Largely spared by the Covid-19 pandemic, Norway reported one of the mildest recessions in Europe in 2020 (-2.5%). The economy is poised for a vigorous recovery in the second half, driven by the acceleration of global trade and the rebound in household consumption. In the light of these favourable prospects, and concerned about the acceleration in house prices, Norges Bank intends to begin raising its key rate gradually as of September, even though core inflation is low.
The double whammy of Brexit and the health crisis has hit the economy hard. In 2020, GDP contracted by 9.8%, the weakest performance by a G7 country and the UK’s worst year since 1920. In the first quarter of 2021, GDP fell by a further 1.5%, due to lockdown measures introduced to tackle the second wave of the epidemic and despite considerable fiscal support
The November 2020 announcement that monetary policy would move in a new direction had tamed financial tensions. However, as the Central Bank Governor was removed in March 2021, uncertainty came back. Exchange rate depreciation pressures have reappeared and interest rates and risk premiums have risen. Growth support will be the top policy priority, but at the price of maintaining significant macroeconomic imbalances. Credit risk is not reflected into the non-performing loan ratio but the forbearance period which is allowing the postponement of their reporting will end at mid-2021. The observed corporate investment recovery is welcomed, as a precondition to improve potential growth, but other conditions such as productivity growth are still missing.
Gambling has risks, but sometimes you win big. No stranger to risky gambles (Brexit, herd immunity to Covid-19…) the UK Prime Minister, Boris Johnson, can now claim that one of his wagers – betting early and big on vaccines – has allowed his country to be amongst the first to see the light at the end of the tunnel. Having been in strict lockdown since the beginning of the year, and whilst also suffering from a collapse in trade with the European Union, the economy now seems to have touched bottom; economic surveys and mobility reports promise better days ahead. Both fiscal and monetary policy will help support the recovery, before thoughts move to addressing the deficit, with the first turn of the screw expected in 2023.
Having been hit particularly hard by Covid-19 (more than 126,000 Britons have died so far), the UK is now one of the countries vaccinating most rapidly. With 31 million doses administered since the beginning of the year, coverage of the population has reached 46%...
Before the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic, the United Kingdom had already begun to come out of the “age of austerity”, to borrow a phrase from former Prime Minister David Cameron. The massive intervention of UK authorities to support the economy through the Covid-19 sanitary and economic crises has significantly strengthened this trend. The government deficit ran at almost 20% of GDP in 2020, and the ratio of government debt to GDP increased by twenty percentage points to nearly 100%. Once the crisis is over, some adjustments will be needed. That said, the Treasury’s eagerness to bring public finances back under control rapidly could be counterproductive if it stifled the economic recovery
Unlike major European Union (EU) countries, UK still has not released its GDP for the fourth quarter of 2020. Nevertheless, the monthly indicator of the Office for National Statistics (ONS) gives a foretaste of how the economy fared during this period. In November, GDP contracted for the first time since April, falling by 2.6% as a second lockdown was imposed in England. This drop is due to the services sector, as the index for the production sector stagnated and the one for the construction sector increased...
In third-quarter 2020, Turkish GDP had already returned to pre-Covid levels. Turkey’s economic recovery can be attributed to massive policy support – both fiscal and monetary –, which also involves risks. Inflation is significantly above 10%, and unlike many other emerging countries, the current account swung into a deficit again, which triggered a sharp depreciation in the Turkish lira. Faced with rising tensions, President Erdogan voiced to change the direction of economic policy. It should now have two pillars: a more rigorous policy mix, with a monetary policy that targets a lower inflation rate and greater attractiveness for non-resident investors
Norway was not hit as hard by the Covid-19 pandemic as most its European neighbours. Moreover, the economy has been able to count on considerable support from the fiscal and monetary authorities. In its draft budget for 2021, presented in October, the government has pledged to maintain an expansionist policy, even if spending will logically not be as high as in 2020. What’s more, faced with an upturn in Covid-19 cases and tighter restriction measures, the central bank has adopted a more conciliatory tone.
Since late spring, Turkey has enjoyed a rapid, buoyant recovery. This is rather typical for an economy regularly hit by external shocks that are magnified by capital outflows. Turkey has managed to bounce back yet again thanks to strong economic policy support. The bad news is that it is accumulating several imbalances, including another significant current account deficit and a sharp increase in credit growth, which is accelerating faster than during previous recovery phases. These two factors, which put downside pressure on the lira while driving up inflation, signal a deterioration in the quality of growth and imply higher debt ratios.
Not only was Norway affected by the Covid-19 pandemic, but the country also had to face a big fall in the price of its main export: oil. Nevertheless, these two shocks have been cushioned by the structure of the Norwegian economy and the authorities’ fiscal and monetary response. The country’s economy is now one of the best positioned to return to its pre-pandemic levels. Indeed, it is already showing signs of improvement.
Our Pulse for Turkey shows good resilience of the economy until February/March. So far, the government has not imposed a generalized lockdown therefore the supply shock is less severe than for other European economies. Besides, the Central Bank has lowered its policy rate by 200 basis points since mid-March and one third of the support program announced by the government (2.3% of GDP) has been already spent at mid-March. We expect recession to be limited to -2% for 2020 as a whole.
The Turkish economy is facing problems of a sort it has dealt with in the past: a global crisis, that will trigger a sharp fall in exports, coupled with a contraction of external financing. Unlike in 2018, Turkey’s economy does not appear to be overheating, whilst the fall in oil prices and the emergence of a current account surplus are two factors that will reduce the risk. That said, the relatively weak levels of currency reserves, the high level of external debt and the recent rise in non-performing loans are all significant risk factors. In front of the current shock, the economic policy response will have to address foreign currency liquidity needs properly in a context of dwindling capital flows.
