Scenario and forecasts

Scenario and forecasts August 25, 2025

The updated economic scenario and forecasts of the Economic research at 6 January 2025

08/25/2025 • By Équipe ÉTUDES ÉCONOMIQUES

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Scenario and forecasts August 25, 2025

Contents

The updated scenario and forecasts of the Economic Research - 25 August 2025

Economic news

The US Treasuries Market: An Idol with Feet of Clay. US Federal Debt: The Risks of Abundance

US tariffs in emerging countries: is the picture clearer now?

What Made Powell Blink?

The updated scenario and forecasts of the Economic Research - 25 August 2025

United States: Yellow Alert on Activity

Resilient growth in Q2, in both the Eurozone and the United States

Tariff tracker

EU-US Trade Deal: A Damage Limitation Success

Global Economy: Issues to watch in the second half of 2025

Corporate bankruptcies in Europe: Are Things Finally Looking Up?

Oil: how vulnerable are Gulf countries to falling prices?

Good news for the ECB: household inflation expectations have returned to normal

The Global Economy at Mid-Year: So Far, So Good. But Watch Out for These Three Derailers in the Second Half

The first effects of the Trump tariffs are measurable, and they are massive

Recent trends and short-term outlook for EM exports

Emerging economies are no longer as vulnerable to US monetary policy as they once were

Non-performing loans in the European Union: sharp decline and lower dispersion since 2019

Ecopulse | July 2025

What are the effects of US tariff policy on global trade and emerging economies?

What’s on Central Bankers Minds Heading into the Summer?

French Economy Pocket Atlas | July 2025

India attracts FDI but fails to retain it

Inflation Tracker - June 2025 | Inflation down in May, except in the United States

Securitisation: Will the European Commission’s recent attempt to relaunch be the right one?

France: Rising property prices could be hampered by the slowdown in the rebound in households’ real estate purchasing capacity

Rising long-term interest rates: a relatively good point for the Eurozone

Germany’s budget for 2025: a massive and rapid increase in investment, but for what purpose and at what cost?

Bi-annual Conference — The new US trade tariffs: What are the consequences? How will trade be restructured?

Editorial | Tariff shock: what effects on global trade and what consequences for emerging countries?

Rearm Europe: turning the challenge of rearmament into an opportunity for European industry and growth

Inflation, interest rates: How important is the regime change in the eurozone?

United Kingdom: towards a fiscal consolidation which is spread over time but even more constrained than in France

FOMC: Waiting and Divided

In the Eurozone, inflation is also a monetary phenomenon

Slowdown and reconfiguration of global trade in 2025: what are the implications for emerging countries?

United States: Will easing leverage requirements stimulate demand for Treasuries?

Global economy: Towards another turbulent six months?

EcoPulse | June 2025

Gulf States: falling oil prices should not pose a threat to economic diversification

Will the euro be the true greenback in the future?

European energy policy: between transition and sovereignty

United Kingdom: From Brexit to Reset

Eurozone: demand is firming up progressively

How can we finance the extra investment needed in the European Union?

In the turmoil of US tariffs: what effects on developed economies?

Three good reasons not to lose faith in green bonds

French Budget: The Hardest Part is Yet to Come

Eurozone: general but uneven recovery of new loans for house purchase

French Economy Pocket Atlas | May 2025

Resilience of Central European economies amidst tariff shock

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