Based in Paris, BNP Paribas' Economic Research Department is composed of economists and statisticians:
The Economic Research department’s mission is to cater to the economic research needs of the clients, business lines and functions of BNP Paribas. Our team of economists and statisticians covers a large number of advanced, developing and emerging countries, the real economy, financial markets and banking. As we foster the sharing of our research output with anyone who is interested in the economic situation or who needs insight into specific economic issues, this website presents our analysis, videos and podcasts.
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After years of underinvestment in its power grid, South Africa is experiencing daily load shedding, the intensity of which has only increased in recent months. Economic activity is severely impacted. The restoration of electricity production capacities will be slow, which will have a significant impact on growth and the trade balance in 2023. Supply-side constraints will keep inflation high, while the unemployment rate is a concern. Under these conditions, the ruling party, the ANC, will be pushed to revise its budgetary consolidation trajectory downwards. Furthermore, the partial transfer of the debt of electricity company Eskom to the government will contribute to a sharp increase in public debt.
On 22 February, the South African National Treasury set out its budget plan ahead of the new fiscal year, which will start on 1 April. After slightly revising its fiscal balance upwards since October 2022, the Treasury now expects a primary surplus starting from the current fiscal year. This performance should gradually improve over the next three years.
