Based in Paris, BNP Paribas' Economic Research Department is composed of economists and statisticians:
« The Economic Research department’s mission is to cater to the economic research needs of the clients, business lines and functions of BNP Paribas. Our team of economists and statisticians covers a large number of advanced, developing and emerging countries, the real economy, financial markets and banking. As we foster the sharing of our research output with anyone who is interested in the economic situation or who needs insight into specific economic issues, this website presents our analysis, videos and podcasts. »
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Strong household consumption and the return of tourists should help economic growth to accelerate over the next few quarters. The lack of competitiveness of the export sector and the effects of El Niño are the key risks to growth and exports. In addition, the political situation remains tense and the government coalition looks fragile. Budgetary slippage may occur and the Bank of Thailand is expected to pause its monetary easing.
Mexico’s economic activity is expected to slow in the next few quarters under the combined effect of the slowdown in the US economy and the continuation of high interest rates. Beyond 2024, growth could be supported by a new driver, nearshoring, the effects of which are starting to be seen in export and investment data [...]
Gabriel Boric intends to exceed the goals set up to that point, on a country level, by achieving carbon neutrality before 2050, and on an international level, by developing lithium and green hydrogen production and export capacities.
Chile seems to have made more progress with the energy transition than most Latin American countries. The combination of a favourable geography, significant resources, the aspirations of public opinion and political will has favoured implementation of a number of measures for almost 25 years [...]
On 22 June, the Mexican Central Bank maintained its main policy rate at 11.25% for the second time in a row. The Governing Board’s decision was unanimous and largely anticipated. In its press release, the Board stated that the pause should continue over the coming months: the downward trend in inflation seems to be confirmed, but the outlook remains «complex and uncertain».
On May 14th, legislative elections were held in Thailand to renew the 500 members of the House of Representatives. The "democratic" parties have presumably won more than 300 seats. The two main opposition parties, Pheu Thai and Move Forward, have won more than 290 seats. The opposition parties are discussing to recommend one nominee for the position of Prime Minister.
Korean economic growth lagged behind in Q4 2022, and the slowdown is expected to continue in 2023. Exports will suffer from slowing global demand, while domestic demand will be penalised by rising interest rates and persistent inflation. The risks of financial instability remain limited, but have increased in recent months. Household debt is high at almost 110% of GDP, and households are very exposed to rising interest rates [...]
Economic growth should slow significantly in 2023. The relative resilience of private consumption will not be enough to offset the slowdown in external demand, particularly from the US. In addition, the investment outlook remains limited. In the medium term, the Mexican economy could benefit from the relocation of American companies, a trend recently accelerated by the disruption of value chains linked to the pandemic and trade tensions between China and the United States [...]
The political crisis worsened in Peru over the last two months. In the very short term, political instability should continue, and weigh on the economic outlook.
The government of the Philippines maintained health restrictions linked to the pandemic for longer than the average period in emerging countries, with some regions still under lockdown until April 2022. The rebound in activity is not yet finished, and the strength of consumer spending, still supported by remittances, should help to offset the effects of higher inflation and the slowdown in global growth. Economic growth is expected to slow in 2023, but should remain solid [...]
Chile is unlikely to escape a recession in 2023. The slowdown in global demand will weigh on exports, while domestic demand continues to be eroded by high inflation and interest rates due to restrictive monetary policy [...]
Gabriel Boric, the candidate of the very broad left-wing coalition, won the second round of the presidential election last December. He took office in mid-March, and is already facing numerous challenges. His general policy speech at the beginning of June, and then the tax reforms he brought forward at the end of June, have confirmed his intention to implement economic and social policies which differ from those of previous governments [...]
The recovery is continuing in Thailand. The rebound in private consumption and the gradual return of tourists should help, at least in the short term, to compensate for the slowdown in exports. However, the risks to growth remain on the downside, due to rising inflation, monetary tightening, the weakness in global demand and the absence of Chinese tourists. In the run-up to the elections in May 2023 political tensions could increase again [...]
The economic dynamism seen in the first half of 2022 is waning. The rebound in private consumption is being held back by rising inflationary pressures, while exports are weakening due to slowing growth in the United States and global demand. Structural weaknesses in the economy (low investment, lack of infrastructure) are also limiting the growth recovery. Moreover, a deterioration in public finances is increasingly likely in the medium term [...]
In Chile, a large majority of voters (nearly 62%, with an exceptional voter turnout) rejected the draft new constitution in the referendum held on 4 September. The draft, which contains almost 400 articles, did not propose a profound reform of the Chilean economic model; the Central Bank had to remain independent, while property and labour rights were not called into question [...]
Korea’s solid macroeconomic fundamentals have made it one of the countries that has best withstood the COVID-19 pandemic. Economic growth prospects remain relatively positive. The new government, in office since May, spelled out its intention to continue the reforms begun during the previous administration, and, in particular, aims to increase research and development expenditure [...]
Peruvian GDP returned to its pre-crisis level thanks to the strong upturn in activity recorded in 2021. However, the country’s capacity to rebound further is limited and short-to-medium-term growth prospects are moderate. Firstly, inflation pressures are weighing on private consumption and disruptions in the value chains are hampering the export sector. Secondly, the continuing political crisis is dampening the investment outlook [...]
After a rebound over 13%, one of the highest growth rates in the region, we should see a major slowdown in Peru in the next two years. On one hand, inflationary pressures, social movements and the gradual withdrawal of support measures taken by the authorities during the pandemic will weigh on domestic demand.
The direct consequences of the war in Ukraine on the Mexican economy should remain limited, because trade links are almost non-existent. However, indirect consequences could have a significant impact on an economy that has already been weakened by the Covid-19 crisis. Higher commodity prices will increase inflation pressure and worsen the current account deficit in Mexico, which has been a net importer of energy since 2015 [...]
Gabriel Boric, candidate of a vast left-wing coalition, won the second round of the Chilean presidential elections, last December. He will take office in March and his government will have a full agenda. Regarding economy, growth has slowed down since 2015.
Thailand’s economic growth prospects over the short and medium term are limited. Private consumption and the tourist sector, the main engines of growth, will remain weak for some time. In tourism in particular, it is highly unlikely that the activity levels of 2019 will return before 2024. Moreover, the structural weaknesses of the economy (lack of investment and infrastructure) have been worsened by the pandemic and will hold back the recovery, particularly in exports [...]
Gabriel Boric won the second-round presidential election in December. He will take up his post in mid-March and will face many challenges during his term. The new government will have to deal with a fragmented legislative assembly and high levels of popular expectation. Economic growth is likely to slow as exceptional support measures are gradually withdrawn. Although vaccination levels are high, activity could be weakened by new waves of infection and the accompanying restrictions [...]
Gabriel Boric, the candidate heading up the very broad left-wing coalition, won the second round of voting in Chile’s presidential election on 19 December, beating J. Kast, the far-right candidate. While the country’s economic fundamentals have held up relatively well over the past two years, the incoming administration (taking office in March) will have to deal with a number of very thorny issues [...]
The third wave of the Covid-19 pandemic is unlikely to jeopardise the dynamic momentum of South Korea’s economic recovery. Solid fundamentals, diversified exports and massive fiscal and monetary support should help limit the impact of the crisis on the country’s medium and long term growth prospects. In contrast, an ageing population continues to erode the country’s growth potential and public finances, even though the government has implemented a series of structural reforms [...]
Mexico’s medium-term economic prospects continue to deteriorate. The robust recovery already seems to be running out of steam, while the economy’s structural weaknesses (low investment and competitiveness) have been exacerbated by the Covid-19 crisis and by the government’s lack of fiscal support. Yet economic policy is unlikely to change much over the next two years. Following mid-term elections, the governing coalition managed to maintain a simple majority in the Chamber of Deputies [...]