Based in Paris, BNP Paribas' Economic Research Department is composed of economists and statisticians:
The Economic Research department’s mission is to cater to the economic research needs of the clients, business lines and functions of BNP Paribas. Our team of economists and statisticians covers a large number of advanced, developing and emerging countries, the real economy, financial markets and banking. As we foster the sharing of our research output with anyone who is interested in the economic situation or who needs insight into specific economic issues, this website presents our analysis, videos and podcasts.
+33(0)1 43 16 95 56 tarik.rharrab@bnpparibas.com
The global composite PMI rose for the third consecutive month in January (up to 51.8 from 51 in December), reaching its highest level since June 2023. All sectors have contributed to this improvement in global activity. In January, the global manufacturing and services PMIs hit their highest levels since August 2022 and July 2023, respectively.
Key figures for the French economy compared with those of the main European countries, analysis of data on the population and the French labour market, activity by sector, publication administration figures, inflation, credit and interest rates, corporate and household accounts.
In the United States, economic policy uncertainty, based on media coverage, fell in December, after rising for three months in a row. This drop can probably be attributed in part to the anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts and the hopes that they are raising.
In December, the S and P Global Composite PMI index for worldwide business activity rose again slightly (+0.5 points), reaching 51, its highest level since August 2023. This is the second consecutive month of improvement, after five months of decline. The signal remains encouraging for global activity at the end of Q4 2023. However, this improvement masks a fairly clear divergence between the services sector and the manufacturing sector. In December, the global services index reached its highest level since August 2023 (51.6), while the manufacturing index recorded its lowest level since the same month (49).
According to its final estimate, the S&P Global Composite PMI improved slightly in November, wiping out almost all the decline recorded in October. The November index stood at 50.4 (compared to 50.0 in October and 50.5 in September), ending a five-month decline. This is a slightly positive signal for global growth in the middle of Q4 2023.This modest improvement can be seen in both manufacturing and services.
In the United States, economic policy uncertainty, based on media coverage, increased in October for the second month in a row. The rise is probably related to the ongoing risk of a US government shutdown, and also to some uncertainty around the tone of the Fed’s statement after the FOMC meeting of 31 October-1 November.
The fall in the global composite PMI index continued in October. It hit the dividing line between the expansionary and contractionary zones (50.0, from 50.5 in September). This is a sign that global economic activity is flatlining in this early part of the fourth quarter of 2023.
In the US, economic policy uncertainty, based on media coverage, increased slightly in September, after four months of decline. The economic policy uncertainty, based on media coverage, increased slightly after four months of decline. In the Eurozone, the European Commission’s economic uncertainty index also moved upwards in September.
The third quarter 2023 ended with an eighth consecutive decline in the S AND P Global composite PMI. This is an increasingly tangible evidence of a slowdown in the world economy and this negative signal is reinforced by the level of the index now close to the 50-point threshold separating the expansion zone from the contraction zone (50.5 compared to 50.6 in August). While the manufacturing PMI picked up slightly to 49.1 (compared to 49.0 in August), but still indicating a contraction, the services PMI continued to deteriorate for the eighth consecutive month.
In the Euro zone, the European Commission economic uncertainty index resumed its decline in August, continuing the trend started in autumn 2022. Uncertainty is declining in almost all sectors, but the construction sector where it has increased again.
According to its final estimate, the S&P Global composite PMI index fell for the seventh month in a row in August, illustrating the loss of momentum in global growth in the middle of the 3rd quarter. The negative signal is reinforced by the level of the index, which reached just 50 (from 51.6 in July), the threshold between expansion and contraction.
The global composite PMI index stood at 52.7 in June, the lowest in four months, reflecting slowing global growth at end Q2 2023. However, the index remains comfortably within the range of expansion, buoyed by the services sector. On the other hand, the manufacturing PMI contracted sharply in June (48.8 compared to 49.6 in May).
Uncertainty about US economic policy, based on media coverage, fell in June after a rebound in May. The European Commission’s economic uncertainty index fell in June, continuing its decline since October 2022, as uncertainty in the various sectors of activity decreased, except in industry, where the index remained stable.
The global composite PMI rose to its highest level in a year and a half in May at 54.4 compared with 54.2 in April, the fourth increase in a row. However, this improvement in global activity conceals a clear disparity between the brisk momentum of the services sector and the weakness of the manufacturing sector.
The European Commission’s economic uncertainty index fell in May, continuing the decline since October 2022, due to the reduction in uncertainty in various business sectors, apart from construction, which saw a marked rise.
April was marked by the stabilisation of the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for the manufacturing sector, after a slight decline in March.
Uncertainty over US economic policy, which is based on media coverage, rebounded in March. The European Commission’s economic uncertainty index declined in April thanks to the easing of uncertainty in the various business sectors.
Manufacturing PMI figures were mixed in March. After rebounding in February, new export orders (table 2) dropped in March, due to sharp declines in Vietnam and China, and a slight fall in the United States and the UK. The normalisation of supply chain conditions has also carried over to input prices.
Although the latest figures show a few divergences, the overall trend in March is towards a slight reduction in uncertainty.The European Commission’s economic uncertainty index declined slightly in March, continuing its easing trend since October 2022, in the various business sectors. The only exception is household uncertainty, which has picked up slightly.
February S&P Global PMI data provided good news overall. One of the key results is the recovery in China's manufacturing PMI, which reached 51.6, its highest level in eight months (compared with 49.2 in January). This improvement is linked to the gradual recovery in factory production since the lifting of health restrictions. In the eurozone, the figures are mixed down in France, Germany and Austria, but up quite sharply in Spain, Italy and Ireland. In the United States and Japan, the index remained below the 50-point threshold, i.e. in a contracting zone for the fourth consecutive month.
The slight upward trend observed since mid-April 2021 has reversed course since year-end 2022 and early 2023, probably in line with the signs of easing inflation through January. In the United States, business uncertainty concerning sales revenues declined in February for the third consecutive month. In contrast, uncertainty over employment prospects rose reflecting the persistent difficulty of filling job vacancies.
Near real-time GDP forecasting ("nowcast") models are commonly used by economic analysts who monitor developments in GDP growth on a daily basis before the publication of quarterly national accounts. These models enable an estimate of GDP growth based on indicators that have already been published at the time of forecasting.
In the manufacturing sector, the global Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) showed a slight improvement in January following ten months of declines though still in contraction territory (49.1 points). With the exception of Japan, where the index remained stable, 26 of the 33 countries for which data for January was available reported increases.
