The downward trend in the number of new Covid-19 cases continues worldwide. For the first time since the end of June, the number of infections has fallen below the symbolic 5 million weekly mark (seven-day moving average). Thus, 4 million new cases were recorded between 1 and 7 September, a 15% drop compared to the previous week (Chart 1). The situation continues to improve markedly in South America (-32%), North America and Asia (-18), but also in Europe (-5%), while it has stabilised in Africa, after two months of almost continuous decline. At the same time, vaccination campaigns continue to progress worldwide, but at a much slower pace. Sixty-eight percent of the world’s population has received at least one dose of a vaccine (Chart 2). At the same time, footfall in retail and leisure facilities remains high in developed countries. Recently, Germany, Italy and France have returned to their pre-pandemic levels. These three countries join Belgium, which reached its pre-pandemic level a fortnight ago (Chart 3). In contrast, retail and recreation mobility remains below its pre-Covid level in other countries (Spain, the US and the UK). In Japan, it suddenly fell back below its pre-pandemic level, after the sharp rise seen in mid-August (Chart 3, blue curve). Finally, the weekly GDP proxy continues to recover in Japan, while it remains on a downward trend in the UK, France, Germany, Belgium and the US. In Italy and Spain, the slight increase seen in the last point is part of a downward trend (Chart 3, black curve). This indicator is produced by the OECD using data from Google Trends, which results from searches relating to consumption, the labour market, real estate, industrial activity and uncertainty. The indicator shown here is calculated on a rolling basis over one year.
Tarik Rharrab
