EcoWeek

Covid-19 : Fall in number of new cases worldwide

Eco week 21-19 // 17 May 2021  
economic-research.bnpparibas.com  
8
ECONOMIC PULSE  
COVID-19: FALL IN NUMBER OF NEW CASES WORLDWIDE  
According to the latest figures from Johns Hopkins University, Weekly Tracker of annual GDP growth in the main advanced countries  
5
.5 million new Covid-19 cases were recorded around the world in continued to slide, although it picked up in Japan and Italy after a brief  
the week of 4-10 May, a 12.5% drop from the previous week. This fall decline (chart 3). The OECD Tracker, which is based on Google Trends  
was seen in Europe (-16.5%), Asia (excluding India, -14.5%) and the resulting from queries on consumption, the labour market, housing,  
Americas (-6.3%). However, India saw a small increase of 2.4% over industrial activity and uncertainty, should be interpreted cautiously  
the same period, followed by a slight decline (chart 1). Meanwhile, since it reflects a base effect due to the comparison with poor data  
vaccination campaigns continue to gain ground around the world. The when the pandemic started to spread last year  
acceleration was particularly notable in the European Union (where  
2
9% of the population has now received at least one vaccine dose).  
(
chart 2).  
Tarik Rharrab  
As health protection measures have been relaxed, footfall to retail and  
leisure facilities continued to rise in the main developed economies  
between 30 April and 7 May. Only Germany saw a decline, with a  
6
.8 points drop from 36.1% below the benchmark* to 42.9% below  
(
seven-day moving average). During the week under review, visit  
numbers in Belgium, Spain, Italy and the United Kingdom were the  
highest since the beginning of 2021 (chart 3). Moreover, the OECD  
*
Google Mobility Reports show how visits and length of stay at different places change compared to a baseline. The baseline is the median value, for the  
corresponding day of the week, during the 5-week period Jan 3–Feb 6, 2020. A figure of negative 30% indicates that traffic was down 30% compared to  
a baseline. The reports show trends over several weeks with the most recent data representing approximately 2-3 days ago—this is how long it takes to  
produce the reports. In order to smooth the series, we use a seven-day moving average of the raw data in the Google Mobility Reports. Source: Google.  
DAILY CONFIRMED COVID-19 CASES  
SHARE OF PEOPLE WHO RECEIVED AT LEAST ONE DOSE OF VACCINE  
(
7-DAY MOVING AVERAGE)  
Share of people who received at least one dose of Covid-19 vaccine (11 May)  
Change in pp between 11 April and 11 May [RHS]  
Change in pp between 4 April and 4 May [RHS]  
India  
Asia excl. India  
Europe  
America  
Africa  
6
6
5
0
18  
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
50000  
00000  
50000  
00000  
50000  
00000  
50000  
00000  
1
6
55  
5
4
4
0
5
0
14  
1
2
10  
8
35  
3
2
2
0
5
0
6
15  
4
1
0
5
0
5
0000  
2
0
0
0
1/20  
04/20  
07/20  
10/20  
01/21  
04/21  
CHART 1  
SOURCE: JOHNS-HOPKINS UNIVERSITY (05/12/2021), BNP PARIBAS  
CHART 2  
SOURCE: OUR WORLD IN DATA (05/12/2021), BNP PARIBAS  
The bank  
for a changing  
world  
Eco week 21-19 // 17 May 2021  
economic-research.bnpparibas.com  
9
RETAIL AND RECREATION MOBILITY & OECD WEEKLY TRACKER  
Retail and recreation mobility (7-day moving average, % from baseline*)  
OECD Weekly tracker, y/y GDP growth [RHS]  
United States  
20  
France  
2
1
0
0
0
20  
0
20  
1
1
5
0
5
0
1
1
5
0
5
0
-
20  
-
-
-
-
-
10  
20  
30  
40  
50  
-
-
5
10  
-40  
-
-
-
5
-15  
-20  
-
-
60  
80  
10  
15  
-
-
25  
30  
-20  
-100  
-35  
0
1/20 04/20 07/20 10/20 01/21 04/21  
Germany  
01/20 04/20 07/20 10/20 01/21 04/21  
Italy  
2
1
0
0
0
10  
5
20  
0
20  
10  
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
10  
20  
30  
40  
50  
60  
70  
80  
0
-20  
-40  
-60  
-80  
-100  
0
-5  
-10  
-20  
-30  
-40  
-
-
10  
15  
-20  
0
1/20 04/20 07/20 10/20 01/21 04/21  
Spain  
01/20 04/20 07/20 10/20 01/21 04/21  
Belgium  
2
0
30  
20  
0
15  
1
5
0
0
2
1
0
0
0
0
-
-
-
-
20  
40  
60  
80  
-20  
-40  
-60  
-80  
-100  
-
-
5
10  
-
-
-
10  
20  
30  
-15  
-
-
20  
25  
-
100  
-40  
-30  
0
1/20 04/20 07/20 10/20 01/21 04/21  
United Kingdom  
01/20 04/20 07/20 10/20 01/21 04/21  
Japan  
2
0
0
20  
20  
15  
10  
5
1
1
5
0
5
0
1
0
0
-
-
-
-
20  
40  
60  
80  
-
-
-
-
10  
20  
30  
40  
0
-5  
-5  
-
-
-
-
10  
15  
20  
25  
-10  
-15  
-20  
-
100  
-30  
-50  
01/20 04/20 07/20 10/20 01/21 04/21  
0
1/20 04/20 07/20 10/20 01/21 04/21  
SOURCE: OECD (05/12/2021), GOOGLE (05/12/2021), BNP PARIBAS  
The bank  
for a changing  
world  
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