After Joe Biden wins US Presidential Election, what happens next?

Although not by a landslide, the Democrat Joe Biden clearly won the US presidential election with 79,843 million popular votes (51.1% of ballots cast) and 306 electoral votes out of a total of 538. His rival Donald Trump was beaten, but performed much better than the polls predicted. He received 73,794 million votes (47.2% of ballots cast), more than 10 million more than in 2016, thanks to a record-high voter participation rate of nearly 70%. Unsurprisingly, the incumbent is contesting the results, but the various lawsuits and recount requests filed by his campaign team have little chance of bearing fruit. In Arizona, Michigan and Georgia, most of the lawsuits for voter fraud have already been dismissed or rejected for lack of proof. In all of the states where Joe Biden was declared the winner, he enjoys a sufficiently big lead to avoid a recount, with the exception of Georgia, where his victory was just certified. Unless there is a dramatic turn of events, Joe Biden, at age 78, will become the 46th President of the United States on 20 January 2021, and Kamala Harris will become the country’s first woman to be named Vice-President.

A DIFFICULT TRANSITION

And then what? President Biden’s capacity to act will depend largely on the balance of power in Congress. The elections did not trigger a “blue wave” according to the vote count at 23 November. The Democratic Party will retain a slight majority in the House of Representatives (222 seats, compared to a minimum of 218 needed to conserve their majority), with the Republicans picking up 8 seats. The focus is now on the Senate, whose support is vital for the passage of laws and treaties and for the confirmation of nominations to key positions (such as Supreme Court justices, Federal judges and the Attorney General). So far, the Republican Party has clung to 50 seats while the Democrats have 48. The two remaining seats are both in the State of Georgia: since none of the candidates managed to obtain the required 50% of the vote during the general election, a runoff election will be held on 5 January 2021.

If the Democrats win both seats, the Senate would be split equally with 50 seats for each party, in which case the Vice-President, Kamala Harris, who is also president of the Senate according to the Constitution, would cast the tie-breaking vote. A large amount of US government policy in the years ahead will depend on which way Georgia votes in the next six weeks.

The immediate priority for the Biden administration will be to fight the pandemic, after an alarming resurgence that threatens to worsen an already dire human toll (250,000 deaths) and social-economic disaster (9 million jobs have already been destroyed). As we were going to press, the number of new Covid-19 cases had already risen to an all-time high, with 144,000 new cases daily, or nearly 45 new cases per 100,000 inhabitants. Initially sweeping the rural states of North Dakota, Indiana, Kansas, Utah and Colorado, the new wave of the pandemic is returning again to the big metropolitan areas of New York, Philadelphia and Los Angeles. The President-elect, who has already named his Covid-19 task force, has sounded the alarm: even if a vaccine becomes available in late 2020 or early 2021, the situation will continue to worsen in the weeks ahead. Yet by refusing to admit defeat, President Trump’s attitude is making the situation all the more alarming by blocking the democratic transition process. There is reason to fear that until Joe Biden’s inauguration on 20 January 2021, the White House will continue to close in on itself and refuse to cooperate, leaving the pandemic basically unmanaged. Fortunately, State governors have some powers to fight the spread of the Coronavirus (imposing mask mandates, restricting access to public spaces, prohibiting gatherings over a certain size, etc.), which could counterbalance Trump’s position. But the President’s stance counts, if for nothing more than to set an example and to provide the local authorities with the necessary resources, especially as preparations get underway for a vaccination campaign.

Even before he was elected, Joe Biden worked with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to promote a supplemental budget package to fight the pandemic totalling USD 2,200 billion (10 points of GDP). In addition to purely health-related measures (training and hiring of healthcare workers, generalisation of testing and tracing procedures, and facilitating access to healthcare), the package proposes to raise the Federal unemployment benefit to USD 600 (after it was lowered to USD 400 a month in August) and to extend the Paycheck Protection Program, a support mechanism for small businesses. The pre-electoral atmosphere combined with the summer’s economic rebound was not propitious for a bipartisan budget agreement and favoured the status quo. With the economic horizon darkening again, this stand-off seems increasingly unsustainable. The State of New York has waged one of the bitterest fights against the pandemic, but it has had to close its schools again. And California has imposed a curfew. After several months of improvement, the mobility indices reported by the internet search engines show that activity is slowing. In a recent speech before the Bay Area Council Economic Institute, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell warned that the next few months would probably be “very difficult”.

HOW MUCH LEEWAY?

Although political alternation is common in the United States, it is rare that it occurs in such a poisoned atmosphere. In every field, from the environment to education, healthcare and foreign policy, Donald Trump is striving to leave his deepest mark possible and to undermine the transition process. It is also possible that Trump will spearhead the most radical opposition to Biden once the new president takes office.

Given the potential for an economic and financial backlash, however, this extreme approach is not without risks for the Republican Party, which could split or weaken itself if it tries to toe the line too closely with Mr. Trump. Regardless of the opposition, there are some areas that are traditionally reserved for the presidency, such as foreign policy, where Joe Biden will be in a position to act. The United States could re-join the Paris Climate Agreement, which is not a treaty and thus does not require Senate approval. This is one example from Biden’s list of campaign promises that could be met. Others, in contrast, will be more difficult to pull off if the Republican’s maintain their Senate majority (see box). Although there could be some bipartisan support for industrial policies (stricter place-of-origin rules to qualify as “made in America”; Federal purchases of American products; greater investment in research and development) and infrastructure investment (road repairs, high-speed internet services, encouraging the development of rail and public transportation), Mr. Biden’s proposals for an ecology transition, healthcare and education are bound to meet with strong resistance.

The greatest challenge facing the future 46th president of the United States will be to build bridges between two Americas with opposing viewpoints and to calm down extreme political and social pressures. Joe Biden, who is known as a man of dialogue and also as “the healer”, will have to draw on every ounce of his political experience and sense of compromise to succeed.

Jean-Luc Proutat