EcoWeek

Euro zone credit trends: lending to non-financial companies (NFCs) weaker than consumer lending in November and December 2019

Eco week 20-06 // 14 February 2020  
economic-research.bnpparibas.com  
6
ECONOMIC PULSE  
NOVEMBER AND DECEMBER 2019  
Credit impulse in the euro zone stabilised in December 2019 (up 0.3%, lower investment spending (in France, Germany and most particularly  
as in November) against a background of a slight slowing of real GDP Spain). This was in part offset by strong growth in consumer loans (from  
growth in the fourth quarter (1.0% from 1.2% in the third quarter). 3.5% to 3.7%). For the first time since 2013, more banks are expecting  
Outstanding bank lending to the private sector maintained its pace of demand for credit from NFCs to slow (first quarter 2020). In contrast,  
growth in December (up 3.7% year-on-year). For the second month in a expected demand for consumer mortgages remains strong, driven by  
row, growth in lending to NFCs was less than that in lending to consum- low interest rates, particularly in France.  
ers. The slowdown in growth in lending to NFCs (where the year-on-year  
figure fell from 3.8% in October to 3.2% in December) was due mainly to  
Laurent Quignon  
CREDIT IMPULSE*  
REAL GDP GROWTH VS BANK LENDING  
8
6
4
2
0
2
4
6
8
%
Taux de croissance annuel **, %  
1
1
1
1
6
4
2
0
8
6
4
2
0
Households  
NFC  
Private sector  
Real GDP, %, y/y  
-
-
-
-
Households  
NFC  
Private sector  
Real GDP, %, y/y  
-
-
-
10  
12  
14  
-2  
-4  
-6  
2
006  
2008  
2010  
2012  
2014  
2016  
2018  
2020  
2
006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020  
ECB BANK LENDING SURVEY, EXPECTED (FIRMS)  
ECB BANK LENDING SURVEY, EXPECTED (HOUSEHOLDS)  
1
00  
5
5
0
6
4
2
0
25  
5
0
0
0
-
25  
-50  
75  
Consumer credit demand  
-2  
Consumer credit standards  
Housing credit demand  
Housing credit standards  
Real GDP, %, y/y [RHS]  
0
-5  
Credit standards to firms  
Credit demand of firms  
Real GDP, %, y/y [RHS]  
-10  
006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020  
-
4
-
-6  
006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020  
-
50  
2
2
SOURCE: ECB, ECB SURVEY ON THE DISTRIBUTION OF CREDIT, BLS, BNP PARIBAS CALCULATIONS  
*
Credit impulse is measured as the annual change of the annual growth rate of MFI loans ** Adjusted for securitizations  
The bank  
for a changing  
world  
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