Recent survey data have picked up, in particular in the manufacturing sector and in terms of export orders. The European Commission noted a marked increase of economic sentiment in the European Union, the eurozone, Germany and France in January, after substantial weakness in Q4. Although economists expect a pick-up in growth in the US as the year progresses, the dispersion is very wide. This means that the median forecast will inspire less confidence than if the level of disagreement amongst forecasters would be lower.
The economic indicators on our radar screen portray a French economy that is still looking rather strong and upbeat. In the recent period, most indicators are higher than their long-term and short-term averages, i.e. the momentum is slightly positive. Specifically, the signals from survey data (available through January) are more positive than hard data concerning activity (which are not as up to date, with November and December being the most recent months). A priori this augurs well for growth in early 2020...
