Scenario and forecasts

Scenario and forecasts January 26, 2026

The updated economic scenario and forecasts of the Economic research at 6 January 2025

01/26/2026 • By Équipe ÉTUDES ÉCONOMIQUES

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Scenario and forecasts January 26, 2026

Contents

The updated scenario and forecasts of the Economic Research - 26 January 2026

Economic news

Nowcasts and estimates for Q4 2025 : Growth is rising in the advanced economies and in China

Gulf: the GCC is investing heavily abroad despite a falling current account surplus

In sub-Saharan Africa, public debt stabilises but vulnerabilities increase

2026: the year of European sovereignty in payments?

The updated scenario and forecasts of the Economic Research - 26 January 2026

GDP Growth: Nowcasts and estimates

German budgetary shift: toward a 2026 upswing and stronger growth effects

Emerging economies in 2026: cautious optimism

Home loans in France: will the new prudential requirements result in interest rate hikes and higher down payments?

In 2026: Consumption to rebound in the Eurozone and to modaterate in the US?

What convergence between low-carbon transition and energy sovereignty in Europe?

2026 Economic Outlook in Advanced Countries: Building on the Success of 2025

Bulgaria in the spotlight

2026 Economic Outlook: Clear skies but don’t unfasten your seatbelts yet

Did the Fed end its QT too late?

United States: a "K-Shaped" investment

Economic Outlook 2026-2027 in Advanced Countries: Solidity test

Monetary policy: three central banks, three decisions, the same caution

Electric vehicles: after a flying start, the European market needs to step up a gear. A delicate manoeuvre

From Paris to Belem, or how climate change became a key economic issue

Global Economy: Looking back at 2025, looking ahead to 2026

2025: a pivotal year for electric vehicles in Europe

Fed: Powell's legacy should endure

France: Improvement in households’ real estate purchasing capacity in the tightest housing markets

Household consumption: Heading for a rebound in the Eurozone and a slowdown in the United States?

Emerging economies — Solid growth, limited room for manoeuvre

Full circle

Focus on signs of good health in the French economy

India: Job creation is concentrated in low-productivity sectors, which is hindering growth

Emerging economies: Will growth hold up as well in 2026?

Nonfarm Payrolls: A Good September Reading Does Not Reduce Uncertainty Surrounding the FOMC's Upcoming Decision

Eco Charts Public Finances 2025 | Public debt set to increase in most countries by 2030

Job creation in the technology sector is a driver of the Eurozone's labour market

Europe’s economy is in much better shape than our self-bashing culture would have you believe

Eurozone: New momentum

Editorial: Emerging countries: economic growth remains solid but is not enough to stabilise public debt

Are European households Ricardian?

Digital euro: one cost may hide another

United States: Will the Fed be sufficiently cautious when it stops QT?

International trade: after the US tariff offensive, an ever more multipolar world

Argentina: What lessons can be learned from the midterm elections?

Inflation Tracker - November 2025 | Limited rebound in inflation in September

FOMC: End of balance sheet runoff, another rate cut... but no commitment on the next one

Central Europe: Exports in the automobile sector are resisting well

Will the Fed and ECB meetings in October really be non-events?

Sovereign interest rate vs. bank lending rate for non-financial companies: towards a durable convergence in France?

What impact will Mexico's new tariffs have on imports? The example of the automotive sector

Anxious Relief Over the State of the Global Economy

Effects of the Mediterranean diet

Treasuries: a safe haven under pressure

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