Since taking office, President Trump has confirmed his threats to raise tariffs, but fears of universal and widespread application have abated somewhat. He will decide whether to carry out his threats once an audit of the United States' trade relations with all its trading partners has been completed, which should be by the beginning of April. Between now and then, and even over 2025 as a whole, the divergence in the trajectory of world trade between advanced countries and emerging and developing countries (EMDs) is set to increase. Trade between EMDs is expected to grow significantly faster in 2025 (5%) than during the 2012-2018 pre-COVID period (+3.9% per annum on average), whereas it will be the opposite for advanced countries
Since 2019, private sector debt in emerging countries as a whole has risen as a percentage of GDP, while at the same time private sector debt in advanced countries has fallen. However, a country-by-country analysis shows that China alone is responsible for this increase and that, even excluding China, debt ratios show positive aggregation effects. In fact, on the basis of median ratios and credit gaps, excluding China, the private sector has develeraged in a large number of countries, until the third quarter of 2024. Current and future economic and financial conditions point more to a continuation of the decline than to a rebound.
While emerging economies (EMEs), apart from China, have contributed little to global warming, the future CO2 emissions curve and the resulting additional temperature rise will largely hinge on their ability to conciliate growth and decarbonisation. However, due to limited financial resources, their investments in the "green" transition are low, at around 50 dollars a year per capita, compared to investments which are around seventeen times higher (850 dollars a year per capita) in developed countries. This disparity gave rise to the idea of securing transfers from developed to developing countries at the Copenhagen Conference of the Parties (COP), in 2009.
The election of Donald Trump has not triggered any major financial tensions in the main emerging markets. Nevertheless, the dollar has strengthened, which should delay the easing of monetary policies. More worryingly, emerging economies will be the direct or collateral victims of the trade war promised by the incoming United States administration. They will face a double shock: a sharp slowdown in global trade and the re-routing of Chinese exports. The first shock is bound to be recessionary or even inflationary. The impact of the second is not clear cut as it hinges on the types of Chinese exports (complementary or competing) and, most of all, on their link with direct investment.
Since the start of the year, growth in emerging countries has held up quite well. This is reflected not only in business and household confidence, but also in the confidence of foreign investors in the local bond and stock markets. The tightening of US monetary policy from early 2022 to mid-2023 did have a major negative impact on portfolio investment flows. However, this impact was largely offset by the attractiveness of emerging markets for both private and institutional investors, whether for purely financial reasons (carry trade strategies) or as part of a diversification strategy
Monetary and exchange rate conditions in emerging economies are more favourable in this early part of the year than they were at the end of 2022 and beginning of 2023. The relaxation of monetary policies made possible by lower inflation and upward revisions of economic growth forecasts has attracted portfolio investment. Despite the increase in geopolitical risk, sovereign risk is likely to reduce except for the most fragile countries, which were already under pressure in 2023. For low-income countries, 2024 will be a high-risk year as governments’ external debt repayments will remain very heavy, just as they were in 2023.
Monetary and forex conditions in emerging economies are more favourable in this early part of the year than they were at the end of 2022 and beginning of 2023. The relaxation of monetary policies made possible by lower inflation and upward revisions of growth forecasts have attracted portfolio investment. Despite the increase in geopolitical risk, sovereign risk is likely to reduce except for the most fragile countries, which were already under pressure in 2023. For low-income countries, 2024 will be a high-risk year as governments’ external debt repayments will remain very heavy, just as they were in 2023.
Growth in emerging countries held up quite well in H1 2023, thanks to countries in Asia, Brazil and Mexico. In Asia, inflation returned to very moderate levels in August or September (with the exception of India) and, compared to other areas, monetary tightening between mid-2021 and mid-2023 was on a much smaller scale. This helped offset the drop in exports. However, Central European countries did not benefit from this offset effect. Business and household surveys indicate that disparities between areas became more pronounced over the summer. These surveys also show that the heavyweights in Latin America (Brazil, Mexico) are better positioned within the major EM regions.
Emerging markets exports contracted sharply in late 2022-early 2023, particularly in Asia due to the turnaround in the global electronic cycle. But US/China structural decoupling is probably already at work.
The scenario of a slowdown in the emerging economies in 2023 is based on two hypotheses: 1) a slowdown in global trade and 2) the recessionary impact of inflation and monetary tightening. The first hypothesis is now a certainty: exports have clearly contracted in recent months, in both the advanced countries and emerging economies. The causes are partially circumstantial, and hopefully the cooling of world trade will only be cyclical. It is possible, however, that the trade and technological decoupling of the US and China are also a contributing factor.
In 2022 as a whole, average economic growth in Emerging Markets (EMs) slowed to an estimated 3.8% down from 6.6% in 2021. The slowdown followed the post-Covid shock rebound of 2021 and was much aggravated by the rise of powerful headwinds throughout the year, including: the repercussions of Russia’s war in Ukraine on activity in Europe and global inflation, monetary tightening to fight against price pressures, the weakening in Chinese economic growth (notably resulting from Covid-related disruptions and the crisis in the property sector), and the downturn in world trade.
Over the past few months, the equity markets of the main emerging financial centres have shown a little more optimism. They are betting on a recovery in growth in China after the lifting of health restrictions, on the positive effect of the drop in commodity prices for importing countries and on the impact of US monetary tightening and the appreciation of the dollar to be less severe than expected. The first two arguments are uncertain and must be put into perspective. The financial shock is probably behind us. But its negative impact on investment will continue this year. Likewise, the acceleration of inflation in 2022 could have diffuse effects on household consumption, even if wages were to catch up.
Excluding China, activity in emerging countries was stagnant in Q2 2022 and business and household confidence surveys indicate that the economic slowdown will continue. Inflation continues to rise and is being accompanied by new decisions of monetary tightening, including by central banks in Asia. The deterioration in external demand and tighter domestic financial conditions have combined with the monetary tightening in the United States and USD appreciation to trigger the slowdown in activity. This is a double whammy for emerging countries. But developing countries, which are also facing the food crisis and a situation of over-indebtedness, are in a more worrisome situation.
Emerging countries have recently faced a series of unexpected and severe shocks that will significantly dampen their economic performance in 2022. Global inflation has increased due to rising commodity prices and world supply disruptions resulting from the conflict in Ukraine. The lockdowns in China’s industrial regions during the spring have aggravated supply problems and further worsened the global economic outlook. Moreover, monetary policies have tightened in most countries, while external financing conditions have also deteriorated due to the weakening in global investor sentiment and US monetary policy tightening. Emerging markets have already faced a bout of large capital outflows since the beginning of the year
Over the past few weeks, Central Europe has experienced a spike in Government bond yields. Five-year yields have surged respectively by 338 bp in Poland, 331 bp in Hungary, 350 bp in Romania and 216 bp in Czech Republic since January 2022 and are at present similar to 2008 levels. The trend is also the same for 10-year yields. The recent move can be explained to some extent by markets’ overreaction as regards to the relatively high exposure of Central European countries to Russia in terms of exports and energy supply. Moreover, their geographical proximity with Ukraine and Russia have contributed to markets’ perception of higher geopolitical risk. In the meantime, monetary policy tightening, a consequence of higher inflationary pressures (respectively +16
Emerging countries are now facing another major shock whereas the post-pandemic recovery has remained fragile. The war in Ukraine will impact emerging countries through its negative effects on foreign trade, capital flows and, above all, inflation. The indirect effect of soaring global commodity prices on inflation households’ purchasing power may be particularly severe, and affect mostly low-income countries in Africa, Central Europe and the Balkan region. In spite of these gloomier prospects, we do not expect a broad-based worsening in sovereign and external solvency in emerging countries in the short term. However, a few governments, especially in Africa and the Middle East, may rapidly experience payment difficulties.
For emerging economies, the balance prospects/risks has been deteriorating since end-2021. For 2022, a bigger than expected growth slowdown is very likely, sometimes with social instability as already seen in Kazakhstan. Over the last three months, Turkey has experienced a mini financial crisis again. Monetary and exchange rate policy is betting on exports and investment to support growth and rebuild the major economic balances over the medium term, albeit at the price of short-term financial instability. This is a daring gamble that could force the authorities to introduce genuine foreign exchange controls instead of the incentive measures they have implemented so far.
The recovery in emerging economies since mid-2020 has been accompanied by a tightening of monetary policy in Latin America and Europe but not in Asia so far (except South Korea). The main reasons for this lie in the level and dynamics of inflation. Inflation is strong and accelerating in Latin America and Europe, more modest and still contained in Asia
Emerging economies have faced mounting inflation pressures since the beginning of 2021. Headline inflation has continued to accelerate over the summer (except in Asia), primarily reflecting the rise in food and energy prices and weaker currencies against the USD. However, core inflation has also accelerated across the board. As a result, a growing number of central banks in Latin America and Central Europe have started to raise their policy rates. In Asia, inflation has remained low (North Asia) or has levelled off (India), allowing central banks to stay accommodative. So far, central banks engaged in a tightening cycle have increased their policy rate cautiously; even the more reactive ones (in countries such as Brazil and Russia) have remained behind the curve (i.e
The recovery in emerging countries remains fragile. Several economies in Asia and Latin America went through an air-pocket in Q2 2021. The emergence of Covid-19 variants has triggered new waves of the pandemic resulting in production stoppages, which have been temporary so far but which are eroding business confidence. Companies are also struggling with supply-side constraints, including supply-chain bottlenecks and energy shortages, which are contributing to fueling inflation and indirectly straining household confidence. Lastly, the Chinese economy is a source of concern with its sluggish household consumption and with the construction and real estate sectors in great distress
Emerging countries have continued to recover since the beginning of the year, although the recovery remains fragile. Household confidence indicators are lagging behind those of business sentiment, illustrating the constraints on domestic demand: the pandemic risk persists, inflation is accelerating, and governments are facing rising financing costs, which reduces their fiscal manoeuvring room. Despite buoyant foreign trade, the horizon is not clear enough yet for investment to rebound. Fortunately, the vast majority of central banks have been maintaining a proactive stance so far, despite inflationary pressures. But monetary policy is bound to tighten across the board.
In their spring outlook, the IMF economists expect to see a multi-speed (and incomplete) recovery of the global economy in 2021. Indeed, speed is the key word for 2021 because the emerging countries are racing against time on several fronts. In our eyes, the greatest short-term risks are linked to the race between the rollout of vaccinations and the spread of the pandemic, and between higher food prices and the partial catching-up of revenues for low-income households. If this divergence persists, we could see a rise in social risks, which may have a much more destabilisation capacity than financial risks.
The significant increase in US Treasury yields in recent months has not yet led to a widening of the spread between US Treasuries and the global emerging bond market index. This index covers USD-denominated traded bonds & loans issued by sovereign and quasi-sovereign borrowers in a large number of developing economies, whereby a distinction is made between investment grade (IG) and the lower quality speculative grade (SG) issuers. The absence of spillovers coming from the United States is a relief. Admittedly, emerging market yields have moved higher, in line with US yields, but they have been spared from a spread widening, which would have made financing conditions even more onerous. Things have been different in the past
Almost a year ago, the pandemic triggered a financial shock that shook the emerging countries. Since then, monetary and financing conditions have largely returned to normal. Portfolio investment even soared to record levels in the second half of 2020 in a context of a massive support from the Fed. Under this environment, for the majority of the major emerging countries, government borrowing costs in local currency are equal or lower than they were at year-end 2019. And yet swelling fiscal deficits have driven up public debt to unprecedented levels. The low cost of government borrowing can be attributed largely to the widespread easing of conventional monetary policy via policy rate cuts, and to the securities purchasing programmes adopted by many EM central banks
As the new year gets underway, emerging countries are benefiting from a combination of favourable factors for a recovery (catching-up movements in foreign trade, a weak dollar, rising commodity prices, and domestic financing costs that are lower than pre-crisis levels). Yet lots of uncertainty and threats remain: the rollout of vaccination campaigns, the risk of a surge in insolvency cases among the poorest countries, despite financial support from international institutions and official creditors, and a rise in non-performing loans in banking systems as of 2021. The main risk in the medium term is the combination of a probable loss of growth potential due to the pandemic and the private sector’s record-high debt burden.
