In the first quarter of 2024, China’s economic growth was stronger than expected and was largely driven by the export-oriented manufacturing sector. Against a backdrop of sluggish domestic demand and strategic rivalries, particularly with the United States, Beijing is further developing its industrial policy to support economic growth and strengthen "national security". Priority is given to the high-tech and energy transition sectors. With considerable support from the government, these sectors are moving up the value chain, increasing their production capacity, lowering selling prices and gaining export market shares. The flood of green tech products is expected to lead to further trade confrontations in the coming months.
The reform policies initiated since Narendra Modi came to power in 2014 are expected to continue with his very likely re-election next June. His economic performance has been positive overall, with robust growth, a strengthening banking sector, a surging investment rate and infrastructural deficiencies being reduced. However, the country is still facing many substantial structural challenges. GDP per capita is still much lower than in other Asian countries (China, Vietnam and Indonesia), the manufacturing sector is barely growing and the country fails to create enough jobs for young people, who are still experiencing very high unemployment rates.
Subianto Prabowo will become the new President of Indonesia on 20 October. He will inherit a strong economy with robust and stable growth (5.1% on average over the last ten years, excluding the COVID-19 period), a low fiscal deficit, moderate public debt and sound external accounts. However, there are major challenges ahead for the new President. In the next decade, the country’s demographic dividend will begin to fade. He will need to adopt reforms more quickly in order to get significantly more young people and women into employment and attract more foreign direct investment. Without this, Indonesia will become an “old” country before it becomes a "high income" country.
On 15 May 2024, Lee Hsien Loong, Singapore’s Prime Minister for the past twenty years, will hand over the reins to his current Deputy Prime Minister, Lawrence Wong. This change in leadership is not expected to alter the highly disciplined management of monetary and fiscal policies, or the government’s economic development strategy, which is aiming, in particular, to adapt the country to climate change and to boost its potential growth. In 2024, economic activity is expected to pick up slightly, notably thanks to the improving global electronics cycle; inflationary pressures should continue to abate, but will nonetheless remain high. Against this backdrop, the authorities are expected to keep monetary policy settings unchanged this year.
Romania recorded a softer economic growth in 2O23 but remained one of the best performing economies in the region. The short-term outlook is strong. The gradual fall in inflation since the end of 2022 should pave the way for an accommodative but cautious monetary policy. The persistence of twin deficits remains a major concern. So far, the country has been able to rely on a certain resilience in capital flows to partly offset the current account deficit. Fiscal consolidation is one of the government's short-term priorities, although there is limited room for manoeuvre this year given the busy electoral calendar. Public debt is sustainable in the short and medium term.
Since the local elections on 31 March, financial conditions have stabilised. Markets reacted favourably to the defeat of the ruling party at local level. The result of the elections is not expected to change the economic stabilisation programme of Finance Minister Mehmet Simsek. The Monetary Policy Committee maintained its key rate at its last meeting in April, a rate which it had raised again in March. Household consumption continues to drive growth, which will remain sustained this year unless fiscal policy becomes very restrictive, which is unlikely. The rebalancing of growth components is underway, although it is not yet sufficient to curb the non-energy current account deficit.
After stagnating in the second half of 2023, economic activity has strengthened in recent months, supported by a surprisingly resilient labor market, amongst other. This good start to the year was however not overtly obvious given the divergence of many indicators. The pace of rate cuts is expected to slow down in the second half of 2024. Monetary easing is indeed coming up against slower-than-expected disinflation and upside risks to inflation expectations. The latter have been dented by the revision of the budgetary targets for 2025-28 and a more pronounced interventionism by the State, anxious to revive investment
Chile’s economic growth stabilised during the second half of 2023, inflation eased and the current account deficit fell. The expected upturn in activity in 2024 should ensure that growth comes close to its potential, driven by household consumption, private investment and mining exports. Political pressures have eased after the decision to suspend the process of adopting a new Constitution (which is expected to be left alone for a number of years). Nevertheless, Gabriel Boric’s government and the opposition parties are still clashing on a number of areas, most notably, fiscal reform, pension system reform and the energy sector framework law.
The economy of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) is still one of the most dynamic in the region. The strong performances are due to the UAE's sectoral diversification and the attractiveness of Dubai to tourists and investors. Despite the tense geopolitical environment, the short-term outlook is bright, as hydrocarbon production is expected to increase and the steady growth in services and real estate is expected to continue. However, geopolitical risk, oil market uncertainties and US monetary policy are all factors that could threaten this outlook. Uncertainty about the pace and scope of the low-carbon transition is making the longer-term outlook much more uncertain
The South African economy narrowly avoided recession at the end of 2023. The poor quality of the country’s infrastructure is significantly slowing down activity. In addition, the government lacks fiscal leeway and disinflation is slow and uneven, forcing the central bank to maintain its restrictive monetary policy. Faced with numerous macroeconomic challenges, the African National Congress (ANC) has initiated long-awaited reforms, but at a pace that is deemed insufficient. It is likely to pay the price at the general elections in May and lose its absolute majority in Parliament for the first time in its history. The choice of the party with which to form a coalition could disrupt the momentum of reforms and the trajectory of public debt.
In Morocco, the latest GDP growth and inflation figures were better than expected, but the latest drought in the country undermines its economic recovery. Regional instability is another real risk to bear in mind. However, the country's adequate economic policy management and solid fundamentals remain supportive factors of macroeconomic stability.
At a time when Senegal is preparing to launch its gas and oil production, the reconfiguration of the political landscape is generating immense hope among the population. The opposition candidate, Bassirou Diomaye Faye, won the presidential elections in the first round on the back of a breakthrough project. But the challenges ahead are huge, especially on the employment front. Despite a decade of robust growth, the economy has undergone little transformation and suffers from low productivity gains, which it will be difficult for the sustained investment effort to continue to mask, given the now high level of debt.
In 2024, 24 new countries will join the Guided Trade Initiative of the African Continental Free-Trade Area (AfCFTA). With the aim to boost intra-regional trade, the AfCFTA could increase Africa’s revenue and improve its resilience to external shocks. However, beyond tariff barriers, some structural challenges must first be addressed to see the full potential of the largest free-trade area in the world.
Monetary and forex conditions in emerging economies are more favourable in this early part of the year than they were at the end of 2022 and beginning of 2023. The relaxation of monetary policies made possible by lower inflation and upward revisions of growth forecasts have attracted portfolio investment. Despite the increase in geopolitical risk, sovereign risk is likely to reduce except for the most fragile countries, which were already under pressure in 2023. For low-income countries, 2024 will be a high-risk year as governments’ external debt repayments will remain very heavy, just as they were in 2023.
More than 18 months after defaulting on its external debt payments, Sri Lanka’s macroeconomic position has improved, but remains very fragile.
BNP Paribas Economic Research wishes you all the best for 2024. On the macroeconomic front, the highlight of 2023 was the peak in official rates in the United States and the eurozone, but what is in store for 2024?In this video, you can discover the topics and points of attention that will be monitored throughout 2024 for each team: Banking Economy, OECD and Country Risk.
According to the World Bank’s report published last week, the external debt stock of all low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) contracted in 2022, for the first time since 2015. However, this observation does not apply to sub-Saharan Africa (consisting exclusively of LMICs with the exception of the Seychelles): the region’s external debt continued to rise in 2022, reaching USD 832.8 bn, a figure up 2.1% compared to 2021.
In 2023, for the second consecutive year, Malaysia’s external accounts have deteriorated slightly, but are still strong. Over the first nine months of the year, the current account surplus decreased by 18.3% compared to the same period last year. The strong rebound in tourism has not been enough to offset the decline in the trade surplus caused by the global economic slowdown and the sharp contraction in demand for semiconductors and electronic products, which account for 36.3% of the country’s exports.
Nigeria’s economy is fragile. Despite the rise in oil prices in 2021 and 2022, macroeconomic stability has continued to deteriorate. This is due to the low level of oil production, an artificially overvalued exchange rate and the surge in energy subsidies. Without a change in economic policy, the situation was only going to get worse. The new President, Bola Tinubu, decided to act quickly and decisively. Shortly after taking office in May, he announced the flexibilization of the exchange rate system and the end of energy subsidies. Unsurprisingly, the first measure fuelled inflation, which is expected to come close to 30% by the end of the year. More problematic is the fact that we are once again seeing a gap between the official exchange rate and the parallel exchange rate
BNP Paribas Chief Economist William De Vijlder interviews Hélène Baudchon, Head of the OECD Economic Research team; Richard Malle, Global Head of Research at BNP Paribas Real Estate; and François Faure, Head of the Emerging Markets and Country Risk team. They take stock of the global economic situation against a backdrop of inflation, rising interest rates and monetary tightening by central banks. Are we coming to the end of this monetary tightening cycle? What are the impacts on economic growth and financial markets? Have official rates reached a peak in the eurozone or the United States? What influence has the rise in interest rates on the property market? What is happening in emerging countries? These questions will be addressed in three chapters. Enjoy your viewing!
Last week, African heads of state and private sector representatives gathered in Nairobi, Kenya for the first-ever African climate summit. This meeting, organised ahead of COP 28, ended with the signing of the Nairobi Declaration, through which Africa has taken on continent-wide ambitions in the fight against climate change.
Gabriel Boric intends to exceed the goals set up to that point, on a country level, by achieving carbon neutrality before 2050, and on an international level, by developing lithium and green hydrogen production and export capacities.
Even though economic growth in early 2023 was better than forecast for emerging countries, the slowdown scenario is seemingly coming to pass for the rest of the year. In 2024, the strength of the recovery will hinge on the geopolitical climate and on how far monetary policy is eased in the US and the euro zone. It will also hinge on the investment outlook for emerging countries. The UNCTAD’s annual report gives cause for optimism around the investment outlook, except for low-income economies.
The economic rebound that has followed the abandonment of the zero-Covid policy is quickly losing momentum. Domestic demand is held back by a significant fall in consumer and investor confidence, and export momentum is stalling. The authorities are cautiously easing monetary policy, but this may end up having limited effects on credit activity. Further stimulus measures are expected in the short term. They should, among other things, aim to encourage youth employment.
In India, economic growth is holding up thanks in particular to slowing inflation and early signs of an improvement in the labour market. Public finances, which consolidated slightly during the fiscal year 2022/2023, remain much more fragile than five years ago. The government is favouring growth over fiscal consolidation. Capital expenditure continues to increase, even though room for manoeuvre is shrinking due to the high and rising interest payments on government debt. The sharp rise in public investment has improved the quality of infrastructure, which should attract a little more foreign investment
