All Eco TV Week

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A V-shaped recovery for France? Not so fast   7/3/2020
Looking at France’s economic situation and prospects, there are grounds for both optimism and pessimism

Impact investing and the European Recovery Plan   6/26/2020
Faced with the depth of the recession, there is no doubt about the need for a European recovery plan, in addition to the massive national measures that have already been taken. The European Commission has proposed an ambitious plan, but it has run up against two considerations, among others: moral hazard and strict conditionality. One solution would be to apply the principles of impact investing: targets would be set, and once reached, they would open the door to better financial terms, or even the partial conversion of loans into grants.

Spain: renewable energies offer new opportunities   6/19/2020
While Spain’s recovery plan will begin to take shape over the summer, investment in the renewable energy sector could provide significant support for economic growth and employment creation in the coming years.

Southern Europe: sharp increase in the cost of risk   6/12/2020
The cost of risk of southern European banks sharply increased in the first quarter of 2020. The forward-looking approach followed by the impairment model for financial assets introduced by IFRS9 explains, to a large extent, the magnitude of the phenomena.

Turkey: Resilience ahead   6/5/2020
The Turkish economy has grew during the 1st quarter, but will not avoid a GDP contraction in 2020 as a whole. Nevertheless, Turkey’s growth should be among the best performances in Emerging Markets in 2020.

France: slightly brighter skies in May   5/29/2020
According to May business confidence surveys, France’s economic horizon has cleared up a bit.

Dual economic shock in the Gulf: risks and prospects   5/25/2020
Gulf countries have the financial capacity to face the dual shock of the Covid-19 and the fall in oil revenues. However, risks are mounting on public finance in Oman and Bahrain, and on Dubai economic prospects. Eventually, this crisis could accelerate fiscal reforms.

In front of Covid-19 crisis, is there a place for any “green deal”?   5/15/2020
In front of the Covid 19 crisis, the necessary support to economy should not be opposed, but associated,  to energy transition.

The drop in Eurozone GDP: the worst is yet to come   5/6/2020
Eurozone DP shrank by -3.8% in the Q1 2020, on a quarterly basis. The economic contraction in Q2 2020 is set to be much more pronounced. The consequences of the current crisis have not been yet fully identified and given the risk of financial fragmentation, the action of the ECB should remain flexible.

France: shocking figures reveal the extent of the shock   4/30/2020
According to preliminary INSEE estimates, French GDP contracted 5.8% in first-quarter 2020. This contraction gives us a first glimpse of the magnitude of the recessionary shock triggered by the Covid-19 pandemic.

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On the Same Theme

Much brighter skies in June 6/26/2020
While the economic horizon cleared up a bit in May, the improvement was much bigger in June. Given its construction, our Pulse does not yet show any traces of this rebound, which is just as remarkable as the preceding plunge [...]
The Paris office market: a matter of yield 6/17/2020
As commercial real estate can be seen as a financial asset, analysing spreads between property and government bond yields is a proper way to better forecast price levels.
6/16/2020
France: slightly brighter skies in May 5/29/2020
According to May business confidence surveys, France’s economic horizon has cleared up a bit.
The sharp rise in household inflation expectations in April, a signal to be put into perspective 5/6/2020
The sharp rise in household inflation expectations is one of the striking results of the April 2020 INSEE consumer confidence survey. This increase goes the opposite way of the fall in the balance of opinion on price trends over the past 12 months as well as in actual inflation. This large divergence is noteworthy in view of the usual relative proximity of the three indicators. This rise in expected inflation echoes the French people’s feeling, conveyed in the media, that significant price increases have occurred since the lockdown. This is probably the consequence of the composition effect of consumption baskets and not the warning sign of a widespread and substantial pick-up in prices in the making. The more regularly a product is consumed, the stronger the sensitivity to a rise in its price. And this sensitivity can be wrongly extrapolated to all prices. Currently, expenses are mainly incurred on food for which high price increases have precisely been reported as a result of the law of supply and demand. By contrast, because of the lower frequency of refueling, household inflation expectations do not reflect the plunge in oil prices.  
France: shocking figures reveal the extent of the shock 4/30/2020
According to preliminary INSEE estimates, French GDP contracted 5.8% in first-quarter 2020. This contraction gives us a first glimpse of the magnitude of the recessionary shock triggered by the Covid-19 pandemic.
The new government-guaranteed loan in France 4/24/2020
French banks may grant up to EUR 300 billion of government-guaranted loans (‘Prêts garantis par l’Etat’, or PGE) until December 31, 2020. This instrument, which is of an unprecedented scale, is dedicated to helping companies overcome cash-flow difficulties resulting from the coronavirus crisis.
France: historic recession 4/10/2020
We are now expecting a massive recessive shock for the French economy due to the covid-19 pandemic. This pandemic is a huge adverse shock, what we call a 'black swan' event, that is to say an unpredictable event, very unlikely, but with a huge cost.
Massive recessionary shock 4/8/2020
Clearly, 2020 will not be another year of slow but resilient growth as we were forecasting just last quarter. We must now expect a massive recessionary shock triggered by the Covid-19 pandemic. To date, the INSEE estimates the instantaneous loss of economic activity linked directly to confinement measures at 35%, which is equivalent to slashing off 3 points of annual GDP per month of confinement. In March, the business climate was in free fall, which gives us a first glimpse of its scope. A full arsenal of measures have been deployed to mitigate the shock as best possible. According to our estimates, French GDP could contract by 3.1% in 2020, more than the 2.8% decline reported in 2009, before rebounding by 5.4% in 2021. These forecasts are highly uncertain, with risks on the downside.
Business confidence in free fall in March 3/27/2020
Judging by the indicators on our radar screen, the picture for the French economy is deteriorating, albeit, it should be remembered, from a relatively strong position...

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