Scenario and forecasts

Scenario and forecasts October 6, 2025

The updated economic scenario and forecasts of the Economic research at 6 January 2025

10/06/2025 • By Équipe ÉTUDES ÉCONOMIQUES

Economic news

Wednesday, October 1, 2025

Tuesday, September 30, 2025

Monday, September 29, 2025

Thursday, September 25, 2025

Wednesday, September 24, 2025

Tuesday, September 23, 2025

Thursday, September 18, 2025

Wednesday, September 17, 2025

Monday, September 15, 2025

Friday, September 12, 2025

Wednesday, September 10, 2025

Tuesday, September 9, 2025

Monday, September 8, 2025

Friday, September 5, 2025

Wednesday, September 3, 2025

Tuesday, September 2, 2025

Friday, August 29, 2025

Thursday, August 28, 2025

Monday, August 25, 2025

Wednesday, August 6, 2025

Thursday, July 31, 2025

Monday, July 28, 2025

Friday, July 25, 2025

Thursday, July 24, 2025

Wednesday, July 23, 2025

Monday, July 21, 2025

Thursday, July 17, 2025

Tuesday, July 15, 2025

Thursday, July 10, 2025

Tuesday, July 8, 2025

Monday, July 7, 2025

Thursday, July 3, 2025

Wednesday, July 2, 2025

Tuesday, July 1, 2025

Monday, June 30, 2025

Friday, June 27, 2025

Thursday, June 26, 2025

Wednesday, June 25, 2025

Scenario and forecasts October 6, 2025

Contents

The updated scenario and forecasts of the Economic Research - 6 October 2025

Economic news

In Africa too, the reconfiguration of global trade is benefiting China

The US Treasuries market, an idol with feet of clay: Oiling the wheels

Gas supply: will Europe soon be less vulnerable?

The updated scenario and forecasts of the Economic Research - 29 September 2025

Germany: despite the decline in the IFO index in September, there are signs that the recovery is progressing slowly but surely

Monetary policy: What's next?

Eurozone: Forecast disagreement declines during the forecasted year... but not in 2025

Walking on a fine line, advanced economies continue to show resilience

French economy: four strengths and one weakness

FOMC: Easing Under Constraints

Increase in US tariffs: Europe fares best

Domestic credit supporting growth in emerging countries

The US Treasuries market: an idol with feet of clay. A safe haven put to the test

CO2 emissions: when the trend in China reverses...

Productivity, growth and employment in the AI era: a literature review

In China, economic growth remains resilient but the fight against deflation is far from won

United States: lackluster summer employment data will prompt the Fed to act

United States: Will the Genius Act have the desired effect on demand for T-bills?

India: fiscal policy to support growth

How high can they go? A longer-term perspective on long-term interest rates, with a focus on the US

What should we take away from this summer’s economic developments, and what should we monitor this fall ?

The US Treasuries Market: An Idol with Feet of Clay. US Federal Debt: The Risks of Abundance

US tariffs in emerging countries: is the picture clearer now?

What Made Powell Blink?

United States: Yellow Alert on Activity

Resilient growth in Q2, in both the Eurozone and the United States

Tariff tracker

EU-US Trade Deal: A Damage Limitation Success

Global Economy: Issues to watch in the second half of 2025

Corporate bankruptcies in Europe: Are Things Finally Looking Up?

Oil: how vulnerable are Gulf countries to falling prices?

Good news for the ECB: household inflation expectations have returned to normal

The Global Economy at Mid-Year: So Far, So Good. But Watch Out for These Three Derailers in the Second Half

The first effects of the Trump tariffs are measurable, and they are massive

Recent trends and short-term outlook for EM exports

Emerging economies are no longer as vulnerable to US monetary policy as they once were

Non-performing loans in the European Union: sharp decline and lower dispersion since 2019

Ecopulse | July 2025

What are the effects of US tariff policy on global trade and emerging economies?

What’s on Central Bankers Minds Heading into the Summer?

French Economy Pocket Atlas | July 2025

India attracts FDI but fails to retain it

Inflation Tracker - June 2025 | Inflation down in May, except in the United States

Securitisation: Will the European Commission’s recent attempt to relaunch be the right one?

France: Rising property prices could be hampered by the slowdown in the rebound in households’ real estate purchasing capacity

Rising long-term interest rates: a relatively good point for the Eurozone

Germany’s budget for 2025: a massive and rapid increase in investment, but for what purpose and at what cost?

Bi-annual Conference — The new US trade tariffs: What are the consequences? How will trade be restructured?

Editorial | Tariff shock: what effects on global trade and what consequences for emerging countries?

Rearm Europe: turning the challenge of rearmament into an opportunity for European industry and growth

My Account