Based in Paris, BNP Paribas' Economic Research Department is composed of economists and statisticians:
The Economic Research department’s mission is to cater to the economic research needs of the clients, business lines and functions of BNP Paribas. Our team of economists and statisticians covers a large number of advanced, developing and emerging countries, the real economy, financial markets and banking. As we foster the sharing of our research output with anyone who is interested in the economic situation or who needs insight into specific economic issues, this website presents our analysis, videos and podcasts.
+33(0)1 43 16 95 56 tarik.rharrab@bnpparibas.com
April was marked by the stabilisation of the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for the manufacturing sector, after a slight decline in March.
Uncertainty over US economic policy, which is based on media coverage, rebounded in March. The European Commission’s economic uncertainty index declined in April thanks to the easing of uncertainty in the various business sectors.
Manufacturing PMI figures were mixed in March. After rebounding in February, new export orders (table 2) dropped in March, due to sharp declines in Vietnam and China, and a slight fall in the United States and the UK. The normalisation of supply chain conditions has also carried over to input prices.
Although the latest figures show a few divergences, the overall trend in March is towards a slight reduction in uncertainty.The European Commission’s economic uncertainty index declined slightly in March, continuing its easing trend since October 2022, in the various business sectors. The only exception is household uncertainty, which has picked up slightly.
February S&P Global PMI data provided good news overall. One of the key results is the recovery in China's manufacturing PMI, which reached 51.6, its highest level in eight months (compared with 49.2 in January). This improvement is linked to the gradual recovery in factory production since the lifting of health restrictions. In the eurozone, the figures are mixed down in France, Germany and Austria, but up quite sharply in Spain, Italy and Ireland. In the United States and Japan, the index remained below the 50-point threshold, i.e. in a contracting zone for the fourth consecutive month.
The slight upward trend observed since mid-April 2021 has reversed course since year-end 2022 and early 2023, probably in line with the signs of easing inflation through January. In the United States, business uncertainty concerning sales revenues declined in February for the third consecutive month. In contrast, uncertainty over employment prospects rose reflecting the persistent difficulty of filling job vacancies.
Near real-time GDP forecasting ("nowcast") models are commonly used by economic analysts who monitor developments in GDP growth on a daily basis before the publication of quarterly national accounts. These models enable an estimate of GDP growth based on indicators that have already been published at the time of forecasting.
In the manufacturing sector, the global Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) showed a slight improvement in January following ten months of declines though still in contraction territory (49.1 points). With the exception of Japan, where the index remained stable, 26 of the 33 countries for which data for January was available reported increases.
Some discrepancies have become apparent in the most recent surveys. Uncertainty about US economic policy, based on media coverage, has continued on an upward trend since mid-April 2021, on the back of the tightening of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve. The European Commission's economic uncertainty index fell slightly, due to less uncertainty in the various sectors of activity, with the exception of households.
The worldwide fall in Covid-19 cases has continued for the fifth consecutive week. 1.8 million new cases were reported between 20 and 26 January, down 27% from the previous week. The weekly GDP proxy indicator has recovered significantly in Germany, France, Belgium and Italy, while it remains relatively stable in Spain. In the United States, the United Kingdom and Japan, an increase over the latest data points can be noted
Between 4 and 10 January, 3.4 million new cases of Covid-19 were recorded worldwide, representing a fall of -3% compared to the previous week. This is the third consecutive week of falling infections following seven weeks of almost continuous increases. The number of new cases continues to fall sharply in South America (-24%) and, to a lesser extent, in Europe (-12%).
Outlook for GDP growth, inflation, interest rates and exchange rates
3.9 million new cases were counted between 7 and 13 December, compared with approximately 3.6 million the previous week, representing an increase of 8.3%. This is the fifth consecutive week of rising infections, a development that is all the more noteworthy as all regions reported an increase in weekly cases, with the exception of Africa, which reported a fall of 17%.
An update of the GDP Growth and inflation data, interest and exchange rates
The number of new Covid-19 cases continues to increase across the world for the third consecutive week. 3.2 million new infections were recorded between 24 and 30 November, up 10% on the previous week. This rise was seen across all regions, with the exception of North America, where the number of cases fell by 12%.
Between 17 and 23 November, 2.9 million new cases of Covid-19 were recorded worldwide, an increase of 13% on the previous week. This is the second consecutive week with an increased number of infections. All the regions of the world are affected, with South America notable for a significant resurgence in cases.
After falling for a month, Covid-19 pandemic figures are again rising slightly in most regions of the world, but remain at a low level. The weekly proxy indicator for GDP is relatively stable or even on a slightly downward trend in the United States, France, Germany, Spain, Belgium and Japan.
The number of new Covid-19 cases continues to decline in most parts of the world. For the first time since 20 October 2021, the number of infections has fallen below 3 million per week (seven-day moving average). Thus, 2.45 million new cases were recorded between 27 October and 3 November 2022, a 15% drop compared to the previous week (Chart 1). More generally, the number of new cases continued to fall sharply in Europe (-34%) and, to a lesser extent, Africa (-8%), while it stabilised in North and South America. In Asia, the number of cases is on the rise again (+11%), particularly in Japan (333,980, +25%), South Korea (293,934, +35%) and Taiwan (270,077, -3%).
The growth in the number of new Covid-19 cases continued for the fourth consecutive week in Europe. According to the latest data from Johns Hopkins University, European countries have recorded 59% (1.92 million out of a global total of 3.25 million) of new Covid-19 infections diagnosed in the last seven days (chart 1). In that region, the highest number of infections was recorded by Germany (632,167, +54%), followed by France (382,191, +21%), Italy (282,347, +26%), Russia (156,489, -26%) and Austria (95,894, +20%). The five countries account for 81.4% of new cases in Europe.
The weekly number of new cases of Covid-19 in Europe has continued to increase, for the third consecutive week, with 1.7 million new infections between 29 September and 5 October, an increase of 17% compared to the previous week. The number of people frequenting shops and leisure facilities is very slightly above its pre-pandemic level in Belgium, while it has recently gone back to slightly below this level in Italy. However it remains somewhat more noticeably below pre-Covid levels in the rest of our sample (France, Germany, Spain, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States).
3.4 million new Covid-19 cases were recorded worldwide from 14–21 September, a fall of 4% compared to the previous week. This is the smallest decrease since August last year. All regions of the world are affected with the notable exception of Europe, which recorded an increase for the first time since last July (an 18% rise). Of the 3.4 million new cases making up the worldwide total, 1.3 million were reported in Europe (38.2% of all cases).
The downward trend in the number of new COVID-19 cases has continued worldwide for the seventh consecutive week. 3.6 million cases were reported between 6 and 12 September, down 16% from the previous week (Chart 1). Overall, the situation is continuing to improve noticeably in South America (-33%), North America (-20%) and Asia (-18%), but it has stabilised in Europe after falling for eight weeks. In Africa, the number of cases fell again (-12%) after rising slightly during the previous week. Meanwhile, vaccination campaigns are continuing to progress worldwide, but at a much slower pace. Sixty-eight percent of the world’s population has received at least one dose of a vaccine (Chart 2).
The downward trend in the number of new Covid-19 cases continues worldwide. For the first time since the end of June, the number of infections has fallen below the symbolic 5 million weekly mark (seven-day moving average). Thus, 4 million new cases were recorded between 1 and 7 September, a 15% drop compared to the previous week (Chart 1). The situation continues to improve markedly in South America (-32%), North America and Asia (-18), but also in Europe (-5%), while it has stabilised in Africa, after two months of almost continuous decline. At the same time, vaccination campaigns continue to progress worldwide, but at a much slower pace. Sixty-eight percent of the world’s population has received at least one dose of a vaccine (Chart 2).
The global number of new Covid-19 cases has continued to decrease for the third consecutive week. 5.5 million new cases were recorded between 18 and 24 August, down 6% on the previous week. This drop was seen across all regions, with Africa down 21%, North and South America down 18%, Europe down 8% and Asia down 5% (chart 1). However, these figures should be treated with caution as a number of countries have made changes to their Covid-19 testing strategies, resulting in lower overall numbers of tests performed and consequently lower numbers of cases detected. At the same time, vaccination campaigns continue to progress, albeit at a much slower pace. To date, 68% of the world's population has received at least one dose of a vaccine (chart 2).
The world recorded 6.9 million new confirmed COVID-19 cases between 13 and 20 July, 9% more than in the previous week. This was a fifth consecutive week of rising case numbers. Asia saw the largest weekly growth. At the same time, footfall in shopping and leisure facilities in France, Belgium and Germany remains at its pre-COVID-19 level, while in Italy it is no longer very far off. However, footfall is still below the pre-pandemic level in the US, UK, Spain and Japan.
