The barometer provides a perfect illustration of the diverging trend observed between manufacturing and services activities. On average over the past three months, the manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) index has moved above its long-term average, while the indicator for services remains well below this trend...
The economic recovery slowed down in September. That said, and as clearly shown on our barometer, the 3-month trend has continued to improve for most indicators – a logical process with the catching-up effect during the summer period...
The Spanish economy registered a record contraction of 22.7% in the first half of 2020. With the public deficit likely to rise above 10% of GDP this year, the government faces some difficult decisions, notably on the terms and conditions of its temporary layoff scheme (ERTE). The recovery in industrial production since the easing in lockdown restrictions in May is encouraging. However, this only partially compensate for the slow pick-up in activity in other sectors. The final quarter of 2020 will be a pivotal moment. A substantial programme of support for employment and investment (under the recovery package announced this autumn) is needed, while narrowing down support more specifically towards the sectors lastingly affected by the crisis.
This week’s Eurostat report confirmed that Spain has been Eurozone’s worst impacted country by the coronavirus. The resurgence of the epidemic and the implementation of new restrictions will hold back the economic recovery this semester, at least...
The Q2 GDP figures – released next week – should confirm that Spain has been one of the European economies hit hardest by the health crisis...
The unprecedented economic contraction in H1 2020 raises serious doubts about the upcoming recovery. Although the reopening phase has proceeded smoothly so far, the recovery in employment was very small in June. Tourism remains under the threat of a resurgence of the Covid-19 epidemics in Europe. The swelling public deficit will force Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez to design a tight recovery package that balances between short-term emergency measures and long-term investments. This difficult equilibrium is likely to heighten the tensions in the governing coalition between Podemos and the socialist party. Subsidies allocated as part of the European Recovery Plan would give Spain some fiscal leeway, but the final terms and amount of the funds are yet to be finalised.
The barometer for Spain has begun to improve with the introduction of post-lockdown data, but it continues to fluctuate around historically-low averages [...]
The Covid-19 crisis will leave its mark on the economy. However, the decade ahead offers new prospects for growth and employment. Spain suffers from a lack of employment and investment in technology-related sectors, but has opportunities to close these gaps. The renewable energy sector can be a significant source of employment over the medium to long term.The National Energy and Climate Plan is a significant step forward (if passed and implemented). The European Green Pact and Brexit may also help boost high-tech investment in the country.
The Spanish data has sharply deteriorated – well below their historical averages – since the beginning of the lockdown in March. The trend in exports and industrial output remains positive on the graphic below but the latest figures are only for February. They will also plunge in March/April [...]
Spain is a constitutional monarchy with a Prime Minister and a monarch. It is the fourth largest economy in the Eurozone.
On joining the euro, the country experienced a very strong, albeit largely unbalanced, period of economic expansion. Fuelled by the booming construction sector and surging house prices, funded by external debt. The 2008 financial crisis precipitated the burst of the housing bubble which in turn led to an economic and banking crisis.
Spain emerged from the 2008 financial crisis after a long and painful process to reform the labour market and rebalance the economy towards export-oriented sectors. Its banking sector has been restructured and recapitalised. Gains in cost-competitiveness have allowed Spain to increase its market share both inside and outside the Eurozone. The country experienced solid growth in years preceding the Covid-19 pandemic, averaging 2.6% (2015-2019).
Important structural weaknesses persist, and in particular the low of level of investment and productivity, which are among the lowest in Europe. This hinders the growth potential of the economy and limit the number of job creation in the long run. The slump in activity and the countercyclical policies put in place to deal with the coronavirus shock has caused a sharp increase in the public deficit.
