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The Economic Research department’s mission is to cater to the economic research needs of the clients, business lines and functions of BNP Paribas. Our team of economists and statisticians covers a large number of advanced, developing and emerging countries, the real economy, financial markets and banking. As we foster the sharing of our research output with anyone who is interested in the economic situation or who needs insight into specific economic issues, this website presents our analysis, videos and podcasts.
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According to the latest figures published by Johns Hopkins University, 4.6 million new Covid-19 cases were recorded worldwide between 19 and 25 August, up 1.2% on the previous week. Cases increased in both North America (10.8%) and Europe (3.5%). Conversely, decreases were logged in South America (7.7%), Asia (4.0%) and Africa (1.9%) over the same period (chart 1). In addition, vaccination drives have continued to make progress around the world, especially in the European Union where the pace of vaccination remains very high (chart 2).
The number of new Covid-19 cases continues to rise worldwide. The surge is due to the Delta variant, which is much more contagious than the other variants. It has now spread to more than 110 countries. The number of daily cases passed the half million mark on July 13 and 14.
The Delta variant is on its way to becoming the dominant strain of Covid-19 and has now been found in some 105 countries. Despite the health situation, visits to retail and leisure facilities remained strong, returning to their summer 2020 levels and marking a return to something close to normal in all advanced economies.
After trending downwards for 7 weeks, the figures for the Covid-19 pandemic have begun to rise again worldwide. In recent weeks, the OECD Weekly Tracker of annual GDP growth has been trending lower in most countries.
The Covid-19 pandemic continued to slow worldwide for the seventh consecutive week, with the number of new cases down 5% in the week of 15-22 June compared to the previous week. This has been the lowest number of new cases since February 2021. The downward trend can be seen in all regions with the exception of Africa.
Between 8 and 14 June, the number of new Covid-19 cases worldwide continued to decline, dropping 9% from 2.9 million to 2.64 million. This marked the sixth consecutive week of falls. On the vaccination front, more than 1.6 billion people around the world have now received at least one dose of a Covid-19 vaccine, or 21% of the global population.
The easing of the pandemic has continued for the fifth consecutive week across the world. The acceleration of vaccination programmes has allowed a gradual reopening of economies. Visits to retail and leisure facilities continued to rise in the main developed economies, marking a return nearly to normal in the week of 28 May to 8 June.
Visits to retail and leisure facilities continued to rise in the main advanced countries. The biggest increase in the week came in France. The improving trend has had a visible impact on the service sector, as can be seen in the latest service sector PMI.
With the fall in Covid-19 cases and rising vaccination levels, retail and recreation mobility continues to rise. Only Belgium saw a decrease last week, but its level remains the highest in Europe. In the US, mobility is almost back to normal. However, it is continuing to decrease in Japan, with the seven-day moving average down 22% compared with the reference level.
The Covid-19 pandemic continues to slow around the world. As health protection measures are gradually relaxed, footfall to retail and leisure facilities continued to rise in the main developed economies.
According to the latest figures from Johns Hopkins University, 5.5 million new Covid-19 cases were recorded around the world in the week of 4-10 May, a 12.5% drop from the previous week. This fall was seen in Europe (-16.5%), Asia (excluding India, -14.5%) and the Americas (-6.3%).
The situation in India continues to deteriorate with 382,146 new Covid-19 cases reported on 4 May alone, which has lifted the total to more than 20 million cases since the beginning of the pandemic. In Asia (excluding India), Europe and the Americas, the number of new cases continues to decline.
The Covid-19 pandemic continues to set records, with 825,721 new infections recorded on 28 April alone. Much of this surge has occurred in India, where there were 349,378 new cases, or 42% of the global total, whilst in the rest of Asia, Europe and the Americas we have seen a fall in the number of new cases over the past few days.
In the retail and leisure sectors, which are still hit by health restrictions, footfall improved in developed countries during the week of 9-16 April compared to the previous week, especially in the UK, which reported a big improvement in footfall (from -51% to -34% compared to the baseline*). This can be attributed to the reopening of bars and restaurants on 12 April. Footfall also improved in Italy (-51% to -40%), Germany (-47% to -40%) and Belgium (-43% to -38%). In France, footfall increased very slightly and is still the lowest in Europe (chart 3).
Faced with the resurgence of the pandemic, retail and leisure footfall declined in the developed economies, especially in Europe, during the week of 4-11 April. Moreover, the OECD Weekly Tracker of annual GDP growth continued to decline in Europe.
The global pandemic continues to worsen as the number of new Covid-19 cases continues to rise. In the week of 1-7 April, more than 4.14 million new cases were reported*, a 23% increase over the previous week. Increases were observed in Europe, Asia, excluding China, and the Americas, up 12%, 51% and 15%, respectively. In Europe, however, the growth rate of the new infections is on a declining trend over the past week.
Indicators of the strength of the Covid-19 pandemic have continued to rise around the world. With the resurgence of the epidemic in many countries, the gradual tightening of health measures has affected individual mobility...
According to data from Johns Hopkins University, the number of Covid-19 cases worldwide continues to rise. In spite of a poor health environment, the OECD Weekly Tracker of year-on-year GDP growth continues to improve. This indicator is based on Google Trends resulting from queries on consumption, the labour market, housing, industrial activity as well as uncertainty...
A deterioration in the health situation is once again affecting consumer behaviour in certain European countries. According to the latest Google Mobility Report, visits to retail and recreation facilities have seen divergent trends in the main developed economies. In Italy, France and Belgium, where the number of Covid-19 cases has been rising again, footfall has fallen...
As the number of Covid-19 cases has been rising globally over the past two weeks, many countries have now joined the vaccination campaign that began in earnest in December 2020. According to the latest figures on Oxford University’s Our World in Data website, 319.56 million doses of vaccine have now been administered in 118 countries...
The latest Google Mobility Report, of 1 March, revealed trends in visits to retail and recreation in the main European countries, Japan and the United States. Over the month, the indicator jumped from -60% to -45% in Germany, from -46% to -33% in Belgium and from -51% to -42% in Spain ...
Until recently, the rise in long-term interest rates did not stop the equity market from moving higher, but events this week suggest investors are becoming increasingly concerned. The possible impact of higher bond yields on share prices, depends on what causes the increase: faster growth, a decline in uncertainty, rising inflation expectations.The last factor is the trickiest one because it may cause a profound reassessment of the outlook for monetary policy. Over the past two decades, the relationship between rising rates and the equity market has not been statistically significant. Gradualism in monetary policy has played a role. Recent statements by Jerome Powell show he is very much aware of the importance of avoiding to create surprises.
The latest Google Mobility Report published on 23 February paints an encouraging picture of store footfall and visits to recreational facilities around the world, especially in Europe...
Retail and leisure traffic flows are increasing in some countries and declining in others according to the Google Mobility Report released on 14 February.
The rollout of the vaccination process is vital for the economies to go back to normal again. According to the latest figures available on Oxford University’s Our World in Data website, 152 million doses of Covid-19 vaccines were administered in 73 countries, adding 72 million doses and 9 countries up to 10 February...
