Based in Paris, BNP Paribas' Economic Research Department is composed of economists and statisticians:
The Economic Research department’s mission is to cater to the economic research needs of the clients, business lines and functions of BNP Paribas. Our team of economists and statisticians covers a large number of advanced, developing and emerging countries, the real economy, financial markets and banking. As we foster the sharing of our research output with anyone who is interested in the economic situation or who needs insight into specific economic issues, this website presents our analysis, videos and podcasts.
+33(0)1 43 16 95 56 tarik.rharrab@bnpparibas.com
Key figures for the French economy compared with those of the main European countries, analysis of data on the population and the French labour market, activity by sector, publication administration figures, inflation, credit and interest rates, corporate and household accounts.
In the United States, economic policy uncertainty, based on media coverage, picked up again in September, after a brief decline in August. This increase is due to the political uncertainty in the country in the run-up to the presidential elections on 5 November.
Uncertainty around US economic policy, based on media coverage, fell for a second month in a row in August. This drop is likely due to Jerome Powell’s speech on 23 August at Jackson Hole, where the Chair of the Federal Reserve stated that the time has come for policy to adjust, meaning it is time to lower rates. This announcement echoed the views of some Fed officials, as expressed in the Federal Reserve’s minutes published on 21 August.
The S&P Global Composite PMI Output Index resumed rising in August, gaining 0.3 points to 52.8, after two months of decline. This is an encouraging sign for global activity halfway through Q3 2024. However, this improvement masks a fairly clear divergence between the services sector and the manufacturing one. In August, the global services index hit its highest level (53.8) since June 2023 (with the exception of May 2024), while the manufacturing sector index recorded its lowest level since December 2023 (49.5).
In the US, uncertainty about economic policy, based on media coverage, rebounded in June after a brief dip in May. The June increase was probably related to the climate of political and monetary-policy uncertainty in the US a few months from the presidential election.
The second quarter of 2024 ended with a fall in the S&P Global PMI for global activity. The index stood at 52.9 (compared with 53.7 in May), ending seven months of consecutive increases. This decline was driven by both the manufacturing and services sectors, with the global PMI at 50.9 (compared with 51.0 in May) and 53.1 (compared with 54.0 in May) respectively. This fall in the index is not necessarily a sign of a slowdown in global activity, but forthcoming surveys will be all the more important to see whether this is a new trend or just a temporary disruption
In the United States, economic policy uncertainty, based on media coverage, fell slightly in May, after increasing for two months in a row. This drop can probably be attributed, at least in part, to the encouraging fall in inflation in April and May, which is feeding expectations of interest rate cuts by the Fed.
According to the most recent S&P Global survey, the World Composite PMI index significantly improved in May (+1.3 points), rising to 53.7, its highest level since May 2023. After the more modest increase in April (+0.1 point), this is a further encouraging sign for Q2 world activity, especially as this improvement is being driven by both the services and manufacturing sectors, with their respective PMI standing at their highest level since May 2023 and July 2022, at 54.1 and 50.9.
In the United States, economic policy uncertainty based on media coverage increased in April for the second time in a row. There appears to be a correlation between this result and the spillover from the disappointing inflation data in the first quarter, which caused various players (central banks and markets) to postpone and drastically reduce their rate cut expectations for the year. In addition, according to the Chair of the Fed, inflation remains high and the restrictive policy will need to be kept in place even longer in order to keep progressing towards the 2% target.
In April, the S&P Global composite PMI index for worldwide business activity rose again slightly (+0.1 points) reaching its highest level since July 2023 (52.4). This rise results from the increase in services, with the associated PMI hitting its highest level since July 2023 (52.7, compared to 52.4 in March). Conversely, the manufacturing index fell slightly in April (50.3, -0.3pp), following three months of growth. However, it is still in expansionary territory.
In the United States, economic policy uncertainty, based on media coverage, resumed rising modestly in March, following a marked decline in February. This increase can be attributed, in part, to the February inflation figure (3.2% year-on-year according to the BLS consumer price index). By exceeding consensus expectations (3.1%), this negative surprise further pushes back the prospect of Fed policy easing.
An analysis of the latest PMI indicators, by Tarik Rharrab.
In the United States, economic policy uncertainty, based on media coverage, fell significantly in February, following a rebound in January. The index fell from 124 to 97, the lowest level since July 2023, when the policy rates were last raised. With US growth and the labour market continuing to hold up well, the economic outlook appears to be brighter and less uncertain. This gives greater credit to the scenario of a soft landing for the economy, and greater comfort for the Fed’s cautious stance and to take its time before cutting rates.
In February, the S&P Global Composite PMI improved for the fourth consecutive month (+0.3 points), to 52.1, its highest level since June 2023. This is a fairly clearly encouraging signal for Q1 global growth, especially as this improvement is being driven both by the manufacturing and services sectors. In February, the global PMI index in these two sectors reached its highest level since August 2022 and July 2023, at 50.3 and 52.4 respectively.
After a short respite in December, uncertainty about US economic policy, based on media coverage, rose again in January. This resurgence in uncertainty was likely caused by the latest US inflation figures, which proved more persistent than expected: it remained above 3% in January (3.1% year-on-year, according to the BLS Consumer Price Index) and turned out to be higher than consensus expectations (2.9%). During its mid-December meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) made it clear that it would not be appropriate to cut rates in the absence of certainty as to whether inflation was on a sustainable downward path towards its 2% target.
The global composite PMI rose for the third consecutive month in January (up to 51.8 from 51 in December), reaching its highest level since June 2023. All sectors have contributed to this improvement in global activity. In January, the global manufacturing and services PMIs hit their highest levels since August 2022 and July 2023, respectively.
In the United States, economic policy uncertainty, based on media coverage, fell in December, after rising for three months in a row. This drop can probably be attributed in part to the anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts and the hopes that they are raising.
In December, the S and P Global Composite PMI index for worldwide business activity rose again slightly (+0.5 points), reaching 51, its highest level since August 2023. This is the second consecutive month of improvement, after five months of decline. The signal remains encouraging for global activity at the end of Q4 2023. However, this improvement masks a fairly clear divergence between the services sector and the manufacturing sector. In December, the global services index reached its highest level since August 2023 (51.6), while the manufacturing index recorded its lowest level since the same month (49).
According to its final estimate, the S&P Global Composite PMI improved slightly in November, wiping out almost all the decline recorded in October. The November index stood at 50.4 (compared to 50.0 in October and 50.5 in September), ending a five-month decline. This is a slightly positive signal for global growth in the middle of Q4 2023.This modest improvement can be seen in both manufacturing and services.
In the United States, economic policy uncertainty, based on media coverage, increased in October for the second month in a row. The rise is probably related to the ongoing risk of a US government shutdown, and also to some uncertainty around the tone of the Fed’s statement after the FOMC meeting of 31 October-1 November.
