Headline inflation has stabilised in recent months in the United States, the euro area and the United Kingdom, while it has declined in Japan. Core inflation continues to fall and its decrease is broad-based. Aggregate indicators of price pressures, calculated using PMI surveys, deteriorated again amid longer delivery times linked to the ongoing disruptions to global maritime trade. The PMI input price indices are also up in the US and the UK (page 18).
In the euro area, services inflation slipped below 4% y/y in January, but the further decline in the 3m/3m annualised rate to 1.2% points to greater disinflation to come, in line with our current scenario. Disinflation is now well under way in all Eurozone countries. With an inflation rate of 5% and 4.8% respectively in January, Estonia and Croatia were the economies where price increases remained the most pronounced, while four countries recorded a rate of less than 1% (Finland, Italy, Lithuania, Latvia). The ECB's alternative indices, and in particular the PCCI indicator, are falling, confirming the significant slowdown in price increases, as also shown in the chart of generalisation of inflation (page 9).
In the United States, most CPI items continued to show declining inflation in December. A third of the listed categories (4 out of 12) posted a level of inflation below their long-term averages (see heatmap on page 8). The core measures for the CPI and the PCE deflator are falling, albeit less markedly for the former (3.9%) than for the latter (2.9%). According to the University of Michigan survey, households' inflation expectations over one year have declined to match long-term inflation expectations (5-year horizon), which have remained stable at around 3%.
The disinflation phase is still less pronounced in the United Kingdom, where almost half of the components of the CPI still showed an annual rate of more than 6% in December. This share stabilised in 2023, in contrast to the euro area and the United States, where it fell sharply. Headline inflation edged down below 4% in December, but the retail price index (RPI) rose more strongly, at 5.2%, underpinned by the jump in mortgage interest payments (+44.1% y/y in December).
In Japan, headline inflation eased to 2.6% in December, on the back of greater energy deflation. However, the increase in food and household goods prices remains significant (6.7% y/y and 6.5% y/y respectively), while the increase in «leisure and culture» strengthened (7.8%). Producer prices, which rose by more than 10% y/y in December 2022, are now at zero inflation. Households' inflation expectations remain highly correlated with the CPI and have logically fallen in tandem.
Chart of the month: the inflationary shock has led to large errors in forecasts
![](data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAnEAAAGlCAYAAACVyqCcAAAgAElEQVR4Ae29z8tlSXrnl39CgyBBiITa16ZWDbXLzcCsTIMpPNDG1GxsM4VMTa0khOjcaSOSajMF8qaphhlw19jusoceY1tS52gkpxCNnNZMWahBUqGUJcixpJRALSExXPN53/7m+7zPjTg3zrnnR5x7vwEnzzkRTzzxxPcbEeebcc+974ODkxEwAkbACBgBI2AEjMDuEHiwu4gdsBEwAkbACBgBI2AEjMDBIs6DwAgYASNgBIyAETACO0TAIm6HpDlkI2AEjIARMAJGwAhYxHkMGAEjYASMgBEwAkZghwhYxO2QNIdsBIyAETACRsAIGAGLOI8BI2AEjIARMAJGwAjsEAGLuB2S5pCNgBEwAkbACBgBI2AR5zFgBIyAETACRsAIGIEdImARt0PSHLIRMAJGwAgYASNgBCziPAaMgBEwAkbACBgBI7BDBCzidkiaQzYCRsAIGAEjYASMgEWcx4ARMAJGwAgYASNgBHaIgEXcDklzyEbACBgBI2AEjIARsIjzGDACRsAIGAEjYASMwA4RsIjbIWkO2QgYASNgBIyAETACFnEeA0bACBgBI2AEjIAR2CECFnE7JM0hGwEjYASMgBEwAkbAIs5jwAgYASNgBIyAETACO0TAIm6HpDlkI2AEjIARMAJGwAhYxHkMGAEjYASMgBEwAkZghwhYxO2QNIdsBIyAETACRsAIGAGLOI8BI2AEjIARMAJGwAjsEAGLuB2S5pCNgBEwAkbACBgBI2AR5zFgBIyAETACRsAIGIEdImARt0PSHLIRMAJGwAgYASNgBCziPAaMgBEwAkbACBgBI7BDBCzidkiaQzYCRsAIGAEjYASMgEWcx4ARMAJGwAgYASNgBHaIgEXcDklzyEbACBgBI2AEjIARsIjzGDACRsAIGAEjYASMwA4RsIjbIWkO2QgYASNgBIyAETACFnEeA0bACBgBI2AEjIAR2CECFnE7JM0hGwEjYASMgBEwAkbAIs5jwAgYASNgBIyAETACO0TAIm6HpDlkI2AEjIARMAJGwAhYxHkMGAEjYASMgBEwAkZghwhYxO2QNIdsBIyAETACRsAIGAGLOI8BI2AEjIARMAJGwAjsEAGLuB2S5pCNgBEwAkbACBgBI2AR5zFgBIyAETACRsAIGIEdImARt0PSHLIRMAJGwAgYASNgBCziPAaMgBEwAkbACBgBI7BDBCzidkiaQzYCRsAIGAEjYASMgEWcx4ARMAJGwAgYASNgBHaIgEXcDklzyEbACBgBI2AEjIARsIjzGDACRsAIGAEjYASMwA4RsIjbIWkO2QgYASNgBIyAETACFnEeA0ZgJwi89957h88++6w52g8++ODw4MGDmyPW++ijjw4PHz68yX/69Gmzv0s1fPz48aV2zf0aQOD58+eHLbhnLr799ts38+/dd989fPHFFzfXA6G6yAhUEbCIq0LjgoyABEHpHEVCruf7eRAA94wzD6GcR2sIPpVRzoNC+Y8ePbqpQz4PsmtP4Op0fQgw/seIOOYUxzmJNhlvn3zyyZs5+OzZs0VFnNaBc+J23X4R8OrVLzfdRcbi8+TJkzeLDwuSjpcvX3YX76UF1Cri4AJbCTfhoHwLNyFyewaruRMYG+fxqIJZHrfjvbTV2ELEsfPGTnhMc4i4V69e3azF0a+uLeKExGWe51+9LhMn9+pwuBEGLDhO2yBQEnGlSPS//VxWy89213a/hIhr5erasD7VX3Bba40ZK+JOxd5SXhoXc4g4/nN97i5hS/y26Q8Bi7j+OOk2otYFlh2f0kJc2p3ADnsOFiL+l8p1TCpjkaI8/0+dexbk2hF9cU0cvC+GP94J43+xOeGLdinDBlviy7GpXrQrxah2c+yqn8/Y4Yd2iQX/tQdAjAk8qSdb6tLfWn5sF1thTJ2ciEn5fByEre6jrcqIo1ROnvLVJr5KYwa/EVvsahhGzGq8xjh1DVYkYtK4UHyyiedoR/wxwQV5+KT/XMuGeqXYVSf60XWpDv7AYQgz6p+yo11hTjtxvKn9lnPEXf5K9aIdcykmyogX3CjjmkOphhFxc+QUxwzjsZTwP+bj1FJbGUONnxg7bSv+0rgAM43BUpyRmxK+tMVYYJePa444zqhD+6WkuVobS4qbujGO3L+Sb+etg4BF3Do4X0QrLDSlRSR3jgleWhz14In22PHw4D0trlmIsFPCF+1SpoWKl/LjosSij03tkC/O+MBOsajdaMO1bGhLMfEyMvaxbWy5j3ZqIz9cyM8Pr9xu9KcYaV9fRMiLJ7jEPO4zDuBby6c9Hnj0i0Nt4oN6MRF7xEL9lA044AOcop/8EKUMP8Iz2sa+yC+x59iyHffiTP7BrCWpns7U57rElcoUs+JSO4qD+vGgXP8ZkK3O5GObxxXl4BTxy1jQx8wT9VrsiBUOaIP21SddK76hs/p7qm6eI+Jefa7NYbWtdnSvs9rVPefcFhjBk9qSLT7BqTWV2hrCMI4fxR/HBDGRhkSccFHbJW6iT13Htukj7ccEFrSf52q2U9y0r7bjdfTp620QsIjbBvddtsokXkLEsZho8WBxoR0lyvJDSguabGpn7OQXG/53iu8srljkox222PFwi/+jJZ88/MZEfPwPPCYWUS3Syqfd7E9l8Uy9uAhTpsU0x1laoGUbfUYfOR+RQL9iko8Yrx4okQ/qKSbyS36ymAK/yLnaVZu650weD5qYStiW/IFNjDX6iNdwne1oN8et8RPFANfY5TGFT+GitrDJfaEMzMhHzMWkuSAOSvUlAGL7rXbqY63dU3Nd8UW7Ujz0Cc7jHNF/HDLu4Bb9CQ9ipSwn/Ob5CJ5x/tTawuccIg7+axjmeEvjQphlW40tzkqyjXxTRn8zDqpTWiPAPa9PrAMZY+Ee8cRviXu15/O6CBzPinXbd2s7QoAJzmRmYucjdqO2OJYW3NICo0VLC1b0zXUtP9qVYqgtdKX80mKLf/zmhY57YoqJBwf56kssG7pmcaYe9XMin/ZjKuFXipE6tfySD+yjQOO+hFPsXyk+6iFQol1pHGBHyj6wpd2YhK2wqPWL/Cwqox9d02YpEXd8WJb6Tz3ESX6I537IPw/8iAXX2A4JadUtYUEZfYztt9qBD9yXUs1HtAWb2K7KSn0nL88R6pIfU8mO8hrHxMkRU76nrGQ31P/oT9djfZTmVQmb2noGvsSYU8lHbWxStzUObLPvGu7YgkeemzlW3y+PwP0ZtHx7bmHHCDDB33nnnZtFgYUhHrFbtcWxtAiWFhj5+vTTT48WaJURS34oqIx8HsAvXrxQ1s35/fffLy6K2Oddl7yYyVFe1LQ7g4981HzIV+nMoggmpVTyV8Ivxyhftfy33nrrKHb6gu+4SA89KL788subB0DGgHvGDG0rlcaBynIf4QUfQ0mY5bY//vjjI5FQ8kObpfThhx/e6z/jh7ZyO+TTp5hyP1SGbfx4lGtwfv369U2s2nXDnvy4e8WYpk+5fexi+612cELdUsJf5L5kU8vLfSfeGsbZB3bY51Qbu0NjKfoo2Q31P9bV9VgfYBvHPX4yNuSNwafmY2hu5ji0Zqlf8Uwf45ir4U4dbKeOkdimr89DoLx6nefTtS8UgdoCm7tbWxxLi2BeYKKvoYWptBhSVx+d5MWTslpbpUW05j8varrHvnSU4oh9zNcljGRTiqnUJ8WkejrX8ktxKy8u0kN8CEPVy+eIw5g+4qf0UFefOOMvtxfvo23pGttSyv0F6+g3XhNDTJTFPqss77jF3U58xI8X8RF3AmN7+Tq2n8vifbQjPvpUSthF7ks2ykMUYM/Hc2or9p1r8lsSdiW+az5oN/ZJbbAOgCX4KqZsN9R/+YnnUltDPkpzk1ioE5PmTsyL14wB2q7hi20eq7F+jqOGJXVyH0/Zto6RGI+v50WgbWbN26a97RSB2gKbu1Nb2PICQb28wERfQwtTaTGk7lCdWlulRbTmPy9q+T7GP+W6hJH8lGIq9akWUy0fvy1pCNsShjWfY/pIbKWHevQ95C/a1a5r/c/9LWE95BO8c4q7IPpYWB+vYq/3lEp4tmBBe612tEefSglM6f+ppDGFPde656ykPN0PnWux13yUuAdPdnD1MTN1ucY2JvJr/Y92ui61NeSjNF7oH3ViKnGtcjigzhC+2Oaxqvqccxy0j89Syn08ZdsyRkrtOG8+BMpMzuffni4IgdoCm7tYW9jyAkG9vMBEX0MLU2kx1OIdfcTrWlulRbTkH195Ucv3sb0p1yWM5KcUU6lPtZhq+fhtSUN8lDCs+RzTR2LD91Aa8jdUT2W1/uf+lrCWj3wucSUbhBpccCAuYqIeOy+5bWxasBhjR/v0qZTAlBiGEnGWYsp9r427ku+SP+xqPkrcg2+OvWQ31P9SbGN9lMZLxoZ2anMHfPM7lNiXfJTGi/qQ46hhiX3u4ynbjLPa9Hk9BNpW7/XicUsdI1BbYHPItcUxLxDUywtM9MXilh9ylGsHI9pyjW183yiXs+CUXsQmXmKLqbRQUl5a1Fpxif5r1/jXbky2KcVUwq8UYy128ks+ctvcDz0oKC/FV/JTGgeyyz6wpT9DqdbfoTqxjDZLKeNyqv/RR+5HLFP/S1+IoIyPAUv9Jq/lodlqB270sZRafOjjyly/1HfymLenEnYl0V7jmDg5lCQsc1vZDvuh/stfPI/1kccPvkrY1EQc+Mb30xRLycfQ2KzFoR1g+eXMGgouSjXcKQePlvEoXz4vg0B59VqmLXvdOQK1BTZ3i4+MeFk+J164zpO+tMCoXnxZXnmcebk7P3xYUHJerMM1X5QghrzAf+1rXzsSf6WFEh+lRY22eQk+p9LDKNvke33clusSeymmEn6lGGmnlg8nJezACQ6Uhh4U2NQ4yF8wwY6jlHIfaRN+cgInJeJkx+Lzzz9X1ptzxvFNQbigzZyo95WvfOXeWCGPdmLb1ONLCTkv9yOOOflhjsR8fFHGGKXtnOCPL4nkhI/Y/hi7Eu/4h588V3O7Jb5r41Rftsg+YtyUgRsYKAkf7CiL4xGbvKZojMOJEuMP3vKYw7bWf9WNZ+qP8VGam3lc4J/+kp8TbeV1pYZvnpux/6U4wC0LRHAiDmFOPMIzx8Y98Z0aI6V6zpsXgeORM69/e7sgBJjgLAhazOI573BRpv/VsRBwXdphKi0wETL+N0o9dtjwQzv5IwYtNDGeeB394SvGhX8WtJxKiy02aiva62NcfFHOQfu5v+S1LHr4oY/yRbzgxJmyuNtYwq8UYy128lm0S7iAQXzI5gdFxIBrcMAP/VTs6ku0FTcxT9cl3PUAlk/qYxd3EijDjvEhO3il/VMJO+JWXc74L3FF29jm8cgOUEwRB2KAu5jwD3elRN1amcaB+kiM+Mrtt9jho9YO/Sz1P8arXS9hkccpOEoQyFYYU4d+ZlzIQ1wQW8aNe7hS38VFjInr7INxIV/UlUgkJs0zyikbSrTHERN1ahiSn33CVc6TQAUbDuEe46NOxjeuA8ITOw5w0vwoxSE+aCvWof2YKCPmUmoZI6V6zpsXgTI787ZhbxeCgBax0jlPfhZvFkYWVC2iWlQiHCwiLChDCd8sSiwmLGQsLDFxX4pJedGWGIiLmPCHTRQqsiW/FBd5lOWED/LxycGDKPeXfuTYsx/dUx8/4Ee8JC2osf0SfrKTL51r+ZSXcMn9p37mWb51xo9ir+GLj5qfEu4t2NI+8TE+hJsehoqtdmasEo/qcq7Fhw/KhsYjNmAHd8QCf2PGAv7pSynFeYVvHtCZJ+q12FGvhtFQDDEu4gSL0jgFR+JQivxQp4QxMWlulnAjXuFammO0BdbgovFHDORRj0MiDlvNWc6ldUCxcybeHPMQhqW5SUwlbukrZWAWyyXOSvjGdYD4NH6xjT5KcWBP7MKJOqWxgE1uR5i0jhHZ+7wMAhZxy+Bqr0ZgMwRYwHkg5FTLz3a+NwJGYBkEaiJumdbs9RoQOF7pr6HX7qMRuGAEamKtln/BULhrRqArBCziuqLjIoIZLeLYlmaLdY6kj0nYlo3b7vimHR46ayX6RJtORmCvCPDRCx8V8fEHH1cp1fJV7rMRMALLIcBzjHmpLyWc+th2uUjs+RIRGC3iGJC1z8jHAsSDRv540MREG/n9g1g+9zXtTRWNWYDOHZv9GYFTCPAfEMYw/9PnrP+Q1PJP+XO5ETAC8yDA+268c6bn3Txe7cUI3CIwWsSxYzWHuEIw8WKqEi9YKvE/FV7SXDPRpyk7jDww44uya8bstoyAETACRsAIGIHrRWC0iGPXKW8H8/sy5CPM+IYL28andqdkK+ijiON3oXIbsstn/QYVQoq22dErtY0d5Ryl35OivViPa36TiHx8lurRJnHrj1K3xpz74HsjYASMgBEwAkbACIxFYLSIQ3yx+xQTXwnXV6C1w3ZqJ41dL+3E6SMffLIjhmBqTYio2La2rqMgIyZtZSv+3AfuKVPimn7RD2LinrbiLiR1aJv8XF9+fDYCRsAIGAEjYASMwBIIzCLi4kvUChJxc+rjSQkrBBC7XYg56kUBJn+1MwJK7//IJgsqfOZdshxfroNok8iUX3xQLybq+ePUiIivjYARMAJGwAgYgTUQmEXEIaRyyqIol3OPKMJOu1vsoum6ZF/KK7WNANNunoRhrpvbyvFGH7Fu/v0ti7iIjq+NgBEwAkbACBiBtRDYVMTFTsZdLnbiEFEtqSTiqKd8/CC0csr5FnEZId8bgXUQ4D9u+dvpc7fMbjlzPu/az90ObfAJA//ZO/VKydxt258RMALXh0A3Ik5fZkDMIcDYSeOdNO6HksRatlF+Fmuyy/kWcULGZyOwLgLMPe2cn2qZeY1AKh0lH8xzXoGI9rX/1EUbrmlrzCcDtEU9BCnXHE5GwAgYgSUR6ELEsdjp/bMoplhASwtuBERiLeZxrXx8l3zk/Ngu9SkvPRRYpGOint+Ji4j42giMQ4A5VJprJS/Ma16FYH7mI/+Hj3LmaxRivKfLfw5jHu3INvokJurTXkti563VtsXfnmzGfHqyp345ViPQOwL3FUlDtCxyWRRJMMXqWRTFsnzN/5T1ZYYoikpt5bqltuM3X7kufazBIh4X3BwvbZceLBZxmQHfG4HzEGDuleZaySvznbnZkhBrpY9p+QkkymLCZ57blPMfNPKzQIx1dY1da2yqcyln+INHJyNgBNZFYHMRh5DKYko7WyyIpxaGkojDX1y8WVwlEgUvwi4uuBZxQsZnI3CLAPOQecF8qokY5hBzi3fNtHPOufbuWbRjjnJPG3OLOImvEpfES5sxRvpREnHUPyXOwEb1wYprjpj4zyRltFvDhzrExAEe2McY8acy+cnrmtrUf2Rlp/x8lh1tcV1LxCZfOSaVaU1VP2q+nG8EjMB8CGwq4lj88k92aEGgi1oUhrqLiIuLHQtk3NmjLuX6uJZ72sjtskCRr8R16cGSF/pYL8YhPz4bgT0iwLhmt4oz87AmZMjHhjN2XDO3OPLDHsFBvuyYu9QjrzTXSri17sQh4minNTHfiSUn+kD+kMAhdmziQZ+UhA/niE8WYNRnDaEu/RRO8qMYKcMP5XlHEdtsJ3/yo3OMC1+0X+KB+hxqEzvaUIr91nUsl53PRsAIzI/A8ap1og0WM4RSTKWJj83Qwkd9/idestHiwoJ2KrGgaeFjAWExyg8PfCDitMDgP9vkeImrtBBRNyb8sJCyyFnERWR8vVcESv8RYo4zxnNiTpXmUxYg1MMuzx/mGX5La0hui/tWEYe/3FbJn/IkfHSvMz7oS0sCi7xm8B9V8vM6V+ozduTLhwSk2qYsr71a/2TDGT/RTmtUjIE28BfXQfKyKJRd9A8mtBHTWLxjXV8bASMwHYH7M3G6n81qsog5GQEjMB8C+T80eK59PMnDnLKcePjnBz0CIYoG1UEUjBFx/GcJ//mIO1tjRYXijT4l4EoxK/Z4pr/Uj6kWB3Z57SrVV9uKL/rmmvwoMmt2/CeW/ihhF0Wd8jNntfgRgPEj9pqd/PpsBIzAMghYxC2Dq70agYtC4FwRxwP/nXfeKWIyVsTxO2wIoHzo7yjTyFhRIfETfb711ls3bZREaqkjJRH2/vvvHwk71f3KV76iy5tzqb4M6A+xEUs8+LvNUXhlsab6refoizrinfaH0li8h3y5zAgYgXYELOLasbKlEbgqBBA2CCwe7DoyAOSXRI5Ekey5R4SU0lgRh69TaayoyPHKv/JLu1ay0Rkscmz0OedFe11zLtVXeeZBfOgc7bBtTfQr+851iZ+dN8SzdgazzVi8c33fGwEjMA2B3Yu42gI5DQ7XMgJGAAR4sPPxpz665CGNYMiJvB5FHO/bjhEzrCOl/tFfPq4Eh1OJ+nk9mlPEtfQHmxY7+oIdMbN7R9xDGET7EhYWcadGh8uNwDIIHK/Ky7Rjr0bACOwEAR7S7LzEd8z0sVruQq8irhZvjl/3QwKmVRjtScQhcvMXG8CCPgwldu6ol4WiRdwQai4zAsshMDxjl2vXno2AEegUAR7S8duNhFkTRa0iDh/5m4/qPoIAEdCShna2Yn0EKLG1fAxKvaVEHP3KWNIeH0vmj5dLIlB9GopPNupH/KJDLIvXYF6K65SIwwexY+cvNkREfW0EtkHAIm4b3N2qEegWAR7Q7NTExAv6pQc8eS0fp+KLLwogRmKiLuJubhFHGwgV3uOKO4pqO+fVRJLEa6mP8qUzWOT+8dchSjHwEeaHH36oqjfnUn0ZEC84ZV4oj7HpJ01iHjavX7++hwMCMvuCg8wxXxbJWHGP3dAXSXId9cNnI2AE5kXAIm5ePO3NCOweAX2ciiBht4adOUSHREbcwSEvCwYAKIkiRAP21KcckYVv2tPOUO3FeYGK+GCnCft8lISg2qCMNjnUl7hLp3ijT9oi3tI7YIonnoVPzOOaPhKz2scftlno1OrLn2KMfUEg5vjkH7ypA94IwMgbZcRFua7pO/5Uh3ZpSxwpX/1RXJzlI/o7xWWs72sjYASmIWARNw031zICF40AQoAHv8QHneUhn0UNefFjNYGibz3qXmf8IgLwg5gi8bBXW6ce/IiKKLTiNWWlhHhBnNAmB3WigKOO4s3+TsUT28M3IiYnfMR+l9qnTi0/+iNOiUtwbOlz5DD6UkwSbpThj35QpgR++CBfgk5l8Swb/GV8o52vjYARmA+B2UWcFiwWJCZ/yyLIhGfxy4cXgvmIticjYASWRaAm4pZt1d6NgBG4ZgRmFXGIMBYyxBvX+p/eKSGH4ON/cZzjgR8nI2AEjMAeELCI2wNLjtEIXBYCs4o4ttrz7hlCDGE2lChH9DkZASNgBPaEAOsW7wTyThgirvTR8p7641iNgBHYFwKziTi+qVQTayxuQ8kibggdlxkBI9ArAnzaoPf5/B/RXllyXEbgchEYVlcz9dsibiYg7cYIGAEjYASMgBEwAj9GYHERx8ervO82lLwTN4SOy4yAETACRsAIGAEjcIzA4iIOAXfqCwqIOHbrdHCf3607Dt05RsAIGAEjYASMgBG4XgQWFXGIN77scCrx7dX4DVbVs5A7hZzLjYARMAJGwAgYgWtFYDERx5+b4YXf/KvkrUDzkjA/GulkBIyAETACRsAIGAEjcIzAIiKOXTUEXNxdO276dM6pL0Sc9mALI2AEjIARMAJGwAhcJgKziziEGx+hlv6e4lgIlxRxv/d7v3eIB7HFe67nzsv+fX+fg6l4zM1Tq7+p8breMO+t+J9jZw6GOZiKzzmcnFN3aryuNzwOzuHknLp74IX+9ZBmF3EIOL6YMCaV3n1r+ZHgMW1kWwaJU98ImKO++VF05klI9H02T33zQ3TmqH+OeuNpVhGHeEPE8T5bPuK7cVHkaecO0SabNb7Y4MnS/2QxR/1z1NuCtg/EtonS82kb3Me0ao7GoLWdbU88zS7iEGilI/45mijioAEhp18+5yNUfpaktDs3J2U9kTBnvy7JlznaB5vmyTzVEPj9V39waD1qPq4p33NpH2z3xNOsIm4f8N9G2RMJe8JtzVjN0ZpoT2/LPE3Hbs2aW/D0D779tUPrsSYWvba1BUe9YtFzXD3xZBHX80i58th6mihXTsVg983TIDzdFG7BU6uAw87J78TtZQxsMZdq2FjE1ZBx/uYI9DRRNgej4wDMU8fkhNC24MkiLhDQcLkFRw1h2SQh0BNPFnGJHN/2g0BPE6UfVPqLxDz1x0kpoi14sogrMVHP24KjejQuqSHQE08WcTWWnL85Aj1NlM3B6DgA89QxOSG0LXi6NhHHl/Q4pqYtOJoa6zXX64kni7hrHomd972nidI5VJuGZ542hb+58S14ujYRxy8v8PNaU9OaHPELEPpZr6nxzlEP0bv0r1HMEWf0sSZPsd3StUVcCRXndYFATxOlC0A6DcI8dUpMCmsLniziEgknbpfgqCbUEJxz/GWlE126V1yKBdGbf3bsXqUOb5bgaWo3LeKmIud6iyPQ00RZvLM7bsA87YO8LXiyiBs3Npbg6PHjx8Ug+FH9+PutRaMZMxFrT548OfLILhyx7CktwdPU/lvETUXO9RZHoKeJsnhnd9yAedoHeVvw1JuIQ7Tk3aAvv/zyXt7r169vxA12n3766Y3wQIDkerDOThbChOPFixc3O0qlj1OjHe3FFNv7uZ/7ucMnn3wSi2/aJY82Sr6J6+OPPy6W0+4777xzEyfXsW2woG0l4UB+bg87iTDKoh/Vpx4xEgvXMans/ffffxOLyok/2+NfMZTaUx3OkaPYH/lf4rzFXKr1wyKuhozzN0egp4myORgdB2CeOiYnhLYFT72JuNI7a1kcIXb485EcKqMef0koJsQFeYgbDna8+ItDWWhRV+1S9vDhw3vvgKk9fH3jG9+48amdKZVxT138EFdMMU58YKPENe1x5sCfUr6nr/jCh9rT/dtvv33zV5WIgTJ8xoQvYelQozoAACAASURBVAEu4BDfc6MO5fjBlr/QpKR+6Z535LBTDJy5j18YoQ6xxb7j94MPPpCbRc9bzKVahyziasg4f3MEepoom4PRcQDmqWNyQmhb8LRXEYfgyAnBEHeMEG1RWGCPkEBgKCFkqBdTFi0SaviCo/jxIv6iGMKPxBLX2Rd5tMcOlVLt41R8R1GHiEMwxUTbCLLoj/IYF5jkPuIHm5iIlTZyyn1A4CEEY+I+C78SR4i9NdIWc6nWL4u4GjLO3xyBnibK5mB0HIB56picENoWPO1VxGUBAoxZ9JTEETaIEiXETBQfykcYKSGk1F7mqNRGFD1cZzGD8Iqiq+SDtnN/tOuouHSOsSov2tJWFpoxRtUhr0XE0Z8olqnPfexnyT92tb4qhrnOmae5/E7xczeSptTecZ2eSNgxjIuGbo4WhXc25+ZpNigXdbQFT5cq4mqCJIs47hFx2McjCqMhEcfOUqzHNf4k+hgwiJuSONJgqgmbuUSc2oln4owxUkZeKc5sG7GJPmN+riO7Wl9VPtd5i7lUi90iroaM8zdHoKeJsjkYHQdgnjomJ4S2BU8WcbfvoiFe8iFqhkTcW2+9dVQPP4gYJXbCPvzww5v3xmK+ymvCZk4RRwx85ElbHIhPizgxsOzZIm5ZfO39DAS2eOicEe7VVjVP+6B+C54s4u5/vFoaKUMiribASn54p45duSyeaj7mFHH4iu2WdsrI805cibnz8izizsPPtRdEYIuHzoLduVjX5mkf1G7B06WKON4BK30TEiETd8Nq78TFETOXiJPP0hcwVBbPc4m4/L4abZwj4vIXM/DHTl/88kTJP3Y1wRr7Pcf1FnOpFrdFXA0Z52+OQE8TZXMwOg7APHVMTghtC556E3G8T5a/gYkYiy/mR1EV4LvZaaJMKX8TUkIjijj8RvGhuvFbrbG9zBFCK8aW60c/KsvirCZssl3+mFb+4rtoyou2MX6V45sjJnBp2YmjXsQQH1m05Xu1U+uryuc6Z57m8jvFj0XcFNRcZxUEepooq3R4p42Yp30QtwVPvYk4iSp9+5H7LMZKogSGs+jhXoIQMYWAQLAhMORf9eKuXRYgsb3MEWX4lJCjnShEaZ841J76F0ckcUnsRRGV+xOFWax/SsRJvKoN+krMMS780W/hwDV9Uz62SvQhxixshUGpjupaxAmJKzjnyXIFXd5dF83RPigzT+aphkBvIo44ERAIN8QJ75BJTKgPCCKJM+VxJk9iiXvEC/XxI/GG0OBeYkX1uSefIwoUymN7pblEvLEdRFxMxMWP7+Ibuyh2sKN/lBFjFHG5P7ST61I/Ciy1m225V//UBu1lgUzfsYsCjzYz3nxJgvqKG/8xlepQrraj7RLXJZ6WaKfF5+w7cfqfAiRBjNT5qWCwY6Cr3in7c8t7IuHcvlxqfXO0D2bNk3mqIdCjiKvF2kO+51IPLJyOoSeeZhVxUuOIN675HwNq+pSQo1z/S6AeQo77JVNPJCzZzz37Nkf7YM88macaAhZxNWTK+Z5LZVx6y+2Jp1lFHMIrb8ci6BBlQ4kt4LxdSp28bTzkY2xZTySMjf1a7M3RPpg2T+aphoBFXA2Zcr7nUhmX3nJ74mk2EffixYuqWONz7VrifYDSy4i8b5D/yG7Nx5T8nkiYEv811DFH+2DZPJmnGgIWcTVkyvmeS2Vcesvtiae6upoRtSERp49dS82xQ4eYWyL1RMIS/bsEn+ZoHyyaJ/NUQ8AiroZMOb/HufT7r/6gHOwV5/bE0+Iijo9XEWO1xMem+aNU2VKWvzmksnPPPZFwbl8utb452gez5sk81RCwiKshU87vcS79k+/+08Nv/eEPygFfaW5PPC0u4hBw+evDkXeLuIiGryMCPU2UGJev7yNgnu7j0eudeOKB/Au//ItNx5+8/tOzumMRNw4+cTSu1nLWjBU4RMg53SHQE0+LijjE26lvmVrE3Q0MX91HoKeJcj8y30UEzFNEo99r8fSv//3/dvNgbhFY536U1tKGbPpFbr3IxNF6LQ63hHgTP96Nu8OqJ54WE3GffvrpzRcTTr3TZhF3NzB8dR+BnibK/ch8FxEwTxGNfq/F0yWKuD//6784IDhbjr/5u7/pliRx1EOA2oWTiPNu3B0rPfG0iIjjd9/4Zump34cDEnbrah+3Dr1LdwfntCtIiAde4r1ImjMv+/L9fQ6m4rEGd6U2psbresO8l7CeO++aOfjW97/9ZndFD+ja+Vd+8KtH6+IQdpmnmt9Sfq5LO615S/ZpqL+XXPaPv/NfH42T/+k3Pm/mpJW7kt0ecL0BooN/Zhdx+uHe1i8k6Md9S1gMfau1ZD8mTwvEmDq2XRcBc7Qu3lNbM09TkVu3nni6xJ24Nfu0JGviaMk2WnznXTiJbu/G3aLXC09EM7uI4x04PiIdk6iTd+3YnfOP/Y5B8fJse5ool4fufD0yT/NhuaQn8bSm4NHDv+V8Tt/X7NM5cZ6qK45O2S1dHt+Fy9z53bjbT+2W5qDV/6wiDvGGIGN3LR/x3bgs8vQFCNlQtyTsWjvVYtfLZGmJ9VptzNE+mDdP++JpTcGTBcDQ/Tkortmnc+I8VbeHuVTbhRN33o27cBGHQCsd/GUGpSziyEfI8R4dH6HyLlz+812qO9e5h8kyV18u1Y852gez5mlfPK0pePTgbzmfg+KafTonzlN1e5hLQ7tw4vHad+N64EljadadODndw7knEvaA1xYxmqMtUB/fpnkaj9kWNcTTmoJHD/2W8zmYrNmnc+I8VVccnbJbqvzULpx4vPbduK15ivxbxEU0fN0VAj1NlK6A6SwY89QZIZVwxNOagkcP/ZZzJeym7DX71BTQRCNxNLH62dVaduHE5TXvxm3NUyTaIi6i4euuEOhponQFTGfBmKfOCKmEI57WFDx64LecK2E3Za/Zp6aAJhqJo4nVz6rWugsnLq95N25LnjLJFnEZEd93g0BPE6UbUDoMxDx1SEohJPG0puDRA7/lXAi5OWvNPjUHNcFQHE2oenaVMbtw4vNad+O25CkTbRGXEfF9Nwj0NFG6AaXDQMxTh6QUQhJPawoePexbzoWQm7PW7FNzUBMMxdGEqmdVefbDf3v0w74tnF3rbtxWPJVItogroeK8LhDoaaJ0AUinQZinTolJYYmnNQVPixCQTQp31O2afRoV2EhjcTSy2tnm/+zXfunwC7/8i8UDfhBrtfJz/77u2cFv4GArnkpdtYgroeK8LhDoaaJ0AUinQZinTolJYYmnNQWPBFrLOYU76nbNPo0KbKSxOBpZbVFzuANfpzsEeuLJIu6OF191hkBPE6UzaLoKxzx1RUc1GPG0puBpEW+yqQbeULBmnxrCmWwijiY7WKCiRdwxqD3xZBF3zI9zOkGgp4nSCSRdhmGeuqTlKCjxtKbgkUBrOR8FPCJjzT6NCGu0qTgaXXHBChZxx+D2xJNF3DE/zukEgZ4mSieQdBmGeeqSlqOgxNOagqdFvMnmKOARGWv2aURYo03F0eiKC1awiDsGtyeeLOKO+XFOJwj0NFE6gaTLMMxTl7QcBSWe1hQ8Emgt56OAR2Ss2acRYY02FUejKy5YwSLuGNyeeLKIO+bHOZ0g0NNE6QSSLsMwT13SchSUeFpT8LSIN9kcBTwiY80+jQhrtKk4Gl1xwQoWccfg9sSTRdwxP87pBIGeJkonkHQZhnnqkpajoMTTmoJHAq3lfBTwiIw1+zQirNGm4mh0xQUrWMQdg9sTTxZxx/w4pxMEepoonUDSZRjmqUtajoIST2sKnhbxJpujgEdkrNmnEWGNNhVHoysuWMEi7hjcnniyiDvmxzmdINDTROkEki7DME9d0nIUlHhaU/BIoLWcjwIekbFmn0aENdpUHI2uuGAFi7hjcHviySLumB/ndIJATxOlE0i6DMM8dUnLUVDiaU3B0yLeZHMU8IiMNfs0IqzRpuJodMUFK1jEHYPbE08Wccf8OKcTBHqaKJ1A0mUY5qlLWo6CEk9rCh4JtJbzUcAjMtbs04iwRpuKo9EVF6xgEXcMbk88WcQd8+OcThDoaaJ0AkmXYZinLmk5Cko8rSl4WsSbbI4CHpGxZp9GhDXaVByNrrhgBYu4Y3B74mkxEffs2bPDy5cvj3tfyHn+/Pnhs88+OzrIXyr1RMJSfdy7X3O0DwbN0754WlPwSKC1nM9Bcc0+nRPnqbo9ziWLuGPWeuJpdhGH8Hr33XcPDx8+vBFlx90/znnvvfdu6nCOx9OnT4+NZ8rpiYSZunRxbszRPig1T/viaU3B0yLeZHMOimv26Zw4T9XtcS5ZxB2z1hNPs4q4jz766EaMIeSePHkySsSxE7dm6omENfu9p7bM0T7YMk/74mlNwSOB1nI+B8U1+3ROnKfq9jiXLOKOWeuJp1lF3KtXr9701iLuDRS+mIhATxNlYheuopp52gfN4mlNwdMi3mRzDopr9umcOE/VFUen7NYst4g7RrsnnmYVcbGrFnERDV9PQaCniTIl/mupY572wbR4WlPwSKC1nM9Bcc0+nRPnqbri6JTdmuUWccdo98STRdwxP87pBIGeJkonkHQZhnnqkpajoMTTmoKnRbzJ5ijgERlr9mlEWKNNxdHoigtWsIg7BrcnnroRcQ8ePDjo4MsNS34zFUp6IuF4iDjHHO1nDHgu7YMr8bSm4JFAazmfg+KafTonzlN1xdEpuzXLLeKO0e6Jpy5EHD9FEn+OhG+lPnr0aFEh1xMJx0PEOSBgjvYxDszTPDz9yes/Pfz+qz9oOqa0KJ7WFDwt4k02U/qkOmv2SW0ucRZHS/ie6tMi7hi5nnjqQsQdQ3S4+Wbr22+/XSqaJa8nEmbp0AU6MUf7INU8zcPTL/zyLx4kaE6dp7QontYUPKf6Ecun9El11uyT2lziLI6W8D3VJxyBr9MdAj3x1K2IAy4+Xl0qQUI8aCfei6Q587Iv39/nYCoea3BXamNqvK43zHsJ67nzeuTgZz7/+WYRd0783/r+t5vb+ZUf/OrRujjUduYpirRT17ku7bTmLdmnof5eehn4wxv4qq+tnJxjp7Z6PtO/HtJiKmnMt1NrQCwt4mrtOr8PBJjATv0jYJ7m4cg7cdNx9E7cdOxO1fRO3DFCPa15XYi40pcYeC+OLzgslXoiYak+7t2vOdoHg+ZpHp4s4qbjaBE3HbtTNS3ijhHqac2bVcQhxvQ3UBFg/AUH3ccfAo7ijC808CUGRJts/MWG40FzjTk9TZRrxL+1z+apFalhO4u4YXyGSi3ihtA5r8wi7hi/nta8WUWcds8Qafn44osv3iARRRyZCDkEH39vlY9Q+durpd25Nw5muOiJhBm6c5EuzNE+aDVP8/BkETcdR4u46didqmkRd4xQT2verCLuuKv95vREQr8obRuZOdoW/9bWzVMrUsN2FnHD+AyVWsQNoXNemUXcMX49rXkWccf8OKcTBHqaKJ1A0mUY5mkeWizipuNoETcdu1M1LeKOEeppzbOIO+bHOZ0g0NNE6QSSLsMwT/PQYhE3HUeLuOnYnappEXeMUE9rnkXcMT/O6QSBniZKJ5B0GYZ5mocWi7jpOFrETcfuVE2LuGOEelrzLOKO+XFOJwj0NFE6gaTLMMzTPLRYxE3H0SJuOnanalrEHSPU05pnEXfMj3M6QaCnidIJJF2GYZ7mocUibjqOFnHTsTtV0yLuGKGe1jyLuGN+nNMJAj1NlE4g6TIM8zQPLRZx03G0iJuO3amaFnHHCPW05lnEHfPjnE4Q6GmidAJJl2GYp3losYibjqNF3HTsTtW0iDtGqKc1zyLumB/ndIJATxOlE0i6DMM8zUOLRdx0HC3ipmN3qqZF3DFCPa15FnHH/DinEwR6miidQNJlGOZpHlos4qbjaBE3HbtTNS3ijhHqac2ziDvmxzmdINDTROkEki7DME/z0GIRNx1Hi7jp2J2qaRF3jFBPa55F3DE/zukEgZ4mSieQdBmGeZqHFou46ThaxE3H7lRNsP39V39wyuyqynta8yzirmro7auzPU2UfSG3brTmaR68LeKm42gRNx071xyPQE9rnkXceP5cYyUEepooK3V5l82Yp3los4ibjqNF3HTsXHM8Aj2teRZx4/lzjZUQ6GmirNTlXTZjnuahzSJuOo4WcdOxc83xCPS05lnEjefPNVZCoKeJslKXd9mMeZqHNou46ThaxE3HzjXHI9DTmne1Im48ba5hBIyAEVgOgaVFnCJfU/DwzcbWQ/FNOa/ZpynxuY4RWAqBqxVxPSnppcjdu19ztA8GzdM8PC0t4sTTmoKnVcBhd05as0/nxHmqrjg6ZefybRHoiafFRNyzZ88OL1++bEYa2w8++ODw3nvvHZ4+fdpcb6phTyRM7cOl1zNH+2DYPM3Dk0XcdBwt4qZj55rjEehpzZtdxD1//vzw7rvvHh4+fHj47LPPmtBBwD169Ojw5MmTmzoIOe6XTD2RsGQ/9+zbHO2DPfM0D08WcdNxtIibjp1rjkegpzVvVhH30Ucf3Qg4hJwEWQs8iL4s+BBy+Fsq9UTCUn3cu19ztA8GzdM8PFnETcfRIm46dq45HoGe1rxZRdyrV6/eoNEq4r744ovD48eP39TTBb7YzXMyAkbACFwDAkuLOGG4puDxO3FC3WcjsAwCs4q4GGKriGMHrrbjxg5dFIbR/7nXPSnpc/tyqfXN0T6YNU/z8LS0iBNPFnH9/gkpcTTPiLKXpRDoiafNRRwfm+aPUgU8ZXxBYonUEwlL9O8SfJqjfbBonubhySJuOo5rCtPpUZ6u6bl0GqMeLHriySKuhxHhGIoI9DRRigE68wYB8zTPQLCIm46jRdx07FxzPAI9rXkWceP5c42VEOhpoqzU5V02Y57moc0ibjqOFnHTsXPN8Qj0tOZdrYgbT5trGAEjYASWQ2BpEafI1xQ8/mKDUPfZCCyDwOYijh/2rf24L19sWCqhpONBO/FeSnvOvOzL9/c5mIrHGtyV2pgar+sN817Ceu68Hjn4mc9/vvlPVJ0T/7e+/+3mdn7lB796tC4OtZ15Givisu/sj/JS3pJ9yjFd030J6zXy9oDxzUDs4J/NRRxfauALDKX04MFi4d0sTKU2ndcPAlqw+4nIkZQQME8lVMbnLb0TJ568E+dvp44fna4REdBcinlbXS+mklp/YoSO89cZ8p/oYneu9tMjc4DVEwlz9OcSfZijfbBqnubhySJuOo5rCtPpUZ6u6bl0GqMeLHriaVYRx19qYGdNu2uIMN3H33vLO28INoScbKhTEnZzktcTCXP265J8maN9sGme5uHJIm46jhZx07FzzfEI9LTmzSriEGMItNLBX2ZQyiKOfOryFxr4CJV34RCETkbACBiBa0FgaREnHNcUPGPfiVOMY89r9mlsbLY3AksiMKuIWzLQuX33pKTn7tul+DNH+2DSPM3D09IiTjytKXgs4saNDXE0rpat10agJ54s4tZm3+01I9DTRGkO+goNzdM8pFvETcdxTWE6PcrTNT2XTmPUg0VPPFnE9TAiHEMRgZ4mSjFAZ94gYJ7mGQgWcdNxtIibjp1rjkegpzXPIm48f66xEgI9TZSVurzLZszTPLRZxE3H0SJuOnauOR6Bnta8qxVx42lzDSNgBIzAcggsLeIU+ZqCx+/ECXWfjcAyCFytiOtJSS9D7f69mqN9cGie5uFpaREnnizi/GO/84zY6/WiudQDAhZxPbDgGIoI9DRRigE68wYB8zTPQLCIm47jmsJ0epSna3ouncaoB4ueeLKI62FEOIYiAj1NlGKAzrxBwDzNMxAs4qbjaBE3HTvXHI9AT2ueRdx4/lxjJQR6migrdXmXzZineWi7ZhH3n/yLf3T4/370Z03H3/3Hvz8C3CLuCBJnLIhAT2ve1Yq4Bfm1ayNgBIzAaASWFnEKaE3B0/rFhv/yf/5vDt/54XebDsReTmv2KbfteyOwJQJXK+J6UtJbDoCe2zZHPbNzF5t5usPinKulRZx4WlPwWMSNGxHiaFwtW6+NQE88WcStzb7ba0agp4nSHPQVGoqnP3n9pweESMvxL3/7u1eI1HCXLeLW2Yn7v//k3zV9bPuXf/tXR4T9+V//xQER3HL8/qvx34LVXDpq2BldIdATTxZxXQ0NBxMR6GmixLh8fR8B8cRDq3XnBcHidB8Bi7h1RFzrx7b/5o9/4z5Bh8NhzBhH6I1Nmktj69l+XQR64skibl3u3doIBHqaKCPCvjpT8TTmAbcXEbfm7qJFnEWc5tLVLSI763BPPFnE7WzwXFO4PU2Ua8J9bF/F0yWKuDX7ZBFnEae5NHYO2n5dBHriySJuXe7d2ggEepooI8K+OlPxtKbgWQvkNftkEWcRp7m01vh2O9MQ6Ikni7hpHLrWCgj0NFFW6O5umxBPawqetcBas08WcRZxmktrjW+3Mw2BnniyiJvGoWutgEBPE2WF7u62CfG0puBZC6w1+2QRZxGnubTW+HY70xDoiadFRNzTp08P77333uGjjz46vHz58iRKz58/P3z22WdHB/lLpZ5IWKqPe/drjvbBoHhaU/CshcyafbKIs4jTXFprfLudaQj0xNPsIg7x9u67794IMsTcgwcPDqfEmOpwjgf1l0o9kbBUH/fu1xztg0HxtKbgWQuZNftkEWcRp7m01vh2O9MQ6ImnWUWcduAiLOywPXr0KGYdXSPcsFsz9UTCmv3eU1vmaB9siac1Bc9ayKzZJ4s4izjNpbXGt9uZhkBPPM0q4t5+++3Dq1evjlB5/Pjx4cWLF0f5yrCIExI+RwR6migxLl/fR0A8jRE8H//6J4ff/bMfNh0/+vsf3W9wxbsxfUKEnZN6FHG//ke/2cQRXJZS648/r/m3U/1jvyWmnDcGAa15Y+osZTuriKvtuLFDN7TTZhG3FL379tvTRNk3kstGL57GCJ7/7gffavpj5zxwS3/wfNke3Xkf06dLFHGtgge7UrKIK6FSz9Ncqlu4pAcEeuJpNhH37Nmzm/fZSgAj4J48eVIqusmziKtCc9UFPU2UqybiROfF0xjBYxF3DGqPO3EWcfd5GjPG/We37mN3SXda83roUzciji9A6EDUnfoyxLng9UTCuX251PrmaB/MiqcxDziLuGNuLeL8Tpzm0vHo6CPnL//2r252xtkdP3X83X/8+z6CXiCKnnjqQsTxMyTxp0j4+JWPZpcUcj2RsMAYuwiX5mgfNIoni7jLeyfOO3H35+CYMX6JO3H/5o9/YxevQdxnbf47rXnzex7vsQsRVwqbj2D5osRSqScSlurj3v2ao30wKJ7GPOAucSfu3C9reCfOO3GaS73OfIu4W2Z64mk2Ece3Uvl9uFJiZ4135sYmPl5dKvVEwlJ93Ltfc7QPBsXTtYu4c4WpRZxFnOZSrzPfIu6WmZ54mlUl1UQX77j1KOIgQgfU6FrnufPk1+c73OfAYm6eWv3NEfsl+fiVH/zqofXbiP/t//lLzR/L/Pbv/V9QMuv8bMV9yT7lGH7m859vwm/Mz3H82g9/4wi3b33/203twOWYj1PpT+apdTyM6RPvYmXslujTv/7h/37UzpjxQEw5zr3dZz7BpHVMlHjK/kpjZi8Y3Qz2Dv6ZVcTxZ7bYdYuJd91qPz0iu9K7b/hB/C2VNHiW8m+/5yNgjs7HcA0P4sk7cef9bErrTtwYwRN/v0088a5Wq7hqfWBjV0qt7YzpE+IgpyX6xK5TTmPGuN+JO+Yp47nXe82lHuKfVcQh2NiN02/CScDpXh2O4kw2iDb9UDDX/mKD0Lrec08T5XpZON1z8TTmAXfuR4+no5rHYs0+WcT541TNpXlG7/xe/HHqLaY98TSriKN77KrxbhxiDiGWd+awiSKOe4Qcu3gPHz68qUf90u7cLXzz/NsTCfP06PK8mKN9cCqe1hQ8ayGzZp8s4iziNJfWGt9j27GIu0WsJ55mF3FjB8VW9j2RsBUGvbdrjnpn6DY+8bSm4FkLmTX7ZBFnEae5tNb4HtuORdz9NW8sfkvYW8Qtgap9zoJA7wvaLJ28ACfiaU3BsxZsa/bJIs4iTnNprfE9th2LuFvEeuLJIm7sKLb9agj0NFFW6/QOGxJPawqetWBas08WcRZxmktjxveP/v5HB77A0nKUvhQypi2LuFu0pvA0BucxthZxY9Cy7aoI9DRRVu34zhoTT2sKnrUgWrNPFnEWcZpLY8Y3wqz1W8Tx28pj2pCtRdwtElN4EoZzny3i5kbU/mZDoKeJMlunLtCReFpT8KwF45p9soiziNNcGjO+LeLGoDWP7RSe5mn52ItF3DEmzukEgZ4mSieQdBmGeFpT8KwFxJp9soiziNNcGjO+LeLGoDWP7RSe5mn52ItF3DEmzukEgZ4mSieQdBmGeFpT8PzJ6z890F7LcQ5oa/bJIs4iTnNpzJi1iBuD1jy2U3iap+VjLxZxx5g4pxMEepoonUDSZRjiqUfBw18MOCf12Kcxf90gvgMlnpb46wb+iw1fO/orGGv9xQaLuHNm+LS6mkvTas9byyJuXjztbUYEepooM3br4lyJpx4Fj0XcD9+MN/FkEde248dL/DmNGeMWcf6zW3n8LHFvEbcEqvY5CwJ66MzizE4WQ0A8jXnAnftnt1o/erSIs4jLf7+19ZucFnHHS4a/nXqLida8Y4TWz7GIWx9zt9iIQE8TpTHkqzQTTxZx32r+qQc+AsupVZj649Rj7JbYXbSIyyP0cLCIu8VEa94xQuvnWMStj7lbbESgp4nSGPJVmokniziLuDwB8i5Y7X6MMC0JYIu4to+I4zuSmauW+3NFHDy1Hi3xbGWjNW+r9mO7FnERDV93hUBPE6UrYDoLRjxZxFnE5aFZE2053yLuFjnNpYzj0P2evtiQeR+6H+rz1mVTeFoqZou4pZC137MR6GminN2ZC3YgniziLOLyMB96SMeySxRx3/3df3XzIJwYfgAAIABJREFU8SO7V6eOv/zbv7qBTnMp4zh0bxE3hM4yZVN4WiaSw8Eibilk7fdsBHqaKGd35oIdiCeLOIu4PMyjUBu6vkQR9z/83v8y+h1JzaWM49C9RdwQOsuUTeFpmUgs4pbC1X5nQKCniTJDdy7WhXjqUcT9Z995v+kPg/OuUOldqx77NEbwxHegxNMS74/5d+KOfyfOIu74CyhDQj6X9bxgai71EKN34npgwTEUEehpohQDdOYNAuLpkgSPqL2kPokni7i2LwHwEWhOY8bDXkTc0n2KGGahNnQf6/V2rbnUQ1wWcT2w4BiKCPQ0UYoBOvMGAfE05mGw1u/ETd21ErWX1CfxZBFnEafxzXnMGJ8iTGNbQ6Itl8V6vV1rLvUQl0VcDyw4hiICPU2UYoDOvEFAPI15GFjEHX/U5N+JaxNXpY+9lxCm3omb5yPiuExmoTZ0H+v1dq01r4e4FhFxT58+Pbz33nuHjz766PDy5cumfmL3wQcf3NSj/tKpJxKW7ute/ZujfTAnnizi/MWGPGKHHtKxbMyOqUXcfZTP/WLDmHnrnbhb7LXm3Wdim7vZRRzi7d133z189tlnB8TYgwcPDs+fPx/sHQLu0aNHhydPntzUwwf3S6aeSFiyn3v2bY72wZ54GvMw8E6cd+Is4u52HiVMNZfGzHyLuDFozWM7had5Wj72MquI0w5cbAYxd0qQSfTFetrJi3lzXm9BAlv+Lcdv/eEP5uzqYr54aLf0Bxtsx6YtOBobo+0PB/FkEeeduDwfolAbuvZO3K2o11zKOA7dW8QNobNM2RSelolk5p8Yefvttw+vXr06ivXx48eHFy9eHOWT8cUXXxwozwk/Dx8+zNmz3W9BwtAiFst4N2YPCXEW4x66xnZs2oKjsTHa3iJO47733UXNpzHztvWPxfsnRuZ5f0wcjVlXLOLGoDWP7RSe5mn52MusO3G1HTd26NiRKyXyeXeulNihK4nCku3YvC1I0GJ/6mwRd8vmFhyNHUe2t4jTfLaIO54NwubU2Ttx3onLY+R4NPWT09OzaTYR9+zZs5svJZRgRqjxvlsp8bFpTeBRht8l0hYk5EFau7eIu2V8C46WGGuX7lM8+eNUf5yax3ptjcv5FnEWcXlM5LHU073WvB5isohbkYU8SGv3FnG3pPQ0UVYcJrtrSjxZxFnE5cFbW+NyvkWcRVweE3ks9XSvNa+HmCziVmQhD9LavUXcLSk9TZQVh8numhJPFnEWcXnw1ta4nG8RZxGXx0QeSz3da83rISaLuBVZyIO0dm8Rd0tKTxNlxWGyu6bEk0WcRVwevLU1LudbxFnE5TGRx1JP91rzeohpNhHHFxD4IkIp8cWG2rttlHGUUs1fyXZsHr9f58MYeAx4DHgMeAx4DHgMjB0DYzXHUvaziTgCBIRSGvqCAl9qoLyUav5KtmPz5HuJr9uX/lzLmPh+989+eGj9ar9+JDL6Zycv/6+mdD/mf7/n9on6rX1SX8QR92v1acx4GPPr5epTPJc4KeWd+63HMX1q5Sj+pETkKfbP130hYJ764qMUTeRozLwt+dpz3po/m9K65sVnYORpa5zLqmtiVPxUSN5V019jGHLJT5PkP8+Fn9pPjwz5ai0TCWMmyhSyW+OJdhZxt2iII+4s4u5+3X1oHJZE/RJj3CIuzth9XMf5tI+Iry/KyNGYeXtpSFnEtTM6q4hDiDEI9ZMhEnC6V1h55w3BhpDTb8JhXxJ2qj/HWZNlzEQZenjGsqjYp8S6loj7L/7H/+pArC3H7/yHL6Z05U2dv/zbvzowMVsOVRJH3FvEWcRpXPg8DYE4n6Z5cK2lEYgcjXk2LR3X2v4t4toRn1XE0Sx/J5V32RiMCLG8M4dNFnHkYcdfaKAe9U/9vdX2LpYtNVnGTJQo1Iau9yLi+Oiu5ySOiNEiziKu57G6h9jifNpDvNcYY+RozLPp0rCyiGtndHYR1970tpaaLGMmypBwi2XnirhzkWkVPBZxv3EE9ZjxsJd34v78r//i5m/X8u3RU0ccx6euBZ7mku597hMB89QnLzGqyNGYtSj6uIRri7h2Fq9WxOkrwmMmyqmHmsot4toH4JClOMKmVZie+2WNMeNhLyJuCONcpjHcclbdyJPyfO4PAfPUHyc5osjRmLUo+9n7Pa/ftLzmg80f/dUfH3V3zM8dtax12MTneuTpqPGVMyziRvwR9ylkr8znTXOtgqf3nbg4UVr7ZBF3+3tTU8dd6xjHTinypDyf+0PAPPXHSY4ocnTNIi7jMvbeIm4sYju012QZM1FaH3BRsW8BTavgsYi7jo9Tx4zB1jFuETcG1T5steb1EY2jKCEQORrzbCr5uuY8i7grYF+TZcxEaX3AbS3i/uVvf/fm40fE3KmjZ6rFETG2CtM97cS1Yn/ut5Vb28GudYxbxI1BtQ/bOJ/6iMhRZAQiR2OeTdnPtd9bxF3BCNBkGTNRWh9wW4u4S6FPHNEfi7jp304dMx5ax7hF3BhU+7CN86mPiBxFRiByNObZlP1c+71F3BWMAE2WMROl9QFnETfPABJHeLOIs4ibZ1Rdr5c4n64Xhb57Hjka82zqu1frR2cRtz7mq7eoyTJmoljErUuTOKLV1o+IP/71T5o/EiyJ7THj4dxvp7ai6Y9TW5Gy3RACcT4N2blsOwQiR2PWou0i7rNli7g+eZk1Kk2WMRPFIm5WCk46E0cnDYPBj/7+RwdET8tR+mr6mPGwlojjN5Na+oMN/T8ntY5x7JSm8KS6Pq+HgHlaD+upLUWOxqxFU9u71HoWcZfKbOiXJsuYidL6gCvt8ISmfdmIgDhqNJ/FbMx4WEvEzdKxRietY9wirhHQjsy2mE8ddX8XoUSOxqxFu+jcikFaxK0I9lZNabKMmSitDziLuHlYFUfzeGvzMmY8WMTdYroFT21s2ioiYJ4iGn1eR47GrEV99ma7qCzitsN+tZY1WcZMFIu41ei5aUgcrdnqmPFwiSKu9WNb7JS24Elt+9yOgHlqx2ory8jRmLVoq3h7bdcirldmZoxLk2XMRLGIm5GABlfiqMF0NpMx4+ESRdwUILfgaUqc117HPPU/AiJHY9ai/nu2boQWcevivUlrmixjJopF3LpUiaM1Wx0zHizibpnZgqc1x8SltGWe+mcycjRmLeq/Z+tGaBG3Lt6btKbJMmai/K9/8H80/VHe3/kPX2zSp0trVByt2a8x4+G7v/uvmsbDpb8juQVPa46JS2nLPPXPZORozFq0Vc/46SeO3pJFXG+MLBCPJsuYicLAcFoPAXG0XouHw5jxgK3T4bAFT8Z9PALmaTxma9eIHI1Zi9aOU+3pzzrqvpezRVwvTCwYhybLmIliEbcgIQXX4qhQtFjWmPFgEXdLwxY8LTYALtixeeqf3MjRmLVoq55ZxG2F/F27D+4ur+tKk2XMRLGIW3eMiKM1Wx0zHizibpnZgqc1x8SltGWe+mcycjRmLdqqZxZxWyF/1+4yIu6LLw6H9967PT777K612tXLl4cDdvl4/rxW4+x8TZYxE8Ui7mzYRzkQR6MqnWk8ZjxYxN2CvQVPZ9J8ldXNU/+0R47GrEVb9cwibivk79qdX8QhyN5++3B4+vRWlD1+fDh89NFdi6UrxNujR3fCTwIQHwslTZYxE8UibiEyKm7FUaV4kewx48Ei7paCLXhahPwLd2qe+ic4cjRmLdqqZ5cg4n79j36z6c8axj/TGHnaCnu1O7+Ie/fdw+HZM/k/HF69uhVoQ7tqiDiE24pJJIyZKBZxKxJ02OaF+THjwSLudjxoLq07OtzaWATM01jE1rePHI1Zi9aP9LZFRNzPfu8bWzVfbZdn9T/49teajinP9chTNYiVCuYVcXyMys5bTp98cjh88EHOvbu3iLvDwldvENhiooxZOC3ibqnagqc3g8QXzQiYp2aoNjOMHI1Zi7YK+NPf/Oc3Qmmr9mvtWsTVkDmVjxgrfXTKR6zs0NWSRVwNmavOjwvaWkCMWTgt4m5Z2YKntcbDJbVjnvpnM3I0Zi3aqmeKcav2a+1axNWQOZXPR6IIslJ6MLDpZxFXQuzq8+KCthYYWpRatuIt4m5Z2YKntcbDJbVjnvpnM3I0Zi3aqmeKcav2a+1axNWQOZV/johD5Olg164mBk/F0FiuyaJB2PLQnvLZeWM4NisgII4KRYtljRkP2Dpt8+6icR+PwBbzaXyU110jcjRmLdoKNcW4Vfu1di3iasiQj1CT2OIcv5AwVcThN37xgWu+4RrzhmKaUKbJokFoETcBxIWriKOFm7nnfsx4wNbJIm4vY2CL+bQXbHqJM3I0Zi3aKn7FuFX7tXYt4mrInMo/R8Rl33zDFSG3UIqTZaEm7PZMBLbgSItSi6i3iLsleAuezhxaV1ndPPVPe+RozFq0Vc8U41bt19q1iKshcyqf33Ur/bYbX2yIO3an/Kicnb6FEpMlHjQT7zWZ5szLvnx/n4OpeMzJ3be+/+2mr6Uj8rCdGrPr1bmfk09wLvkz/nX8z8GmhPUaeefE3GvdMWvRUn04xZ1iPGWn+FrtZD/1/Cs/+NXmdRzbKe3Qlx7SvCqp9gWFWv4pBBYWcaead/m2CDCx1k76n6V34tqR34Kn9uhsKQTMk5Do9xw5GrMWbdUjxbhV+7V2vRNXQ6Yln7+8wA/8xsQXFYbebyuVTRV+sd2B6zhZBsxctCECW3CkRckirp34LXhqj86WQsA8CYl+z5GjMWvRVj1SjFu1X2vXIq6GTEs+H6fGH/x98uT4o1RsonDjo1YOfiyYRNlKX2xo6ZJttkEgLmhrRaBFySKuHfEteGqPzpZCwDwJiX7PkaMxa9FWPVKMW7Vfa9ciroZMaz7CTd9gRZzxTlxMWcRRRh7CjXrs5q30EyMxLF/3hUBc0NaKTIuSRVw74lvw1B6dLYWAeRIS/Z4jR2PWoq16pBi3ar/W7p//9V8ciK3lwHZsijyNrTu3/bzvxM0d3YL+eiJhwW7u2vUWHGlRsohrHzpb8NQenS2FgHkSEv2eI0dj1qKteqQYt2p/q3YjT1vFoHYt4oSEz90hsMVE0aJkEdc+HLbgqT06WwoB8yQk+j1HjsasRVv1SDH+yes/3SqETdqNPG0SQGjUIi6A4cu+ENhiomhRsohrHwtb8NQenS2FgHkSEv2eI0dj1qKteqR3zzhfU4o8bd3vqxVxWwPv9vtEYMzCia2TETACRmAJBMasRUu03+LzWkVcCzZr2VytiOtJSa9F9t7a2YKjMQunRdztiNqCp72N5R7iNU89sDAcQ+RozFo07HW50msVcZGn5dBt82wR14aTrTZAYIuJMmbhtIi7HRRb8LTBcNx9k+apfwojR2PWoq16ZhG3FfJ37VrE3WHhq84QiAvaWqGNWTgt4m5Z2YKntcbDJbVjnvpnM3I0Zi3aqmcWcVshf9euRdwdFr7qDIG4oHUWmsMJCJinAEbHl+apY3J+HFrkyCKuX74iT1tHebUibkvgn8e/VrFBIFu3v0GX3aQRMAJGYFcIWMTtiq7Ngr1aEbeVkv7ss88O7/FXLDZMD/irGCm9y9+3TYlY10y5vTEcPXny5EC/OBCp+Mr+zu3L3P5a4sn9aqmzts0YntaOze3dIWCe7rDo9SpyZBHXK0uHQ+Rp6yiPn+ZbR7RS+1uRgBDoUcSVhF0pb0l6cnutHGVMX758eUD8TBVd1C+lHF/JZs68Ur/m9D+Xr1aeYnuvXr2Kt75eAYEpPK0QlpsICESOLOICMJ1dRp62Ds0ibmUG8oN55eZvmiuJkVLe2mIzt9c6Uaj37Nmze1CeI+JKWOA8x3evwQVuSv1aoJmzXbbyFBt6/PhxvPX1CghM4WmFsNxEQCByZBEXgOnsMvK0dWgWcSszIBH35ZdfHj755JObHaPPP/+8GAW7FR9//PHgrhL+ECyffvrpoba7gX9saI92SyKllJeFEf6/+OKLGx+KnfZfv359FD92tMnBdUvK7fGxKPFSX+1FrGiXOggCcOJabdEuseVEHfnKscsfWOCLI2LKfU60FznKWFAu3GRX8hP9Ko5Sv7CjvrAt+aI94YZdxCzXxy4n6mtccY4YyFYxgOX3v/99Zb8502/FKE5USN133nnnDca5XHbxrHjAsBZP5FY8ZCyIN6YXL168iTOPB+zEn/pbwjv66/m6pwdPzzhtGVvkyCJuSyaG2448DVsuX3q1Im55aMst8KB49OjR4e233z48ffr05mHJw5rrmGTHQ4drdmXyThD1Pvroo5vyDz744MZv9ME15dTDB23QbkmwteQpphg7vmk7JvJ4xw571SGOUynHQN2HDx/e+CphxQOWtsATLNRP2imJOD4mzbFTR0n+iIN8jvjRaik+2hZH9JE4YsIHNuAhO+7pWy0pjlq/IrZcxz7gE9/0U3Zcqx/qFzbCN37RBTvaFd6KPwqn6AM7OIoJf/JBn3N/qU+d6CfWz9dxnOMPHmLM2JOHHfHAg8ZkxkKYUEdlwqLGnzDGjnaEZY7T90ZgTgT2JOL+/f/b9h/1OfGxr1sErlbEnaukW/62JjY58SDgoRATD20edDFxnx9UPIyVKOMhGFN8QJGvB3J8AJOfxUhrXil26sa4Sn0hjlKb1I0p23zzm9988zCWXck/OOQdkpKI4yGNCIgpxq78HEctv8QRsUTeuEdYxFTiLpbrutSvUrzEAS5K8BTFJPe0yZHHGWW0owRGOV7KsSOVfHz9619/U45NtFedPOZjfDeOK/+UsCK+GDNV4SyOAfgnZSzwp75k3LDHLzZK3Me2aDuWy24P53PXvD30ce8xRo72IOL4w/c854j1mlLkaet+W8RNZOAcERcfCmo+CgdEV37YYheFCcIoPrgpx68eUNxzfaqtUvu1vJq/+EDGBiGQE3HEh2wu5z5iwD0iTg/jaJ/tSr4jVqrLwzcL2hi77LL/Ur4Essp0RiRGEZQ5kV2pXZXpnPtFm+TlBN6Z9xJuxFXiJvYXsUU7MUXhQ1kWMT/90z99r31ijBjgK8bHfUv/scNPFt7kx5hL9+SRaLeExbn8/dj9rk49PXh2BdyKwUaO9iDigMYibsUBUmjKIq4ASkvWkiIOsaNdNR5COmqCQPHm8nwvu/wAJL8ljzjwmVN8IPPAlKhQ3Jzpz9YiLsfNfYxd5SUsKIv5NSzoY8SoxkGpXbWvM3UjZrRZEiQ5P99HfyVuYr/iteqdOmcRh0DCD3HUUkv/qQsG9Blf8chx5nu1W8OC/MiT7Fv5k/2ezlEg7Cnua4o1cmQR1y/zkaeto7SIm8jA0iKOj814eOUj7r7xUjrv/vBA5OA9Ix5OSjUBUXrgteTVHnzxgUy8evDm2Esv0StWzjmGuXfiaEMPaWH2la98JYZwc53jkEHMr2Eh/6pT4yBiJtt8pu7cIq7GjdqOfVRePrObCbfC8Kd+6qfujTvsGae0hU0cs/LV0n9s8fH+++8fzQPaj6kWNzxlW+qdy19sey/XPT149oLZ2nFGjnoScfx5rdrBs/DT3/znb8qf/fDf3ny8SvwcfOR6aSnytHXflhNxfCQTBEVTR1mY2enh47jOf0dqaRHHw+tU4kHIw0iJOkP3sis98Fryag+++EDmgRljUJst5xwDfkoP4GxHv6PYoa1SHOwQIY45K8XYlZf9l/JrWPQu4k5xU+u7MOAM3pGXEtayBw9eDcjtlnBXnXgucRvLdV2LuzaGzuVP7fpsBJZCoCcR9wu//Is3H5u2Pvei3d/83d8sBZH9svmxCAqIMV7UL/xlgGp7iBYORAkvgqdvvFXrTSw4V0nHQTp0ncOrPTziQ6j2Tlz0xXtJ+gae8rOI46Oz/G4StrEt1W3Jq8UeH8jYlN67UjtD5xzD3Dtx+igxxhBjV36Oo5QP/vllfexy/zMn8lVqV2U6ZwFT4hzb/N4YMUSRJX/YneIGwRVFrurqXOp3/jhVtjpTJ7/j2dJ/6ue+yWc+1zirYVHqBz5b+cvt7+H+3DVvD33ce4yRo55EnP7Q/dCzrlTGDt0lpsjT1v2bX8Qh3vRRR6uIQ7TlnSd8FF6Qnwuwc0koDdhSXo6XhwQP55zyQ4iHHg+amOJL+fnhJOFHvhLXWWiwM5Lbwr4lrxZ7fCDz0Vl+YON/SBgo3hzD3CIuiyJiyj+PUcOilE+8uV8I68jBnCKOGErfTs3vG9J+ScSVxBQ+Yx+ItyT8sSOVxsBXv/rVe32O/n5c7Wh8xTEjm9KZmEvzJbeRx4581bCgnDpxTpHXyp/87+l87pq3p77uNdbIUU8iDjyn7Mb9+V//xV6pGIw78jRouELh/CIufgzaKuL46YxYj47zA7IL7sadS0JJsJXyMoelhyA2+SGEHWJI7xPx0OJhpocXZz0IdY099aL4Ux5tkI8IUFvRTg806ivJTve12BWH7IiTQw9I2kFo6F52+ZzbO1fESYzoo1buJW6ICWwk4jIWYEq8cecqx0dZ7mcWWZRHTNXnjJny45m6il355Klf5HFNP2KiPfUz5nNN/biDmzkVLsIDHOIOJve0BzZc4+8nfuIn7o07uCYuyknUjziSR/9j+dDYwDb3mXZjytyobAgLYopY0OdW/uR/T+dz17w99XWvsUaOehNxY3fjLnUXjrEVedp6rM0v4mKPWkVcegi9ccHvqYX3l97kz3BxLgklwVbKy6HyoIgPJJXnhxL5PIAkunhw5p9a4EHNw4sybPHNfdx940EpH+QjCnl4YRfjUB5x6OGaY6rFXhIM+EMgKR7iO5Vye9/5zneKAijbcZ/FDv0UNhE3BIFioj+UZSyIlTxwixjldulP7qdEt/pKfdrJqYRZtin1C7FDPvFx0L74Un3aG8Ib4aL6UUypPnUZK9gwtmgjiizhQxn9+973vndjq3FHPNRRG6UYtSNc8q84dM59pv+5zyVuqD8GC80Ptcu5xl+02cv1uWveXvq55zgjR72JOHD9Z7/2S83vxl3qLhw4RJ62Hm/bizge7ul/1W9AIb/h4f/GfsWLkmAr5a0Y0tU2VRI7lwDGpfbrErhxH4zA0gj0KOIQZqXnXM675F24pXkf6/9qRVxPSnosaddi38rRpYqdvfSrladrGbe99tM89crMXVyRox5FHJEi0LJoy/d89HrJKfK0dT/Hizh2x/iYVEdtF42etXycutFOXE8kbD0Iem3/FEd83InQ4SO5S0p769cpni6Jmz33xTz1z17kqFcRd2o3ji9AXHqKPG3d1/EibkzEFnFj0LJtQuDUROH9s6F3v5K73dzurV+neNoN8BceqHnqn+DIUa8iDhSHduMufReO/keeth5V24s4vriQ/iD8G1Bq+W8Mpl9AQjzwFO9F0px52Zfv73MwFY81uCu1MTVe1xvmvYT13HnmYJiDqfjMzVOrv6nx9lzvW9//9smPLfUx5lL9qOH/O//Pvzv8p//iPz+K72c+//k3z9Fa3RxryS7b9HhP3D2k7UUcKNR27Gr5PSDnGIyAETACRsAILIRAzztxdLkU3zXswi1E92S3fYg4ftSXH/yNiXflOv6x3xiqr5dBgP99OfWPgHnqnyMiNE/98xQ5Kokk7bzl8xY9489p/aP//h+/2Y37J9/9p1uEsUmbkadNAgiNzi/iEF862EnTdfytLARbvOcjVWyfPbsNjXt+AHih34ijkZ5ICHz4MiBgjgIYHV+ap47JCaGZpwBGp5eRo95FHBDGGH/rD3/QKarzhxV5mt/7OI/zizi+rVo64k5bFnHEjKhDuCHm+LYh4m/B1BMJC3Zz167N0T7oM0/maR8I9B9lnEtRIOWdt3y/Vc+0G3dNu3BgHXnaCnu1O7+Ik+fOzz2R0DlUm4VnjjaDflTD5mkUXJsZm6fNoG9uOHK0BxFHx9iBu6ZdOPoceWomdyFDi7iFgLXb8xHoaaKc35vL9WCe9sGteeqfp8jRXkRc/6jOH2HkaX7v4zxaxI3Dy9YrItDTRFmx27tryjztgzLz1D9PkSN+VJdve7Yc/ffssiKMPG3dM4u4rRlw+1UEepoo1SBd0NVHC6ajjoDnUx2bXkrMUS9MDMfRE08WccNcuXRDBHqaKBvC0H3T5ql7im4CNE/982SO+ueICHviySJuH2Nm8SifP39+ePXq1aR2nj59evP3Sx88eHDAD8dHM/zGX5wo58Q3qVMHfrrwfr+m+rn0epGnS+/rnvtnnvpnzxz1zxER9sSTRdw+xsziUfKH5J/pd/pGtEadd9999/Dyx7/px5m/Z4q/KSkKyThRpsY3JQbq0Ifcr6m+eqsnruaKK/I0l0/7mR8B8zQ/pnN7NEdzI7qMv554sohbhuPdeWXXiT+8PjY9efLk6I/QnyPiHj9+/CaEOFGmxvfG2cgLRCP9uMTEjumcKfI0p1/7mhcB8zQvnkt4M0dLoDq/z554mnc1nx+rxTxuSQJi6eOPPz4ggEq7X19++eXhk08+uSn/9NNPjz7mZLcKH9jhA9uYlF8SWNEuXuPv9evXb7LwoXZqsRL7+++//6YfL168uKk/JOIoU1xx141r/L3zzjs3Z65/8IO7XwDP8dEQNvji4DonfNIP6grPkl2uhw1iUn7VL+y4Vpuff/55rnrTlvqi+tGIWFSf65xirCX/2DMm8AGWEUP5qrUBv/QNEceZo1RffnQWZ4yDbM/99773veJYpIxYNB7zOI1Y0kYcf7RNXXwQZwlLxedzGwJbrnltEdrKHO1jDPTEk0XcymOGh9WjR49uHsC65gGlxEddb7/99s37WHp4Yh8/AlM9hAbXfOzHmcSZ+pw52FFq+Wgzf1xJTLSLbx6++OKeHTEl6tAWNlzrIa12ZceZhzH1eVdO5dwr8c4bPh4+fPgmZvKUSvGp3/hTDLLnTD7+KCNu7nMfor2uaQs7+Yz9OoUtdVWP9hBM9J2kMvIVi3xTjlihXZXDL3WUGAOUS8ApTpVzRvioj/iWP5VRh5g4c8TiakWzAAAcCklEQVRxFf3omhjEGf6oG3kh1p/8yZ+8Eb1c03fOJM603zJOaQO7mIgvY3kq3ljf1/cR6OnBcz8y3wkBcyQk+j73xJNF3MSx8p0ffvfQcmT3PNTig4jr+PDiYRYf7NQnj0NJD0eJAx6qenDinwd5TAiPU4kHJiJCCaEQBRv5tIP/mCQoYh6x4C8m+hT7QFl84Ms2YhEnSo6v1CdiywLjgw8+kOubc6kP9wx+fEN7wlTlJWxzm9SLfdfHwKV2M/fUi2NDwld5eRwQFxhm3mLctItNTAixlkTd2Bfq0J+YR1uIuNJYpAx8SmUlLPFLm0rcx7ZoO5bLzuc2BOJ8aqthq7UR6Jkj5p7m8tq4xPaIYet1oCee2lbziOCFXJ9LQouAwyYmBl9+oFKOEFKiPIswBmysx8MxPtxUl4c9D8ecSkIr2+BvSAzIPguAku9SfPRJYkS+aBPbmFpEHH5K/UfkROGJ74it2sl9UH4859hq2OY2cz35JK4sYimL/S31KQoXxkEJw8xbxIA2MsYt/acefvJ/KMiP9fH9D//hPyT7KFFW6lMNS9qKsdewPGrIGU0InLvmNTVio7MQ6IGjmlBjPsa15qyONlbO6x3ViKG0rjS6nMWsB57UEYs4ITHyPEXEtQy++ICMIcX82sORfMQe53i0PAzzBC2JM+KJcXBfsqvFF/vDdSmuKGriRInx4b8kznK7NbvchxxXKbbsW3VyfqlP8oeIwz4ecUcx9l3+T50jLtiyANM/2qillv5TF9/iN8Yc65M/VsRRB9855flRwzLX830bAnE+tdWw1doI9MBRbR3iP1h5g2FJfGrrBDHE/+wtGUPNdw88KTaLOCEx8tyriEMU8ODNx6nJl8WAHt4ZlvgAp6xkNzT5+HiTRYKD99WwjSkuIHGixPioQ7s55XZrdrkP2Q/3WUBk36qT83M92ZHPkXmJ/Yh9V718hke+TBIxzP87xoa2sCnx3tJ/2sWHvriS41Zc9N8iTmj0fY7zqe9I9xsd801fBGNuxF2tPE9jL1UmjqjLnGN3OvqgDve0U/vCEOUxhtgO16qHf9qJiTjil8uwVaLN+OUj2qGcfOLM/vhilvqATU7kUc4RvzyGnWJkDSMm4UMZMWR/xBIxy+XUwwd1ZVf60mCOsXYvnmrla+ZbxE1Eu1cRx4N3SqJenCh5QspnFgAlOyZJjoNJxke9cdHAJt7TRhQycaLE+DQJFZPOud2aXe6D6sdzji37lm3Oz/VkV8tXOefY95iva30MGXmKuMhOZ+wy5pS19B+7Id9qg/5bxAmNvs9xPvUd6T6jYy4w3xA0XLPzzj1rH0mfkuTeqR75vDJBHe3as+PEfI3vgMme9YLr6FdlioE5jL+Y+I8+flWXNVwJ+/jlsqG1hvqlL44RD23yH3Zs1IcorGhTcctP7qP8EFN8FYWYyFPSsyViRvv4jQkc6bvsiI82pqSe5pJF3BQGD4emLzXkd+IYxKcGDYNPk16h6eGtewZnHMTKz3bKbznjL07YkjjDTxYAJbtSfCwqeQucNvNEi0ImTpQYH5M9f2GB2PAfJzu+4wIlHHIflB/POTbaLHGX28z15DPbKT+eY99jvq7pWwnDyJtsdSbuvIi39J/6tAVvQwmMx4q4Gpb4ivzVsByKx2V1BOJ8qlu5ZCoCzDPGdkyMZ80hxndp3WKca15/4xvfuDcH8EUZNkr4ic8J2iSPVIqBdUtrBHZ5TczrTr5Xu8QgP+SV+kMsrC/5XbaIA3XjayTyFftYyyOfGKIt+MZ1AxviKK17+dlawov6p1JPc8ki7hRblfIpO3G4Kg3w2ASDUxNS+aVJHAex7DgzKOP/eMjLAzfa6xp/cYKWxBm2WQCU7Ig/x5ftJDhzX+MCEidKji8vAsTGYhX9cZ0XrFIfhEE80170pXoZy9xmqR51S4sK+dEffc+L31BMwjDyFv2pbuYs38sun4k584hNjBGMxoo4fBBDjlX/c1ccNSxV7vM4BOJ8GlfT1qcQYCxn0UAd5lAUbqV1i7mgOfX1r3/9SAjiJ85Z5lxtXpZiiOsg1zEefMf1g/u4BnOvRJvRNvqVDecYq/KzbfSDDfe5T9TJeSVb+gPOOYFFXGNKceGfdsamnuaSRdxY9n5sP1XE8T8GBo4GV35Qch8f5ggyBmMcpLXBTWiUxfosDrSnRaLWXWzixMqiS/XyRCjZEYN2rTRBYszqE/0iP4pOLXLEy/9KlXJ83Ot/r9hwnRcwfM8p4uAuLoD4z20SF/mlRBlHjXv+R0m5uAIXcNR9FPOMB9rmgDeND+LDTnWIOf8vFQ6JAZtcluNmLGWciVGJvk4RcRlL4hf38k07NSxl43M7Aj09eNqj3odlSYQo8iiKGNOaq5RTT2sl91/96ldvxjzjPh5x3SU/zkG1Q77+UxnrMtfiOsg8o7yWYrzRhjbjMwIf0a9sY6zKq9mqvIQfdUr9zLat8Zbiwv8QFoovn3uaS8uJOP6W5sBAuQeKbLGPR0Fd36t3xs25JEwVcYTMpOJdAgaVJl3sCg9zHs6UM+HipMeO+/hgjXW5jvXxw/2phL8ophjYuV185ElVEnHY0S59jCKBurFP+Oc+CiP8CZdvfvObb8LO8SFC5A972pFwUSX8lyZo7oPs4xmbUl1ipT0ObHKbxFnCTb4z93FRxIbyyH3mWX1m3NCOMJQduOBDMZZwoV+U40P1FF8+Z5xzn2n/Z3/2Z3O1m3vKhvxHLIkljj8cUBcfTvMgcO6aN08Ul+klC4vYyygyeJk+rnd8cSiuAYg41sDSIZ/MX+ZhTuTzvCjVjW3wpQHq18RcjDe2QZ3oh/ZoKyfWlpyy7evXr2+eS7TFwZcpcp9q/cxYt8Zbios2aWds6mkuHaM9tjcle4jlZcoCmSXzG+GGPQMzHuGvAxTrnZF5LgnniLgzwu6uKpN4yiRo6ci5HLW0UbOZOrlr/i45f0ueLhnXuftmnuZG9M5fFhZ3Jfc/nuQ/RVFMIKRiQsSdSjVxU8uv+eM/oPznKQuxVlFEe7kubcX+qe1sS70o2kr41fqTbVvjLcU1dZ3vaS7NL+IQY1LnY0Rc4X8WGgBLnHsiYYn+reXTIm4tpPttx3OpX25iZOYpojHvtV59yF4RSlGsUM69dpnjrhxltXfiot+auKEtdvHHpiwkW0VRFmZqtySWsm1uIwszfNX6mW3BM38iQv28u1+KyyJOrMXzj79OfZNlEReRuahrFgsmQF4A5uzkFg8d9WvKYjhn3/fkawue9oRPL7Gap2WZQCRkMYFYy7tViBMEBq86cB1T6duplEe/NXGDHetW6RUEdgCzn5uMwhcZssCSHes9AkqJOHLfKCuJpWyb28g7c/ip9TOLOOrm1zbAK8eR72nDIk5s1s4WcTVkdp/PJGGSaXFYokNbPHTUryX6c6k+t+DpUrFcsl/maUl0b99nRRRoTURMIaryu55EQT6iQraKTHWiKOEav0o1cUM5ZbFN1rMoFvHF7h/5JNqLvslDYKk8ijTs5hRxaoOY9Nt05CmfviB2SVxzkLKIA98oXqlPrPQ7Jou4iEbrtUVcK1K2KyDgh04BlA6zzFOHpBRCMk8FUGbOQjjEL62VdsVoEuHCkRMcSYQgOjgQJBI22OOzVFe+EDt8QkJdxE0WMwgz+c4fOeIDkaS6UcTRZhSkxCFhpbY5Z1FIXrZVG7RDfIhZYo1iTL6wwaewJIbcf+KgL4o7l8sX55iwk9+Yf+q6p7k0/ztxsfdjRBy2OlDfaZs5up3juicS5ujPJfowR/tg1TyZp30g0H+Unkv9c0SEPfE0XsSxrSuxxTls8x7BT3lrij8lwDXf2ol5rX4a7XoioTHkqzMzR/ug3DyZp30g0H+Unkv9c0SEPfE0QmVNAHeMiMvueYEyff06m5xz3xMJ5/Tjkuuao32wa57M0z4Q6D9Kz6X+OSLCnnjqV8SB1Dki8MRYgIR4iJgl86JvX9/H/xw81uCu1MY5Mbtunf8S1nPnGf86/udgMzdPrf7Oidl162OhFf+57fbACX3uIV2tiOsBfMdgBIyAETACRsAIGIGpCPQh4krvvvHFhqH37ab22PWMgBEwAkbACBgBI3ABCMwv4hBfOvg4VNdRqPHV6niPWOP44otbSClb+IsNF8Cdu2AEjIARMAJGwAhcMQLzizgJsnyOv4mTRRwEkIdwQ/jxp0MQf05GwAgYASNgBIyAETACRQTmF3HFZpxpBIyAETACRsAIGAEjMCcCFnFzomlfRsAIGAEjYASMgBFYCQGLuJWAdjNGwAgYASNgBIyAEZgTAYu4OdG0LyNgBIyAETACRsAIrISARdxKQLsZI2AEjIARMAJGwAjMiYBF3Jxo2pcRMAJGwAgYASNgBFZCwCJuJaDdjBEwAkbACBgBI2AE5kTAIm5ONO3LCBgBI2AEjIARMAIrIXA1Iu7ly5eHDz744PDee+8dnj59enj16lUR4ufPn9/YYMf1UPps4AeJv/jii8NHH31042vIbsj/NZbNyVPkcogDxgN8Mz5o3+k0AlvwRFRwytxyakNgbZ5YV7XuPXnyxPOpgSZz1ACSTaoIXIWI4wH+4MGDwyeffHLgmkXm8ePHR6BQ9ujRozd2us6GPPQpe/jwYS66uedBQxl2+KQt2nQaRmBOnniAwBE+Od59990boZYjwI4ybBgfjJNT4j37uLb7LXhCuMETnMKZ02kE1uYJMRLXPc1B8p3KCJijMi7ObUfgKkQcC39+MLPrwgRS4n+Q2MUFh+u3+VNgIbFjgyCjrCQEMcXPs2fP3tSS7xzDGwNf3CAwJ0+ZNxpABEReShwyJojDqY7A2jwxb+CTM/xYxNW5iSVr88S6yH+EYtIud8zz9R0C5ugOC19NQ+DiRdyLFy+KOzA8zBFkSp9++unRAkTZhx9+eO/B//r1a1Upijj8lsQdixvC0amMwJw8wUHpQZ8FADaff/75UUDwRzxO9xEAky14iq8+ZA7vR+g7ENiKJ4R2XB/FBrvbTscIbDGXzNExD3vPudrZlUUcD/TSThkPDf43WUolsYZ9FIeqh292gpzGITAHT2oxCwB4Kr1fpY/BVc/n0wgsyVNsPXMYy3x9GoG1eIqRWMRFNE5fm6PTGNniDoGrFXHsjEVxVhJkwJQn1B10h+KO25BY82IW0Wu7noMntcTHPYgApRofFgpCqP28JE8xCnMT0Rh/vRZPimxoPZSNz/cRWJsj1sXSxsP9qHzXKwJXK+LYVo7vv80l4iCa9xwQfzEhGGuiIdr5+j4Cc/CER7gG//jRXI0PC4X7HLTcLclTbN/cRDTGX6/FkyLj04f4n2Xl+1xHYA2OENfMJV7x4XkVn4X1yFzSIwJXKeJYVPL/POYUcUwIvqVFGxxcs5jVREOPA6OHmObiib6AP//jjKnGh4VCROn09dI8xQjMTURj3PWaPBEZXCEQnNoRWIsjtcNzD47gymmfCFydiOPdN0RVfgF3ThGnocBuHIfaqokG2ft8h8CcPL3//vtHop2WanxYKNzxcOpqDZ5iDOYmotF+vTZPrHtvvfXWvZ3v9miv03JtjoQyn06w+8cXLZz2h8BViTj9z7C0dVz7oVfqcJRSTfiVbNm+zrt/JTvn3f0Pfg6e+B9njSd25+LHq8KeOvnjcJX5fIfAnPNpiKe7Fm/HBg87p3YE1uaJect/kDyH+uUoR8YY8bzKqOzj/mpEHAtLftcgUsQALom1Wj51a+Ig+tU1D6n8cZ7KfL5DYE6e9PAqCTVaRFSXHjS1/LsofbUmTxFtP2wiGqev1+aJueaP507zEi3W5ii2rWvPKyGxv/PViDgWlqH/aegX4TOFQ0KtVlYSg7TPbpzTMAJz8QSf7AaUuFAE8JF/u48FlRichhFYk6cYiR82EY3T12vzxH+A/InDaV6ixdoclf7jmr+5H+Pzdd8IXIWIY1FhovAAyEekh4/X4gLEdRZ+TAD5YGdP15oYEgGxHkIh+o1t+voOgTl5QmDjT/zoLJ7Uqjjk3rsIQmX4vDZPzCnxp59D0H1tl3W4B9dRujZPcML7xuImns1TecxtyZEiYk7xfDRHQmRf56sRcUyW0hHp4mHBgGYHh4PrPLARZyU/UbThB+EmP9g7nUaghKvyYu0WnlQvnyNP+NQOLFzxAOJjb6dhBDKm8T7WnIsnvU8a29F16ceaYwzXfC2MSueIy1w8MXdKbZFnniLid9c1vMiPaS6O8Im41q8lsO7RFv6d9onAVYi4fVLjqI2AETACRsAIGAEjUEfAIq6OjUuMgBEwAkbACBgBI9AtAhZx3VLjwIyAETACRsAIGAEjUEfAIq6OjUuMgBEwAkbACBgBI9AtAhZx3VLjwIyAETACRsAIGIHeEeCLO1t9OcQirvfR4fiMgBEwAhsgwLfz+ca2fp5pgxBma7L0LVC+panErxDopzb0jU2Vcc7fvI11o13tGvtSDDX7S8qP/Qbj/HupYFv69jJ2+dcC8q9DfPLJJyehiu1znX9m6qSDikH8pQOux46JitvR2RZxoyFzBSNgBIzAZSPAw5YHHokdBoRc6UG7FxQQZjxk4xH7w0M4CgbuwUAJLLhXfX6ig6M1yZ/q69xaf247OCWGMWlKHfxH7MGYsRSxlsjKsRCfxqDK+P1PYafybCNbnWP71Im/DSqbKef4Y/8WcVMQdB0jYASMgBFYBAEefDHx8ONBtdeU+5P7ER/IKot1EApgEBMiLgrBWJavt3zI51i4lwAqldXyptTBV8SRe/2nQO2ALTu+eYeu1F7miR1URCE+aym3z07cGAFe8xvzt+T3/kyNUfnaCBgBI2AErhIBHnzxwch1Fiw8uLDjyH++Lgs+dl7iQ1qiiId33Elht4uHMj5LPlQW6xBX3NkpEYa/oRT9yS6KNsWrMs7ktX40d+ohn/GRf7UHdnx0iPigL4oNXsCMPLCJu4fUVRn1hD9tcY89fYjYYaM2Iia0F+tkbhRn6VzCPubRDn0jnphaRBz21Bcesb6uY1ulPH2Ujl3p76vLfx6rEQOuwRFb/IBVnD+0S3nt9QTiV1nkQ/EOnYdH9lBNlxkBI2AEjMBFIsBDlV2PL7/8stg/HloffvjhmzKu40Mt75joQagKPOiwf/369Y0ARIh9+umn98Tg+++//+bh/Pnnn9+U6S/ofPzxx2/aI8ahhzhtlh7kioW6MXblx3OOH/HGA5/4WxL+h2LM/vEZY6buO++8cyOkwQB7EjHovTDlqy+cJa7BV/FyTRkc0Q9hCo7YUE7KGMc6tXFxUzH9E/tBEX4UP/dcE0fOp8/RDts8rpQ3JKZz+3CGYFJi7ArDFy9e3GCgMs7UJ7Y4VsmPsSh2YYc/sFTinr7gA7wjzpEbcTg0VuRTZ4s4IeGzETACRsAIvEGABwkPm9IDhZ0GPfypwDV5SvEBRx4PsOgnP1hlE3cveLhp9wgxEsuwL/lQ+/mMbT704CcuHsJDifjpH2cOfOV4hurjP7ePHyWuIz7kY69UijFjji0xiQd24eKuDliKM/zF9qlLmfDmHnyiTamO4hs60w/8cBCb4lMd8sUFZboutZfHFbZ5B09+dY44kgcXccdS7dXsc33ZxVjwSbwxEZfGCLjqGhv6LHvKIibYRR6iz9L13SgplTrPCBgBI2AErhYBhBQPGB46MZUebDEvPuCoFx9a3Edb+c11lM+ZMnzEo+Qj1onXQ7Y8TFtEHA9+bDm45iEtURTbKl2XHvLRLuNDWYy5FCPig3o5qR5igBi1yxTt8FeqKxtEBDFHm1N1VDefiYe6OvJ4og0JKWLWOCi1l8cB/8mI4ii3zT3t0wZHbjva44c2hZ/K8r3yFSf3JX5pD38xMV7II45Ypviibeu1RVwrUrYzAkbACFwpAjxkohgoPdhiXnzAAVl+oEVbQZrrKJ8zZTz08hFthq5L7ckeny0iLj50qYuQi5jIX+lceshHu4wPZTHmUoynRJz84xvREMUO/sjPiXyEH2VgHm1qdbKPfB/7oTLa0EePtCERRzm7rrRVai+Og9bdKtqXv4iBYkFYgY8EXo4336teHK8lfukX7SoxXhCd5NP/WIYNY6mUr/q1s0VcDRnnGwEjYASMwA0CPPziQ6v0YIt50RYH+YEWbQVxrqN8zkNl0a52XWov2hLfUMrxY8tD+JT4k8/SQ15lnEv+Y8yltlpFnGJFICjhL/cZUYWNhE72X6ojf0Pn2A/Z0baEW7ymHFFFHPqigOpwnjIOSu1Hnxn7bJ/vVTfGUuIXvxKaCDjulXKbygd7+q56yh86W8QNoeMyI2AEjMAVIlB6iMSHFg8h7aQAD9fxIRVtKc8PrdKDkQdhqV3qlx6SY2gptRfr53hjGdc5fvIQGVvuxBFDFGbcg1/kgTwl8iWcSoIsY5xt8r38njqXsGfXS+MnxiVf+rg69+UUT6ofz6X2Y3n0iYDM9vledWO9jB02sV68poz+g2cpjcXZIq6EovOMgBEwAleIAN+e4+ABxcdaPPQ5uOcbokrKi+VcK+kbf+TxrdP4wMMmP9TIw1ZfpOA6Phj1zUkecPKpBzzfKMR2KNEeNvHAjxJ9I0b55x7/PNRJXHOoPtfYgxUJX8RRS9SL9eVH9ggaYYwvbKNAJC7q5ARH2FIHG/BTvyijTiyL8coWO/opnrCnbb4dLExol3zVwa+wod5QytjjI/ZF8WcftE1ZTOSNTaWxFn3wrV+w42Dc8s1V+iqRWasfY+GbvMKKulxH/tRnfcuacjBgzNCuMFBd8lqTRVwrUrYzAkbACFwRAtrVYVektEOm3TceQHrgRXj0cIoPM5XXHlJ8nKSPnrINZfqILfpETJTiU1uc8ZWPHHNsmwcs90r4j/VjGTbsrEjUqE4801asr+tog0/aLeFNWY5XdSNPOS7agR9wy2XkIeAidsKXM4lYOJRUjtgg4RMfQ0l91Tnb0n4JO3zH2KindrOPoXvaHUrgCkb0kziEmfCq1c+xECs+Mqa0jS+Vcc0h4UY5damHTe7zUOyUWcSdQsjlRsAIGAEjYAQqCPDQ5YF8jQnRkcXMNeKwZZ8t4rZE320bASNgBIzArhFgp2bs7smuOxyCR8Q5bYuARdy2+Lt1I2AEjIARMAJGwAhMQsAibhJsrmQEjIARMAJGwAgYgW0RsIjbFn+3bgSMgBEwAkbACBiBSQhYxE2CzZWMgBEwAkbACBgBI7AtAhZx2+Lv1o2AETACRsAIGAEjMAkBi7hJsLmSETACRsAIGAEjYAS2RcAiblv83boRMAJGwAgYASNgBCYhYBE3CTZXMgJGwAgYASNgBIzAtghYxG2Lv1s3AkbACBgBI2AEjMAkBCziJsHmSkbACBgBI2AEjIAR2BYBi7ht8XfrRsAIGAEjYASMgBGYhIBF3CTYXMkIGAEjYASMgBEwAtsiYBG3Lf5u3QgYASNgBIyAETACkxCwiJsEmysZASNgBIyAETACRmBbBCzitsXfrRsBI2AEjIARMAJGYBICFnGTYHMlI2AEjIARMAJGwAhsi4BF3Lb4u3UjYASMgBEwAkbACExCwCJuEmyuZASMgBEwAkbACBiBbRGwiNsWf7duBIyAETACRsAIGIFJCPz/BSQuj27j29IAAAAASUVORK5CYII=)
The spike in inflation in 2021 and 2022 surprised everyone, leading to large forecast errors. We are reproducing here a graph coming from a presentation by Philip Lane on the ECB’s forecast errors for euro area inflation[1]. The maximum error of 2.4 points was made in Q2 2022: it corresponds to the difference between the actual headline inflation print for that quarter (8% year-on-year) and the ECB’s March 2022 forecast for Q2 2022 (5.6% y/y). The ECB then continued to underestimate inflation, but less and less so, before overestimating it in Q1 and Q4 2023 for the headline measure (-1.1 and -0.6 points respectively) and in Q3 and Q4 2023 for the core measure (-0.1 and -0.4 points respectively).
It should also be noted that the forecast error is much larger on the headline measure than on core inflation. This illustrates the role played by energy and commodity prices in the rising and falling phases of inflation, as IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas recalls in his blog post accompanying the latest World Economic Outlook (January 2024) [2]. The IMF’s analysis also shows the role and effectiveness of monetary tightening, through anchoring inflation expectations, in containing rising prices.
For the coming quarters, the question is how quickly inflation will return to the 2% target. Our forecasts differ from those of the ECB: we expect a faster return to the target, as soon as Q2, while the ECB expects it for 2025. Verdict in a few months to find out which forecast will have overestimated or underestimated the trajectory of inflation.