Under the impact of the Trump administration's tariff policy and the acceleration of US-China decoupling, global economic growth is expected to slow, international trade to reconfigure and the reorganization of value chains to continue. These changes will have multiple effects on emerging countries. Their export growth will slow and competition from Chinese products will increase. Some countries could nevertheless take advantage of new opportunities to attract FDI and develop their manufacturing base.
The sharp increase in US tariffs on Chinese imports is a major blow to Chinese exports and economic growth. However, Beijing has prepared for this, and the impact will be partially offset by its response strategy. In the short term, this strategy consists of redirecting exports to other markets, continuing monetary and fiscal policy easing, and boosting private consumption. The redeployment of exports has begun, but it could quickly run into new protectionist barriers. Domestically, the challenge will be to restore household confidence while the labour market may suffer as a result of the slowdown in the manufacturing sector.
India's economic growth is slowing down. Household consumption is sluggish, hampered by slower real wage growth and rising debt burdens, and private investment is weak. Given its low degree of openness, India will be little affected by US tariff increases, but it is unlikely to be spared altogether. Its room for negotiation with the Trump administration is limited. However, its domestic market is vast and allows for diversification of production in Asia. In order to take advantage of the Sino-US trade war, India will need to address the structural constraints weighing on the development of its industry quickly. However, the government's room for manoeuvre to push through reforms in the short term is very limited.
Thailand's real GDP growth remained solid in Q1 2025, but downside risks are high. Thailand is one of the Asian countries that has benefitted most from the trade tensions between the US and China, but the effects of the further tightening of US trade policy could be more painful. Its products might be taxed more heavily than those of its competitors in the US market, while the influx of Chinese goods could increase significantly. However, it could also benefit from new investment from foreign companies seeking to diversify their production chains. It has many advantages over some of its neighbours.
The tightening of US trade policy presents Brazil with numerous challenges and pressure points through its effect on economic growth, commodity prices, the need to defend its export market shares and heightened competitive pressure within its borders stemming from the rerouting of inexpensive goods. However, this new environment also presents Brazil with opportunities to reposition itself in the global trade landscape enabling it to take advantage of the reconfiguration of trade flows and global value chains. This shifting geography could also act as a catalyst to accelerate its trade integration (Mercosur, EU, Canada, Mexico). In the short term, however, the most pressing challenges will be domestic
The outlook continues to deteriorate in Mexico, one of the countries most exposed to US economic policy. The Mexican economy is set to contract in the coming quarters, with weak domestic demand unable to offset the marked slowdown in exports. Mexico's Minister of the Economy has begun talks with Washington on a faster-than-expected renegotiation of the USMCA free-trade agreement. The aim is to reduce the short-term uncertainty surrounding bilateral relations between the two countries.
GDP growth is holding up rather well in Chile, buoyed by the mining sector and a solid domestic demand. The outlook is relatively favourable: inflation is contained, fiscal consolidation should continue and political risk remains moderate in the run-up to the presidential election at the end of the year. Lastly, apart from the announcements regarding the copper sector, the direct impact of the increase in tariffs imposed by the Trump administration on the Chilean economy is relatively low. Indirect effects, volatile commodity prices and uncertainties over the pace of progress in the global low-carbon transition, on the other hand, represent a very significant risk for the Chilean economy.
After picking up again in fall 2024 and winter 2025, the Turkish economy is expected to bend. This is due to financial tensions since mid-March, the impact of US tariff increases on exports, and a more restrictive fiscal policy. But it will not break. Our scenario remains one of continued gradual disinflation, which would allow the monetary easing cycle to resume. The government's solvency should continue to strengthen, but external vulnerability, due to volatile portfolio investment, is likely to increase. However, with moderate twin deficits, historically low public debt and a solid banking sector, financial stability is not at risk.
The unexpected decline in Hungarian GDP in Q1 2025 will probably be followed by modest growth over the next few quarters, with consumption as the main pillar. However, Hungary will not escape the negative consequences of the US tariff shock, as it is a very open economy. More intense competition from China is expected, particularly on medium and high-tech products. Nonetheless, China remains a major investor in Hungary, mainly in the automotive sector.
Our growth forecasts have been revised downwards due to the tariff shock initiated by the United States, and the country's industrial specialisation. Slovakia is the most exposed Central European country to the Trump administration's tariff measures. The economy is heavily dependent on foreign trade and the automotive sector. The Slovak economy should avoid a recession thanks to public investment and consumption. The rise in inflation at the start of the year, following the increase in the VAT rate, is temporary and limited, and should not weigh heavily on consumption. In the medium term, the German stimulus plan and FDI inflows will be supportive factors for the economy.
The Slovenian economy is very open, making it highly sensitive to the economic situations of its main partners and to trends in world trade. The slump at the start of the year is due to the disruption in world trade. Household consumption and public investment should continue to underpin activity. Inflation is edging up on the back of wage pressures and a possible rise in energy prices. The resumption of government spending should lead to an increase in the budget deficit, but without causing any slippage and while keeping debt trends under control. The effects of US trade policy should remain moderate. However, the German economy remains the key factor in Slovenia's external performance.
In South Africa, the coalition government formed in June 2024 is overcoming its strong internal divisions one way or another. After three months of stormy negotiations, the final version of the 2025/2026 Budget, presented to Parliament at the end of May, was recently approved by all coalition parties. This is a necessary condition for regaining investor confidence, but it is not enough. The government will also have to ease diplomatic tensions with the United States. Without a significant rebound in investment, economic growth is likely to remain weak over the next three years, contributing to the fragility of public finances.
The outlook remains positive despite international turmoil. The United Arab Emirates (UAE), which is relatively unaffected by the tightening of US trade policy, has room to manoeuvre to cope with lower oil prices and the slowdown in global trade. Its economy is more diversified than that of other Gulf countries. It is also driven by its strong attractiveness to foreign investment and the support of the government. In the longer term, the UAE could also benefit from a potential reconfiguration of trade flows and leverage its assets to maintain its strategic relationship with the United States.
One direct and immediate consequence of Donald Trump's announcements on 2 April on tariffs, which are reciprocal and reduced in name only, was to accentuate the downside risks to the US economy and to seriously shake up the financial markets. According to our forecasts, the US economy will slow sharply but avoid recession, on the optimistic assumption of a de-escalation in the trade war and an easing of uncertainty.
After the outperformance of 2023-2024, US growth is expected to slow sharply under the impact of the uncertainty and tariff shocks triggered by the new administration. Recession concerns are returning into the spotlight.
The economic scenario for the Eurozone remains dependent on the evolution of the trade conflict and implementation of possible US reciprocal tariffs of 20%. The increase in defence spending will nevertheless support GDP.
Against a backdrop of heightened international competition and trade tensions linked to the United States' new tariff policy, the German economy is seeing its traditional growth drivers challenged. In the short term, the increase in customs duties imposed by the Trump administration will weigh on exports and heighten economic uncertainty.
French growth is set to bottom out in 2025, due to political and trade uncertainties. It should pick up again in 2026, buoyed by a rise in public consumption driven in particular by defence spending and the expected acceleration in German growth.
The mild rebound recorded in Q4 2024 enabled Italy’s real GDP to grow by 0.5% over the year. In 2025, real GDP is expected to grow by 0.8%, while in 2026, it should reach 1.3%. GDP growth is expected to remain subdued in the first part of 2025. It should gain momentum later in the year, mainly driven by consumption, which is projected to benefit from increased disposable income.
Over the next two years, Spanish growth should be stronger than anticipated in our last issue of EcoPerspectives. Continued disinflation and the good performance of the labour market should continue to drive domestic demand, at the expense of foreign trade.
A new government has emerged, with the coalition agreement under immediate pressure from protesting unions and criticism on its underlying assumptions. Growth remains positive, albeit below trend as capex spending could take a hit while net exports still weigh on GDP.
Although the United Kingdom has been penalised less severely than its European neighbours, it has not escaped the 10% tariff floor on US customs duties. The negative impact on activity will add to the pre-existing domestic brakes.
Japan is heading for a year without quarterly growth. Domestic demand is still constrained, with nominal wages rising at a slower pace than inflation. In addition, the trade policy of the United States, Japan’s largest export market, poses a downside risk.
Since taking office, President Trump has confirmed his threats to raise tariffs, but fears of universal and widespread application have abated somewhat. He will decide whether to carry out his threats once an audit of the United States' trade relations with all its trading partners has been completed, which should be by the beginning of April. Between now and then, and even over 2025 as a whole, the divergence in the trajectory of world trade between advanced countries and emerging and developing countries (EMDs) is set to increase. Trade between EMDs is expected to grow significantly faster in 2025 (5%) than during the 2012-2018 pre-COVID period (+3.9% per annum on average), whereas it will be the opposite for advanced countries
After a good start to the year, Chinese economic growth will slow down in 2025 due to still weak domestic demand and the effects of the upcoming protectionist shock on exports. China has tools at its disposal to respond to President Trump’s new tariff plans, even though its room for manoeuvre to offset the effects of rising tariff barriers with a depreciation of the yuan and a drop in export prices has narrowed compared to 2018. The authorities will continue to ease their monetary and fiscal policies in the short term to stimulate activity and boost private consumption, and try to support a rebalancing of China’s economic growth model.
EcoPerspectives is the quarterly review of advanced economies (member countries of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) and China.
It provides an outline of several advanced economies using indicators for the past quarter and it looks ahead in order to better understand and anticipate the main economic problems of the countries in question.
For EcoPerspectives, economists from the advanced economies team regularly monitor the key economic indicators of selected countries. In particular, our experts use the quarterly forecasts provided by BNP Paribas (for growth, inflation, exchange rates, interest rates and oil prices). Each economist analyses the economic situation of one or more countries, based on the available indicators, in order to see how they change, including the industrial production index, quarterly gross domestic product (GDP) and inflation forecasts, the consumer price index (CPI) and the producer price index (PPI), and employment and unemployment figures. How various stakeholders’ views evolve is also studied and analysed closely (e.g. household confidence and business climate). The author comments on the main factors that influence and determine the economic activity of the country concerned and the economic outlook for the coming quarter.
