As we begin the 2026 financial year, long-term sovereign bond yields are reaching unprecedented highs not seen for decades. Why is this happening? Is it sustainable? What are the implications for the world’s various economies? These are just some of the questions addressed in this new Special Edition video, introduced by Chief Economist Isabelle Mateos y Lago.Drawing on insights from the banking sector and teams specialising in emerging and advanced economies, the economists from Economic Research will explain why the rise in bond yields is problematic.
When economists talk about public debt, they often refer to the ‘sustainability’ of the debt. Hélène Baudchon, deputy chief economist, explains what this means and when a debt trajectory can be considered unsustainable.
The scope for manoeuvre available to fiscal policy depends heavily on the interest rate environment, and this has tightened significantly in recent months.Guillaume Derrien, economist in the advanced economies team, explains where we stand today in the advanced economies, against a backdrop of high debt-to-GDP ratios and moderate growth.
Against the backdrop of rising bond yields in the Eurozone, Thomas Humblot, economist in the banking economics team, analyses the implications for the cost of bank financing and for borrowers, whether individuals or businesses.
Whilst long-term bond yields in advanced economies rose over the summer, Cynthia Kalasopatan Antoine, economist in the emerging economies team, explains what has been happening in emerging markets during this time.Are public finances stronger in emerging markets than in developed countries? What is the dominant trend when comparing key fiscal indicators?What emerges from a comparison of debt sustainability criteria?
Against the backdrop of the war in the Middle East, how are the energy crisis and the rise of AI redefining the dynamics of growth, inflation and productivity? What tools do advanced and emerging economies have at their disposal to strengthen their resilience whilst capitalising on the new opportunities that are emerging? How can Europe adapt and capitalise on the changes currently underway?These were the questions addressed at the latest BNP Paribas Economic Studies conference: “The global economy in the face of shocks: between upheaval and resilience”.Alongside Isabelle Mateos y Lago, Chief Economist of the BNP Paribas Group, two panels of economists discussed the consequences of the energy crisis and the massive expansion of artificial intelligence
Following the pandemic and the war in Ukraine, the conflict in the Middle East confirms that the global economy has entered an era of repeated supply shocks. Faced with the risk of shortages and the resurgence of inflationary pressures, the resilience of advanced and emerging economies is being tested. Central banks are more vigilant. However, the crisis could also lead to certain structural transformations that the global economy – and Europe in particular – needs.
Artificial intelligence is poised to reshape societies. The countries that produce the components essential to AI and those that are investing heavily in the field – led by the United States and China – will be the big winners. This surge of investment fuels strong momentum in start-up creation and drives a profound transformation of the labour market, ushering in a new cycle of productivity growth. The impact of AI on inflation is mixed: in the short term, it creates pressure on prices due to its needs in tech components and energy; in the medium term, AI should, like any major innovation, become disinflationary.
Twice a year, BNP Paribas Economic Research invites you to take stock of the global economic situation at a dedicated conference. For the December 2025 edition, the team has chosen to review the past year and present its outlook for 2026 with Jean Lemierre, Chairman of the Board of Directors of BNP Paribas.
A look back at the key developments of 2025, in particular the remarkable resilience shown by the global economy in the face of the US tariff shock, the reasons for this resilience, but also the areas of concern.
Notwithstanding the new US economic policy, which is highly interventionist in terms of trade policy and conflictual, with the longest shutdown in history, the watchword for 2025 was the resilience of growth performance. 2026 should start under the same auspices, with the Trump administration pursuing its agenda, the key elements of which are the renewal of the Fed governor and the risk of the Fed losing its independence. In Europe, the challenges are significant, with a substantial political agenda, including the implementation of Rearm EU, but not limited to that. In a still uncertain environment, we nevertheless believe that growth should return, despite an increasing competition from China
Will growth in emerging countries in 2026 be as resilient as in 2025? Continued monetary easing in the US and disinflation would suggest so. We must also reckon with the Chinese juggernaut, which could pose a threat through the aggressive redeployment of its exports or a boon as a trading and/or technology partner. In addition, financing conditions may not be as favourable as they have been in recent years. Finally, there will be a busy election schedule.
Fireside chat between Jean Lemierre (Chairman of the Board of Directors of BNP Paribas) & Isabelle Mateos y Lago (Group Chief Economist).
At a time when central banks are navigating between persistent inflation, economic slowdown, and unprecedented structural challenges, their room for maneuver has never been so closely scrutinized. Should they lower rates to support growth, maintain them to anchor inflation, or raise them in the face of unexpected shocks? Between balancing acts, threats to their independence, and regional divergences, the choices made by central bankers will shape the economy of tomorrow.
What are the common challenges and differences between the Fed, the ECB, the Bank of England, and the Bank of Japan? How are AI, climate change, and geopolitical tensions reshuffling the deck?
Why might the Fed cut rates despite stubborn inflation? What card will the ECB play in the face of a fragile European recovery?
After historic increases, lending rates for households and businesses are calming down. Should we expect a return to normal?
Monetary easing in Asia and Latin America, but vigilance in Brazil and Central Europe: what risks weigh on their growth?
Last December, the Economic Research department of BNP Paribas invited you to discuss the consequences of Donald Trump's return to power on the global economy and its repercussions on energy and climate issues.Six months on, it is time to take stock of his second term's turbulent start. Faced with threats to trade and a new logic of negotiation by force, how will the United States' trading partners react? Will we see new alliances emerge or existing ones strengthen? How will China position itself? What about Europe?
Donald Trump has, for the most part, taken a wait-and-see approach following his destabilising announcements on trade tariffs. Nevertheless, the damage has been done and uncertainty remains high. Both growth and financing of the US economy could be affected. For the time being, the oil sector appears to be holding up well.
“Europe will be forged in crises and will be the sum of the solutions adopted to resolve these crises,” wrote Jean Monnet. Faced with tariffs and the isolationist temptation of the United States, Europe has cards to play, such as intra-zone trade. The momentum of European growth over the next decade will depend on the financing and implementation of the European rearmament programme and Germany's ambitious investment plan.
The protectionist shock imposed by the United States will lead to further adjustments in production chains and global trade. Will emerging countries (excluding China) be able to benefit once again, even as competition from Chinese products intensifies on their domestic markets? Will they be able to gain market share in the United States, or even in China? Will they be able to reduce their dependence on either of the two superpowers?
On 20 January, Donald J. Trump will be sworn in as President of the United States for the second time.With him, there will be no "soft trade" or multilateralism, but a logic of nations governed by power relations.Faced with this new order, in which historic partners become rivals and alliances are now only circumstantial, what will Europe do?Between its desire to assert its power and its concern to protect its interests,Which card will China play? Will the "multi-aligned" countries such as India be able to maintain their position?Finally, as the United States prepares to withdraw from the Paris agreements once again, will the climate be the big loser?Find out more with this replay of the latest conference of the Economic Research department of BNP Paribas, held on 10 December.
In this special edition of Economic Research devoted to interest rate cuts, we introduce you to Isabelle Mateos y Lago, who succeeds William De Vijlder as Chief Economist of the BNP Paribas Group and Director of the Economic Research department. The Fed and the ECB are cutting rates. How much of a good sign is this? This is the subject we then tackle with Hélène Baudchon, before discussing the effects of the rate cuts on European banks with Laurent Quignon. Finally, we end with Christine Peltier analysing the effects of the Chinese slowdown on emerging countries.
Meet Isabelle Mateos y Lago who succeeds William De Milder as Chief Economist of the BNP Paribas Group and Director of the Economic Research department.
