Central Europe has registered a better growth performance in Q1 (-1% q/q), compared to -3.3% in the European Union. In Hungary, Romania and Bulgaria economic growth had even remained positive during this period. However, this Q1 growth performance is rather the consequence of a late impact of the Covid-19 than a byproduct of a lower impact. Manufacturing production figures show that the economic downturn has gathered pace in Central Europe in March. This downturn is now stronger in Hungary, Romania and Slovakia than in European Union’s average. Exports should be one of the main drivers of the contagion towards Central Europe
The last Bank of England (BoE) Monetary Policy Committee of May 7, 2020 leaves UK monetary policy unchanged, including the target outstanding of its asset purchase program, despite the vote of two of the members of the Committee in favor of an increase of GBP 100 bn. Inaugurated in 2009 with an initial outstanding of GBP 200 bn, the program has been extended several times. The latest increase, decided on March 19, brought the target outstanding to GBP 645 billion (including 20 bn in investment-grade corporate bonds), against GBP 445 billion (including GBP 10 bn in investment-grade corporate bonds) previously
The sharp rise in household inflation expectations is one of the striking results of the April 2020 INSEE consumer confidence survey. This increase goes the opposite way of the fall in the balance of opinion on price trends over the past 12 months as well as in actual inflation. This large divergence is noteworthy in view of the usual relative proximity of the three indicators. This rise in expected inflation echoes the French people’s feeling, conveyed in the media, that significant price increases have occurred since the lockdown. This is probably the consequence of the composition effect of consumption baskets and not the warning sign of a widespread and substantial pick-up in prices in the making
Since March 2020, the deterioration in the global economic environment has stopped the appreciation of the Egyptian pound. In 2019, the pound appreciated by 12% against the USD with the rise in current account receipts and sustained portfolio inflows. Since March, massive portfolio outflows have entailed the pound’s moderate 1.2% depreciation and a decline in the official foreign reserves of the Central Bank (CBE) by 11%. In the short term, current account revenues should weather the drop in Suez Canal and tourism revenues (20% of current account receipts in total). The CBE’s fx liquidity (8 months of imports of goods and services including tier-2 reserves) and the IMF financial support should allow the CBE to ease pressure on the pound in order to limit imported inflation
The measures taken by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) since 15 March have already had a major impact on the balance sheets of commercial banks resident in the United States*. Their reserves held at the Central Bank have considerably increased following their role as intermediaries for the Fed’s securities purchases, emergency loans and liquidity swaps. As in 2008-2014, the Fed’s quantitative easing policy has also created a disconnect between growth in loans and growth in deposits on banks’ balance sheets. Since most of the Fed’s securities purchases have been from non-bank agents, customer deposits have grown more quickly than loans
Over the past decennia, hospital capacity has been gradually reduced in most OECD countries, as major health care innovations have resulted in a gradual shift towards more extra-muros care. Nevertheless, countries with the oldest populations such as Japan and Germany have maintained a large hospital capacity. In Germany, the number of acute beds is two to three times larger than in some other major countries such as France, the UK, and Italy. In that respect, South Korea is an outlier by combining a large hospital capacity with a relatively young population. In the current Covid-19 outbreak, having a large hospital capacity is a clear advantage. Fortunately, some countries have been able to increase their capacity of intensive care beds rapidly
Tourism is the main transmission channel of the Covid-19 pandemic to the Moroccan economy. Activity has been at a standstill since March and will remain so until May, at least. The losses will be significant in a sector that contributes to more than 8% of GDP, which is the highest level in the region. On a more positive note, two-thirds of the tourist season comes from June onwards, which might coincide with the easing of restrictions on travel in some countries even if the recovery of the activity would be gradual. The slump in tourism activity will weigh on growth and external accounts. The sector accounts for 15% of current account receipts. However, external stability does not look under threat. Forex reserves are comfortable and external debt is moderate
Following the example of the ECB for the significant institutions[1], the Bank of Italy has decided to recommend to banks under its direct supervision (the less significant institutions) not to distribute or commit distributing dividends at least until 1 October 2020[2]. Moreover, share buy-backs will have to be restricted and less significant institutions in Italy will have to adopt "prudent and farsighted" variable-remuneration policies. The five largest Italian banking groups, which account for almost half of the total assets of the domestic banking system, are thus likely to mobilize (in addition to the benefits that were not intended to be distributed) EUR 4.8 billion of additional common equity Tier 1 in 2019[3], representing 4.1% of its current outstanding amount (EUR 116
The PMI indices published this week give an early insight into the scale of the economic shock from Covid-19. The composite indices for Japan (35.8), Germany (37.2), France (30.2), the UK (37.1) and the US (40.5) all slumped in March. The euro zone composite PMI was the lowest ever recorded at 31.4. The deterioration was particularly marked for the sub-indices relating to employment and orders for goods and services. Figures for April, whilst remaining at historically low levels, are expected to show increasing divergence between the regions. In East Asia, internal demand should start to pick up, as activity starts to normalise in China. Conversely, the epidemic is spreading more rapidly in the US, India and Africa; meanwhile, many European countries remain in lock-down.
The most recent PMIs announced the shock earlier this month: industrial production fell strongly in January-February 2020, declining by 13.5% year-on-year. China also registered a very severe contraction in total exports (-18% y/y), fixed-asset investment (-24.5%) and volumes of retail sales (-23.7%). Such a collapse in economic activity is an unprecedented situation in China, which is expected to record a contraction in real GDP in Q1 2020. Activity has been recovering gradually in recent days, and a rebound in real GDP growth is expected in Q2 2020, notably supported by the authorities’ stimulus policy measures
Weekly charts highlighting points of interest in the world economy
