Based in Paris, BNP Paribas' Economic Research Department is composed of economists and statisticians:
The Economic Research department’s mission is to cater to the economic research needs of the clients, business lines and functions of BNP Paribas. Our team of economists and statisticians covers a large number of advanced, developing and emerging countries, the real economy, financial markets and banking. As we foster the sharing of our research output with anyone who is interested in the economic situation or who needs insight into specific economic issues, this website presents our analysis, videos and podcasts.
+ 33 1 55 77 71 89 guillaume.a.derrien@bnpparibas.com
After proving resilient, the PMI surveys for the services sector are deteriorating more significantly. The indicator lost 3 points in August to 47.9, the lowest level seen since February 2021. In particular, the sub-indices relating to employment and new businesses creation fell significantly.
The slowdown in activity in the second half of 2023 should be contained: real GDP growth would only decline, from +0.4% q/q in Q2 2023 to +0.3% q/q in Q3, and +0.2% q/q in Q4. The deterioration in the PMI surveys is continuing in both the manufacturing sector and the services sector.
Growth in Q2 2023 was a positive surprise, with an increase in real GDP of 0.2% q/q, driven by corporate investment, and in particular by spending on transport equipment. Nevertheless, signs of deterioration in activity are multiplying and extending to all sectors.
Japanese economic surveys remain positive overall, despite contrasting results for August: the composite PMI was up 0.4 points to 52.6, while the Economy Watchers Survey fell by 0.8 points, returning to its June level of 53.6.
The rise in interest rates and the slowdown in activity in the eurozone are still not leading to a turnaround on the job creation front in Spain, quite the contrary.
After several months of improvement, global supply-chain disruptions appear to have bottomed out, and some signs of deterioration are emerging again. The synthetic indicator of the Federal Reserve of New York (FRNY; chart 3), which measures these tensions, rose slightly in June, for the first time in 2023, as did the PMI delivery times index, which is part of the FRNY aggregate indicator.
Economic activity in the eurozone is showing clearer signs of weakening, and our Nowcast now foresees a stagnation in real GDP in the second quarter of 2023. Retail sales were stable during the first two months of Q2. Survey data also offers little reassurance and seems to indicate a possible relapse in activity in Q3 which we currently estimate at -0.1% q/q: the composite PMI index deteriorated significantly in June, falling below the threshold of 50, to 49.9. The manufacturing sector index fell further into contraction and is now at levels comparable to those seen during 2020, in the midst of the pandemic.
Real GDP growth should halve in the second quarter compared to the previous quarter, at 0.3% q/q, before a further slowdown in Q3. Industrial production (down 0.5% over the first two months of Q2) and retail sales (slightly up by 0.1%) demonstrate the fragility of activity in the country. The composite PMI for new export orders also continued to deteriorate in June (-4.4 points to 43.3).
Economic activity in Spain remains dynamic. The fall in inflation, combined with employment gains this year, constitutes significant support for activity, which will counteract the increase in mortgage payments faced by some households. We now anticipate stable and moderate growth in activity at 0.4% q/q for the second and third quarters of this year. Retail sales in volume terms recovered in April (+4.1% m/m) before edging back down the following month (-0.4% m/m). Tourism activity in the spring suggests a summer season that will be, if not exceptional, at least as successful as 2019, which has been a record year to date: in May 2023, several indicators (number of foreign tourists entering the country, hotel stays) were above the levels recorded in the same period in 2019.
The UK economy contracted in May (-0.1% m/m) according to the ONS, after growth of 0.2% m/m in April. The services sector stagnated, while industrial production and construction fell by 0.6% and 0.2% m/m respectively. According to the June PMI survey, activity increased in the services sector, but decreased in the manufacturing sector. While the extra bank holiday for King Charles III’s coronation probably contributed to the downturn in activity in May, the UK economy remains in a more extended slowdown phase. The economy stagnated indeed on average over 3 months in May.
The Japanese economy continued its post-pandemic recovery in May and June, although this remains fragile. According to the final estimate for May, industrial production contracted by 2.2% m/m but increased by 4.2% year-on-year. At the same time, activity in the tertiary sector grew by 1.2% m/m and 1.8% y/y. The latest PMI survey also indicates that economic activity expanded in June (composite index in expansion at 52). Nevertheless, a distinction must be made between the manufacturing sector index, which fell back into the contraction zone (49.8), and the services index, which continued to grow (54), although at a slower pace than in May.
After inflation, would it be the turn of wages to change gear in Japan? The report published by the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare on July 7th shows indeed a notable increase in (scheduled) base wages in May, up 1.0% m/m, the largest monthly increase since the start of current statistics in 1990.
Shelter is the main item in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the United States, accounting for 34.4% of the total basket. Its growth has accelerated sharply since 2021 and the post-pandemic economic recovery: the y/y rate strengthened from 1.5% in February 2021 to a peak of 8.2% in March 2023 and has decreased very slightly since, down to 8.0% in May. The large contribution of the shelter component keeps US inflation high. Excluding this component, the core inflation reading for May dropped from 5.3% to 3.4%. Moreover, the current gap between the standard core measure – i.e. excluding energy and food – and the core measure that also excludes shelter has been the widest since the early 1980s
The labour market report published by the Spanish Employment Agency (SEPE) on July 4th surprised favourably again. The number of unemployed workers dropped by 1.8% m/m (-50,268) to its lowest level since September 2008.
Inflation in Japan continues to rise, spreading to all the items in the consumer price index. Inflation expectations remain anchored around the 2% target and price increases should remain at this level in the medium term. We expect the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to raise the 10-year sovereign rate ceiling to 1% in July, before ending its yield curve control policy by the end of 2024. Real GDP grew by 0.7% q/q in Q1 (+2.7% in annualised terms), mainly supported by household consumption and non-residential investment. The return of foreign tourists (+71% q/q in Q1) also enabled activity to rebound after two disappointing quarters. Although slowing, growth should continue in Q2 (+0.5% q/q) and throughout the second half of the year, reaching 1.1% in 2023.
The eurozone entered a technical recession in Q1 2023, with Eurostat having revised lower its estimate of quarterly GDP growth for Q1 from +0.1% to -0.1%, i.e. the same pace of contraction as in Q4 2022. These results do not profoundly change our assessment for 2023: weak or slightly negative economic activity, quarter-on-quarter, although growth for 2023 as a whole should be more positive thanks to the favourable carry-over growth effect. Our current forecasts are based on a terminal refinancing rate of 4.5%, which would be reached at the monetary policy meeting on 14 September. Nevertheless, the scenario of harsher tightening cannot be completely ruled out, given the ongoing inflationary momentum and still high inflation generalisation indices.
The drop in inflation in Spain has provided no respite for the coalition in power. The Socialist Party’s losses in the regional and local elections on 28 May to the People’s Party, led Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez to announce a snap general election on 23 July, five months before the originally scheduled date. Despite a still dynamic labour market, the drop in purchasing power and the housing crisis are penalising the party in power, which has fallen even further behind in the polls this spring. The property market is showing signs of a limited correction for the time being, but the continuation of monetary tightening and the resulting hike in lending rates are likely to accentuate this downturn.
Global export volumes fell sharply in April, a fairly logical correction after the strong growth in the previous month, linked in particular to the catch-up effects subsequent to the end of the lockdown in China.
The Italian economy surprised positively in the first quarter of 2023, with real GDP growing by 0.6% q/q. However, we expect this good performance to be followed by a slowdown in the second quarter and then a one-off contraction in the third quarter.
Despite the support of tourism, which has been at levels close to those of 2019 since the beginning of the year, the effects of the rise in interest rates and the drop in household purchasing power on the Spanish economy should worsen over the course of the year.
Real GDP growth rose in the last two quarters in Japan, but is still slightly below 2019 levels. However, a slowdown in activity is expected from Q2 and until the end of 2023.
The pace of inflation in the United Kingdom remains a cause for concern, while in Japan, market expectations are being cautiously adjusted to the new inflationary environment. Core inflation in the United States remained high in April, but some alternative indicators improved somewhat. In the eurozone, several services sectors are recording a faster rate of inflation, in some cases due to wage increases.
The reopening of the Chinese economy at the end of last year has finally had its effects with a few months’ delay. Exports from China jumped 19.8% m/m in March, according to preliminary figures released by the CPB.
The preliminary estimate of Italian economic growth in the first quarter was a positive surprise, with real GDP rebounding by 0.5% q/q. However, we anticipate a slowdown in activity in Q2, before a contraction in Q3. At 0.9% in 2023, Italian GDP growth would still be above that of the eurozone as a whole.
Spanish growth strengthened slightly in Q1 2023, to +0.5% q/q, according to preliminary figures from INE. However, this acceleration, supported by investment and external demand, did not allow real GDP to cross the pre-Covid threshold. It still showed a small deficit of 0.2% compared to Q4 2019.
