandemic severely damaged the US economy in Q2 2020, resulting in a record 9.1% decline in GDP. The ensuing recovery is still incomplete and inequitable, as many of Americans still unemployed because of the pandemic are from low-income categories. The health toll is getting worse, and the United States is the country with the highest number of deaths (nearly 200,000 victims to date). President Donald Trump long played down the disease but must now deal with consequences during the run up to the presidential election on 3 November. Although the incumbent president is lagging in the polls, the election’s outcome is still highly uncertain.
In the USA, as nearly everywhere else, the economy was partially paralysed in the spring of 2020 by protective health measures in response to the Covid-19 pandemic...
In spring 2020, partially paralysed by the Covid-19 pandemic, the US economy entered the worst recession since 1946. Global activity contracted by more than 10% in Q2 before picking up slightly since the month of May. The question is how much of the lost ground can be recovered. With the approach of summer, business surveys are improving and the equity markets are rebounding, signalling rather optimistic expectations, possibly excessively so. Bolstered by the Federal Reserve’s liquidity injections, the markets could be underestimating the risk of corporate defaults, especially given their increasingly heavy debt loads. The latest statistics on the propagation of the virus are not good.
This week’s economic barometer for the United States integrates the first statistics for June, which are significantly better. This is notably the case for the Institute of Supply Management’s (ISM) business sentiment indexes, which rose above the 50 threshold for all sectors (retailing, construction and manufacturing) [...]
With 50,000 new cases reported daily – twice as many as at the beginning of June – and the number of hospitalisations on the rise, the Covid-19 pandemic is in the midst of an alarming resurgence in the United States. Granted the number of cases increases with the increase in testing, but this alone is not a sufficient explanation. The government’s response to the crisis is also to blame. In the European Union, where lockdown restrictions and business closures were implemented earlier and more systematically than in the United States, the situation seems to be better under control. Estimates of economic losses must be approached cautiously. The economy is rebounding on both sides of the Atlantic after reporting historically big contractions of about 10% in the second quarter
There were no exceptions. As expected, the US economic barometer, which covers all or part of the data available through May 2020, is signalling the worst recession to have hit the United States since 1946 ...
In the USA, as elsewhere, the paralysis of activity caused by the Covid-19 pandemic has affected the production of statistics, which have become harder to interpret. The rebound in hourly wages in April indicated by the “pulse” is a false signal and should be treated with caution: it can be explained by the collapse in hours worked, against which wages always show a certain inertia. Not only is the information gathered from companies incomplete, but there may well have been a lag between the shutdown of businesses and the stopping of wages [...]
Americans and the US economy, like many other countries, will pay a heavy price for the Covid-19 pandemic. Although the virus seemed to be slowing for a moment, it was spreading rapidly again as we went to press, with more than 30,000 new cases reported daily. The economy is beginning to show signs of slumping...
The American people and the US economy will no longer be spared the coronavirus pandemic, no more than any other country. Arriving belatedly on US soil and long belittled by President Trump, the virus is now spreading rampantly, to the point that WHO is now preparing to declare the United States the pandemic’s new epicentre. With its federal structure, the US has taken a scattered approach, leaving each state to decide whether or not to introduce lockdown measures. Although the White House has closed the country’s borders (to the European Union and Canada, among others), it was reluctant to restrict domestic movements of goods and people. Foreseeing recession, the markets have plunged and the central bank has launched a veritable monetary “Marshall Plan”.
Now a global phenomenon, the Covid-19 pandemic reached the United Kingdom relatively late and did not give rise to immediate protective measures. Having initially opted for a ‘herd immunity’ strategy, Boris Johnson’s government finally decided, on 24 March, to introduce a national lockdown. As in Italy, France and indeed generally across continental Europe, people’s movements and interactions are now limited in the UK. The disease, meanwhile, has spread rapidly, on a trajectory similar to that seen in the worst affected countries. Faced with the health and economic threats created by the pandemic, the government and the monetary policy authorities have introduced an exceptional package of support.
After the economic slowdown was confirmed in 2019, the global shock of the coronavirus pandemic will probably drive Sweden into recession in 2020. The evaporation of global demand, notably from the European Union and China, will trigger a drop-off in exports, and production channels will temporarily freeze up. Investment and consumption will both be hit. The central bank has adopted unprecedented support measures while the government is devoting its financial manoeuvring room to funding a fiscal stimulus policy that supports jobs and businesses.
With the coronavirus epidemic and its impact on oil prices, which are plummeting, the Norwegian economy is heading for a contraction in 2020. Exports, which account for 41% of GDP, are likely to be hit first. Norway’s central bank cut its key rate to nearly zero and has considerably increased NOK and USD lending, injecting liquidity into the economy while supporting the currency. The government has introduced fiscal measures to buffer the shock for companies and households.
The Coronavirus epidemic is also sweeping Denmark, which has now introduced relatively strict lockdown measures. With its very open economy (exports account for more than 50% of GDP), GDP growth will contract in 2020. To mitigate the shock, the government has launched major fiscal support measures, comprised notably of paying compensation for all or part of wages for a 3-month period. The central bank is ensuring DKK and EUR liquidity, after signing a swap arrangement with the ECB.
Economic activity will plummet under the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic, but not only via the export channel. The recession could become more virulent if household consumption and production channels were also to freeze up. In addition to the ECB’s monetary policy support, the government will also try to use fiscal policy to buffer the shock and limit the decline in employment.
