Although US growth remains strong, global headwinds, softer survey data and tighter financial conditions have put the FOMC in risk management mode. Policy remains data dependent, but a patient stance will be adopted before deciding on the next move in monetary policy. Inflation, which remains well under control, facilitates this wait-and-see attitude. Markets are now pricing in a policy easing in the course of 2020. More than anything else, this shows to which extent uncertainty has taken its toll on confidence.
According to the INSEE first estimate, French real GDP rose by 0.3% q/q in Q4 2018. This figure is not a strong one but this is still relatively good news as growth was slightly above expectations (surprising on the upside for the first time in 2018) and slightly above Eurozone growth (for the second quarter in a row).
