Recent survey data have picked up, in particular in the manufacturing sector and in terms of export orders. The European Commission noted a marked increase of economic sentiment in the European Union, the eurozone, Germany and France in January, after substantial weakness in Q4.
Although economists expect a pick-up in growth in the US as the year progresses, the dispersion is very wide. This means that the median forecast will inspire less confidence than if the level of disagreement amongst forecasters would be lower.
Will the global economy have an early spring this year? Popular wisdom has it that one swallow does not make a spring but economists disagree on how many good data are needed to call a change of season. In general, recent survey data have improved, in particular in the manufacturing sector and in terms of export orders. Eurozone data have tended to surprise to the upside lately, after substantial weakness in Q4, which translated into a very meagre growth performance in the Eurozone (0.1%) and even a small contraction in France (-0.1%). For January, the European Commission noted a marked increase of economic sentiment in the European Union and the eurozone. In the latter case, this can be largely attributed to positive developments in the industry and construction sectors, whilst confidence among consumers and in the services was stable. Strong increases of economic sentiment were registered in Germany and France. The purchasing managers’ indices in Japan and the UK also rebounded in January.
