EcoWeek

The trend in employment remains solid

Eco week 22-25/ 20 June 2022  
economic-research.bnpparibas.com  
7
ECONOMIC PULSE  
SPAIN: THE TREND IN EMPLOYMENT REMAINS SOLID  
The strength of the employment data reflects a degree of resilience in the Spanish economy in the face of the multiple shocks. According to the  
Spanish Employment Office (SEPE) an additional 33,366 active workers (+0.2% m/m) were registered in the social security system in May, the  
1
thirteenth consecutive month of growth. The government is expecting a further increase in June . Meanwhile, unemployment fell by 41,069 in  
May, to its lowest level since 2008. This decline was driven by a further drop in youth unemployment (25 and under), of 21,974. The number of  
young people out of work slipped below 200,000 for the first time since the beginning of the current data series in January 2001. However, this  
figure needs to be treated with a degree of caution as the activity rate for this age group has fallen sharply since the crisis of 2011. As a result,  
the overall unemployment rate has been stable since the beginning of the year, and was 13.3% in April.  
Furthermore, the European Commission’s confidence surveys show particularly strong trends in the construction sector, despite the problems  
faced by companies (rising production costs, supply problems for certain materials). The business climate index in the sector jumped in May  
(
+12.1 points to 21.6), reaching its highest level since November 2005, while the employment index was the best in 22 years. Confidence in the  
services sector was also strong in May, going into the summer season and the tourism peak. Household confidence is edging higher, but from a  
low level following its collapse in the first quarter of 2022 as a consequence of the war in Ukraine.  
Inflationary pressures intensified in May. The Consumer Price Index was up 8.4% y/y, from 8.3% y/y in April. Although the introduction of a price cap  
on natural gas (on 15 June) will limit energy price inflation (34.2% y/y in May), the increase in consumer prices is accelerating in other expenditure  
items, notably food and non-alcoholic beverages (11.0% y/y), household equipment (5.9%) and restaurants and hotels (6.3%).  
Guillaume Derrien  
1. See “Sánchez avanza que el empleo en junio crecerá en 125.000 trabajadores más”, El País, 11 June 2022.  
SPAIN: QUARTERLY CHANGES  
3
-month moving average (actual)  
Industrial production  
-
-- 3-month moving average (4 months ago)  
4
3
2
1
0
.0  
.0  
.0  
.0  
.0  
PMI employment  
Unemployment Rate  
PMI new export orders  
HICP  
-
-
1.0  
2.0  
PMI services  
-3.0  
Business climate - Construction  
PMI manufacturing  
Business climate - Manufacturing  
Exports  
Consumer confidence  
SOURCE: REFINITIV, BNP PARIBAS  
Retail sales  
The indicators in the radar are all transformed into ‘z-scores’ (deviations from the long-term average, as standard deviations). These z-scores have mean zero and their values  
are between -3 and +4. In the radar chart, the blue area shows the actual conditions of economic activity. It is compared with the situation four months earlier (dotted-line). An  
expansion of the blue area compared to the dotted area signals an increase in the variable.  
The bank  
for a changing  
world  
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