Based in Paris, BNP Paribas' Economic Research Department is composed of economists and statisticians:
The Economic Research department’s mission is to cater to the economic research needs of the clients, business lines and functions of BNP Paribas. Our team of economists and statisticians covers a large number of advanced, developing and emerging countries, the real economy, financial markets and banking. As we foster the sharing of our research output with anyone who is interested in the economic situation or who needs insight into specific economic issues, this website presents our analysis, videos and podcasts.
+33(0)1 42 98 56 27 christine.peltier@bnpparibas.com
Private consumption has played a greater role in the Chinese economy in recent years, but this growth engine remains fragile. At a time when the export sector is hurt by US protectionist measures and weak global demand, China is seeking other solid sources of growth. Yet private consumption growth is slowing and is likely to be disappointing in the short and medium terms. A catching-up dynamic should continue, supported by urbanization, an ageing population and action of the government, which strives to reduce income inequality, improve housing affordability and further strengthen the social protection system. owever, these structural changes will take time
Vulnerabilities in the Chinese financial sector have increased significantly in the past decade. Given the high level and multiple sources of credit and liquidity risks and the opacity of both shadow banking activities and links between banks and non-bank institutions, containing these vulnerabilities poses a major challenge for the authorities. Measures recently taken to tighten monetary conditions and continued efforts to strengthen financial-sector supervision are positive actions. However, they could also weigh on economic activity, and the government’s resolve to stay the course on slowing the growth of domestic debt should soon be put to the test once again.
