The primary budget balance has gradually recovered post-COVID, mainly supported by improved growth, but remains high compared to the rest of Europe.
Japan's primary deficit is expected to narrow in 2025 but is likely to increase again to around 2% of GDP in the coming years due to upward pressure on public spending.
The Eurozone labour market remains dynamic. The unemployment rate, at 6.3% in September, remains close to historic lows, while net job creation, although slowing in 2025, continued in Q3 (+0.1% q/q). According to Eurostat, the Eurozone has created almost seven million additional jobs since the end of 2019.
There has been remarkably limited interest in Europe at recent international economic and financial gatherings, as if “Europe’s moment”, as ECB President Lagarde dubbed it back in the Spring, has already passed in the eyes of many. Meanwhile, European media outlets have been indulging in negative narratives about political risks, persistent industrial doldrums, and inability to implement reforms that might preserve Europe’s place in a world increasingly dominated by the US and China. And yet, under the radar, a lot of good things have been happening.
The latest economic news.
Key indicators for major emerging countries and their public debt and vulnerability to external financial conditions.
Today's deficits are tomorrow's taxes. Therefore, it is logical for households to save rather than spend the public transfers they receive, since these are incurred through debt and will eventually need to be repaid.
Against all odds, Argentine President Javier Milei’s party emerged victorious in the 26 October midterm elections, despite suffering an electoral setback less than two months earlier. What was behind this turnaround, given that the economic and social situation has deteriorated significantly since the spring? Will the easing of tensions on the peso and the risk premium be enough to avoid a recession? Will US financial support be enough to avert any risk of default on foreign debt?
The public debt ratio is rising again in the Eurozone, while its equivalent for non-financial companies (NFCs) is decreasing. The October 2025 Fiscal Monitor of the IMF forecasts that the public debt ratio will increase by 5 points of GDP in the euro area by 2030 compared to its 2024 level (87.2% of GDP, compared to 83.6% in 2019). Against this background, the debt of non-financial companies reached its lowest level since Q3 2007 in Q2 2025, at 66.6% of GDP.
Anxious relief, such was the mood in Washington DC last week during the Annual Meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), from official and private sector participants alike. Relief that the global economy, and all its regional parts, are doing much better than expected in the Spring despite the US tariff shock. Anxiety that underneath the recent benign economy and markets, tectonic shifts are underway, still in their early stages and poorly understood.
Low in fat, high in fibre, with a large proportion of fruit and vegetables: in terms of health, the virtues of the Mediterranean diet are well-established, but what about in economic terms? For the past decade, the countries of the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) forming the Mediterranean ‘arc’ (France, Italy, Spain, Greece) have been following a similar diet, aiming to improve their competitiveness. We take a look at this in our Chart of the week.
Modernity sometimes conceals, under new guises, a return to old precepts: a currency backed 100% by the safest assets, bank deposits guaranteed by tangible reserves, the search for unfailing financial stability. Stablecoins (digital tokens backed by highly safe and liquid assets) are part of this logic. However, in our modern economies, banks only keep a small fraction of deposits in reserve with the Central Bank: this is the principle of "fractional reserves" which gives them the ability to create money (the remaining deposits can be allocated to credit). Beyond the intellectual interest that they attract, stablecoins raise a broader question: if their use were to become widespread, would they not risk making it more difficult to finance the economy?
Since the beginning of the year, the resumption of the trade war between the United States and China has led the latter to redirect its exports in record time. On average over April to July, while Chinese exports to the US contracted by 23% year-on-year (yoy) in value terms, those to Africa increased by 34%, far more than those to ASEAN countries (17%) and Europe (7%).
Beyond supply factors (see US Federal debt: the risks of abundance) and demand factors (see A safe haven put to the test), banking regulations have also contributed to weakening the Treasuries market. This is the subject of the third instalment of our EcoInsight series on Treasuries.Since 2023, the US authorities have taken various measures to support the liquidity and stability of the Treasuries market (greater transparency of transactions, increased use of centralised clearing of repurchase agreements, programme to buy back the least traded securities).However, the balance sheet constraints faced by the banks responsible for intermediating this market remain an aggravating factor in times of stress
Since the cessation of most Russian gas supplies, reducing Europe's energy vulnerability, and thus improving its economic security, has been a key issue for European decision-makers. However, recent pressure from the United States on Europe to increase its purchases of US hydrocarbons could raise fears of a new significant dependence on US liquefied natural gas (LNG)..
Despite the announcement of the US-EU trade deal at the end of July, the short-term growth outlook for the Eurozone remains uncertain. This is well illustrated by the fact that professional economists, whose forecasts usually converge towards the end of the year, are currently continuing to disagree to a large extent about this year’s euro area growth.
The French economy is entering a new budgetary cycle that is likely to be as complicated as the previous one. However, the economy appears to be more robust than in 2024. Firstly, the productive sector is in better shape today in several key areas (notably aeronautics and agriculture), which is reflected in the growth figures. Secondly, the shadow of political uncertainty has not undermined the strengths of the French economy: business creation, the labour market, a balanced current account, the transmission of ECB rate cuts to the private sector and the improvement in private investment
What is the impact of the new US tariffs on the customs duties imposed on each country's exports as a whole? Estimates of the "average effective external tariff" show that the shock remains relatively limited for the European Union and the United Kingdom. The framework agreement signed on 27 July between the EU and the US imposes a uniform tariff of 15%, incorporating pre-existing tariffs, and includes a most-favoured-nation (MFN) clause for certain strategic sectors (aeronautics, certain pharmaceutical and chemical products).
Following on from the first part of our EcoInsight series on US Treasuries, which focused on the US administration's budget plans (US federal debt: the risks of abundance), this second part we are examining how president Trumps’ excesses have harmful effects on the demand for federal paper.The profile of US Federal Government creditors has changed significantly over the past 20 years. The appeal of Treasuries for so-called ‘long-term’ investors (i.e. foreign central banks, resident pension funds and insurers) has waned. More ‘short-term’ investors (i.e. leveraged funds), who favour procyclical strategies, are now very active in this market. This shift has contributed to undermining the safe-haven status of Treasuries, which are now more sensitive to periods of stress
Since the beginning of the year, China’s economic growth has proved to be more robust than expected. Exports have withstood US tariff attacks and household consumption has recovered thanks to government stimulus programs. However, large clouds are casting a shadow over the picture and are likely to slow growth in the second half of the year. On the one hand, trade tensions with the United States remain high and the tech war continues, even though Beijing and Washington have agreed to extend their truce until November. On the other hand, internal structural problems remain (real estate crisis, labour market fragility, low confidence in the private sector, deflation). Despite this gloomy backdrop, economic policy easing remains cautious
Despite robust growth between April and June 2025 (probably overestimated), the government is stepping up measures to support the Indian economy. The “Goods and Services Tax Council”, which is due to meet on 3 and 4 September, is expected to approve a cut in VAT rates. This measure would counteract the effects of the increase in US tariffs without weakening the central government's finances.
After a long decline of real long-term interest rates in advanced economies, the direction has changed in recent years. The prospect of rising private- and public-sector financing needs is raising concern that this movement is not over. Empirical research shows that the long-run dynamics of long-term interest rates are predominantly driven by economic growth, demographic factors (life expectancy and working-age population growth) and financing needs (public debt and pensions). The first two factors are expected to continue exerting downward pressure, whereas upward pressure should come from the huge financing needs. Empirical estimates of the relationship between long-term interest rates and expected borrowing requirements point towards an impact that should be rather limited, all in all
Broadly speaking, the economic outlook for the global economy at the beginning of September remains largely unchanged from that at the end of July: namely, an economy that, overall, continues to withstand the double blow of US tariffs and uncertainty. Our current scenario expects an average annual growth of 1.6% in the United States in 2025, followed by 1.5% in 2026 and 1.3% in the Eurozone for both years (after 2.8% and 0.8% respectively in 2024). So, while the pace of US growth is expected to remain higher than that of the Eurozone, the outlook is for a slowdown across the Atlantic. On the Eurozone side, however, signs of recovery, albeit tentative, tend to predominate, to the point where the Fed is ready to resume its rate cuts and the ECB is ready to halt them
In his much-awaited speech at the annual Jackson Hole central bankers’ symposium, his last as Chair of the Federal Reserve (Fed), Jerome Powell delivered a dovish surprise by opening the door wide to a rate cut at the FOMC’s upcoming meeting, his tone a long way away from his hawkish press conference following the July 30 FOMC meeting, and its hawkish minutes, published just days before the speech. Markets cheered, with both stocks and bonds rallying. Were they right to? Much depends on what caused the shift. Was it relief from inflation developments? Heightened fears of recession? Giving in to political pressure? Chair Powell himself assigned it to a “shifting balance of risks”
GDP growth figures for the first half of the year were clouded by a series of conflicting factors. In Q2, growth in the Eurozone was hit by a decline in exports, while imports in the United States led to a sharp rebound. This is a backlash from Q1, when additional exports, in anticipation of the tariff shock, had supported growth in the Eurozone, while penalising growth in the United States. Beyond this unusual volatility, it is the robustness of growth that is striking. In the Eurozone, German growth was back, although moderately, and monetary policy easing had an impact, with this robustness set to continue in the second half of the year. In the United States, the slowdown remained relative but is likely to strengthen due to the growing impact of tariffs on inflation and consumption.
