EcoWeek

Clearer skies ahead

Eco week 21-19 // 17 May 2021  
economic-research.bnpparibas.com  
7
ECONOMIC PULSE  
SPAIN: CLEARER SKIES AHEAD  
After disappointing Q1 GDP figures – which showed the economy con- to the social security system fell slightly in April (-9,800 or 0.1%)1,  
tracting again, by 0.5% q/q – the second quarter should bring the start down for the third consecutive month. The unemployment rate (15.3%  
of the much-anticipated recovery in Spain.  
in March) has fallen slowly but steadily from its August 2020 peak  
16.7%).  
(
On the pandemic front, the vaccination campaign is accelerating, with  
Spain delivering 500,000 daily injections for the first time on 30 April, The drop in activity this winter led the government to cut its growth  
while the number of new Covid-19 cases has slipped back below 200 forecast and raise its public deficit forecast. In its Stability Programme  
per 100,000 people (7-day average). Spain’s pandemic-related state of submitted to the European Commission on 7 May, the Spanish  
emergency officially ended on 9 May. From now on, Spain’s autonomous Government is now projecting real GDP to grow by 6.5% in 2021, and  
regions will decide which level of restrictions to adopt, which should it expects GDP level to climb back to its pre-Covid level by the end  
provide greater flexibility and should boost the economic recovery.  
of 2022 at the earliest. The Government has also raised its projected  
021 public deficit/GDP ratio to 8.4%. These forecasts remain heavily  
dependent on the upcoming tourist season: given the acceleration in  
the vaccination campaign in Europe and the imminent introduction of  
a European Covid passport, tourism may recover more strongly than  
what could have been expected just a few weeks ago.  
2
The improvement in the Covid-19 situation is continuing to have a  
knock-oneffectonbusinessandconsumerconfidence, whichbrightened  
again in April, as shown by our pulse. For example, the PMI composite  
index jumped by 5.1 points to 55.2 in April, driven by much greater  
optimism in services (up 6.5 points to 54.6). However, the improvement  
in opinion surveys is yet to show up in the jobs data: according to the  
Spanish employment office (SEPE), the number of workers registered  
Guillaume Derrien  
1. Seasonally adjusted data.  
SPAIN: QUARTERLY CHANGES  
3
-month moving average (actual)  
-
-- 3-month moving average (4 months ago)  
Industrial production  
1
1
0
0
.5  
.0  
.5  
.0  
PMI employment  
Unemployment Rate  
PMI new export orders  
HICP  
-
-
0.5  
1.0  
PMI services  
-1.5  
Business climate - Construction  
PMI manufacturing  
Business climate  
Exports  
Consumer confidence  
Retail sales  
SOURCE: THOMSON REUTERS, BNP PARIBAS  
The indicators in the radar are all transformed into ‘z-scores’ (deviations from the long-term average, as standard deviations). These z-scores have mean  
zero and their values are between -1.5 and +1.5. In the radar chart, the blue area shows the actual conditions of economic activity. It is compared with the  
situation four months earlier (dotted-line). An expansion of the blue area compared to the dotted area signals an increase in the variable.  
The bank  
for a changing  
world  
QUI SOMMES-NOUS ? Trois équipes d'économistes (économies OCDE, économies émergentes et risque pays, économie bancaire) forment la Direction des Etudes Economiques de BNP Paribas.
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