Based in Paris, BNP Paribas' Economic Research Department is composed of economists and statisticians:
The Economic Research department’s mission is to cater to the economic research needs of the clients, business lines and functions of BNP Paribas. Our team of economists and statisticians covers a large number of advanced, developing and emerging countries, the real economy, financial markets and banking. As we foster the sharing of our research output with anyone who is interested in the economic situation or who needs insight into specific economic issues, this website presents our analysis, videos and podcasts.
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The Covid-19 crisis is still generating lively discussions on the future of globalisation of trade and finances, and global value chains. The share of foreign value added embedded in the exports of a country or region[1] is a good indicator of the level of involvement in global value chains. This share increased rapidly from the early 1990s until the global financial crisis of 2008, under the effect of trade liberalisation (cuts in tariffs and proliferation of free trade agreements) and falling transport costs. This increase was particularly significant in Asia, the emergence of China as the factory of the world leading to the imports of more intermediary goods mainly from Europe and North America
World trade tensions and supply chain frictions will continue to be major sources of uncertainty in 2022, given their impact on imports prices, and in turn, consumer prices. Based on simulations, UNCTAD estimates that an increase in maritime freight costs would drive up global import prices by 10.6% by the end of 2023, with a smaller but non-negligible impact on global consumer prices of 1.5%. There is also a risk that shortages of certain key components, notably semiconductors, persist for several more months.
After two solid quarters, Italian GDP growth is expected to slow in Q4 2021. Real GDP rose 2.7% q/q in Q2 2021 and 2.6% q/q in Q3. Yet there was an encouraging catching-up movement through the fall, which led the European Commission to revise strongly upwards its 2021 growth forecast, to 6.2%, from its previous outlook of 4.2% last spring. While a new epidemic wave could weigh on activity in the coming weeks, Italy is currently facing a level of contamination much lower than most other European countries.
Like other economies, Spain is currently facing several headwinds, including labour shortages, supply-chain problems and inflation. The country is now also facing the risk of another upsurge in the pandemic. In mid-November, the number of Covid-19 cases was still holding at a very moderate level, but it now seems to be ticking upward, a movement that is bound to accelerate with the approach of winter. Even so, Spain benefits from a high vaccine coverage ratio (more than 80% of the population is fully covered by the vaccine), meaning that the country can look forward to a less perilous winter than last year.
Employment in Spain continues to pleasantly surprise this autumn. The number of employees affiliated with the social security system increased in October (+102,474), reaching a record level of 19,662,163. Significant numbers of jobs created were recorded in sectors that have partly "benefited" from the health crisis and the structural changes it has caused or amplified (information and communications, health and social care, logistics and transport). The unemployment rate remained high (14.6% in September), as did underemployment (7.4% of the total working population), but the participation rate for 16 to 64-year-olds was at a historically-high level (75.8% in Q3 2021). While the first GDP estimate for Q3 2021 was disappointing overall (+2.0% q/q after an increase of just 1
Although tensions in world trade remain fierce, there were some signs of easing in October. The Baltic Dry Index (BDI), which reflects the cost of maritime transport for dry bulk goods, declined by around 30% after peaking in the first week of October. Nonetheless, the rise in costs since the start of the year remains impressive, nearly a tripling. Looking more closely at October’s figures, we can see that the decline in the BDI was limited solely to very high tonnage container ships, while freight prices continued to rise for smaller vessels.
The substantial rise in energy costs being seen in European economies undeniably represents a headwind to the economic recovery, notably through its negative impact on household spending. In 2015 – the most recent year for which Eurostat data are available – at the aggregate euro zone level direct energy spending represented between 9% and 10% of total household spending, making it the third largest cost item after food and housing. The weight in total consumption of spending on “electricity, gas and other fuels”, which is defined by France Strategy as ‘pre-committed spending’[1], is negatively correlated with the income level of households
Despite more than 80% of the adult Italian population having received a full vaccination schedule, the government has decided to introduce new constraints to keep the Covid-19 epidemic under control. At the economic level, the impact of this decision is likely to be felt most in the labour market, accentuating labour shortages, and particularly in the transport sector, where between 25% and 30% of workers still do not have the health pass, according to estimates from Confreta, the union for the industry.
The sections of our Pulse on industrial production and retail sales deteriorated significantly. This mainly reflects base effects linked to the catch-up in activity in the first half of 2021. In the coming months, household spending could be held back by the rise in energy prices, which shows no sign of slowing down, and possibly also by lengthening delivery times for certain products.
After the disappointing economic growth reported in H1 2021, Spain should record a robust rebound in activity in H2, assuming the health situation does not deteriorate. The inflow of tourists has picked up (but remains historically low) and employment has recovered. Yet inflationary risks are intensifying. With the surge in energy prices, the government was forced to take drastic measures to reduce the energy bill for households, which will weigh on public finances. Faced with a persistently uncertain environment, the government is bound to maintain an expansionist policy when it unveils its 2022 budget this fall, even though the health situation is more favourable for the moment thanks to the high level of vaccinations
Portugal’s vaccination campaign seems to be paying off. It is the country that has vaccinated the most people in Europe – and one of the most advanced in the world – with nearly 85% of the population fully vaccinated at the end of September. The number of Covid-19 cases has fallen sharply after a surge in June-July due to the spread of the Delta variant. Portugal’s economic recovery was slower than in most of the other European countries through Q2 2021, in part because it was hit by a more severe wave of the pandemic last winter. However, employment and housing activity have picked up strongly. As in several European countries, new risks have arisen as the pandemic wanes
In Spain, like in most Western countries, the 2008 crisis caused an unprecedented drop in industrial employment, the pain of which continues to be felt. In fact, there are almost 500,000 fewer manufacturing jobs than in 2008. Some of this decline, however, reflects an increasingly important shift from industrial firms to service offerings, which is not a bad thing. With the Covid-19 crisis and the EUR 69.5 billion Recovery and Resilience Plan (RRP), which will be rolled out over the next five years, strengthening industry in Spain has once again become an important area of focus for the authorities. A quarter of the RRP will therefore be dedicated to this objective
Most indicators confirm that world demand for industrial goods is still going strong, suggesting an accentuation or at least the continuation of the supply-chain problems currently facing many companies. Production pressures are compounded by transport pressures, which were showing no signs of easing in early fall.
The Greek economy is recovering relatively quickly from the Covid shock of 2020, judging by the GDP and employment figures released in early September. Real GDP grew 3.4% q/q in Q2 and was 0.6% higher than pre-Covid levels. Since the beginning of the pandemic, Greece has reported the fourth strongest rebound in activity among the 19 Eurozone member countries. Even though household consumption remained fragile in Q2 (+0.9% q/q) due to health restrictions, investment was once again solid (+4.3% q/q). Employment has also reached levels unseen for the past 10 years. Although these figures are encouraging, they nonetheless fit within a health environment that is still uncertain, with a vaccination rate in the country far below the EU average
Although the pace of growth in industrial production has slowed, our barometer shows significant improvements in exports and retail sales over the last three months (shown in blue) compared to the previous three months (delimited by the dashed line). The second estimate for Q2 GDP, published on 31 August, confirmed a solid recovery (+2.7% q/q), driven in large part by the easing of restrictions and the subsequent increases in consumption.
The Spanish economy has put in a solid performance over the summer, with a marked improvement in the employment data. The number of workers registered with the Social Security system has risen by more than 410,000 over the past three months, and now nearly match the pre-Covid level. The unemployment rate is likely to fall again in Q3 as a result. It already dipped to 14.3% in July, not far from the pre-pandemic low of 13.7%. Given that a significant share of the new hires were seasonal contracts, we will have to wait for this autumn’s employment figures to get a more accurate picture of the strength of the recovery.
Although the momentum remains strong, world trade volumes could begin to taper off this summer, judging by the results of recent opinion surveys. The global PMI index declined 2 points to 56.6 in June, pulled down by the drop in the manufacturing “new export orders” component.
Once again, Spain has become an epicentre of the Covid-19 pandemic in Europe after new cases of the Delta variant spiked, especially in Catalonia. The number of new contaminations could rapidly surpass the peaks reached during previous waves of the pandemic. The days and weeks ahead will tell whether the vaccination campaign is paying off – more than 50% of the population is now fully vaccinated (2 doses) – and whether the authorities can limit the reintroduction of health measures that restrict economic activity.
Just when the lights seemed to be turning green on the health front, the spread of the Delta variant in Spain, as elsewhere in Europe, is a cause of concern. The risks remain currently under control and economic activity should record a significant upturn this summer. The easing of travel restrictions and the introduction of the European health pass since 25 June should allow the Spanish tourist industry to lift itself back up, which would have positive knock-on effects on consumption and employment. Even so, and despite the fact that growth is expected to bounce back strongly, to 6.0% in 2021, the Covid-19 will continue to leave its mark on Spain’s public finances
The Greek economy is proving resilient, with the recovery through to Q1 2021 being faster than in most other Eurozone members. This has been driven primarily by the very significant increase in goods exports. The spread of the Delta variant in Europe represents a threat to the recovery in the tourism sector, which is essential to bolster growth and employment over the coming months. Pending this, the labour market shows continued fragility. The unemployment rate climbed to 16.3% in Q1, whilst the number of inactive workers jumped, partly due to the effect of rising numbers of workers on temporary unemployment
The Pulse for Italy continues to improve reflecting both a genuine economic rebound and positive base effects arising from the drop-off in activity in H1 2020. Base effects were especially strong in industrial production and retail sales, which in April were still below the year-end 2019 levels.
Despite a sharp increase in May (+1.98%), eurozone inflation continues to be driven by two components of the consumer price index (CPI) that are linked to energy prices. “Operation of personal transport equipment” was by far the biggest contributor to the rise in the CPI with a contribution of 0.87 percentage points (pp), or nearly half of headline inflation. This reflects the increase in pump prices. It is followed by “Electricity, natural gas and other fuels”, which contributed 0.43 pp to Eurozone headline inflation
Indicators related to international trade remain very strong. Even though the most recent CPB figures are for March, world trade in volumes (both exports and imports) increased 2.2% m/m, pushing the quarterly rise to 3.5% in Q1 2021. This represents a solid growth that was almost identical to that recorded in the previous quarter.
The latest economic figures from Spain have shown so far a substantial gap between the very positive signals from opinion surveys and the hard data, particularly on consumption, where a significant rebound has yet to materialise.
The Italian economy is continuing to improve, as shown in the latest gains in our Pulse. Industrial activity, which had already enjoyed a significant upturn over the winter, strengthened further this spring: the manufacturing PMI reached 60.7 in April, the best reading on record.
