EcoWeek

Mobility: A mixed picture in high-frequency data

Eco week 21-13 // 2 April 2021  
economic-research.bnpparibas.com  
8
ECONOMIC PULSE  
MOBILITY: A MIXED PICTURE IN HIGH-FREQUENCY DATA  
Indicators of the strength of the Covid-19 pandemic have continued Meanwhile, vaccination campaigns continue to gain ground. Over  
to rise around the world. There have been 180,000 new cases globally the past month, the number of doses administered per 100 people  
since the end of February, mainly in three regions: Asia (excluding worldwide has increased by 2.4 points, although remaining very low:  
China), Europe, and the Americas (chart 1). However, some countries only 4.31% of the global population has now received at least one dose  
have seen notable falls in case numbers. In the United Kingdom, for (chart 2), from 1.91% a month ago. The data show a mixed picture  
example, a lockdown and an acceleration in the vaccination campaign when it comes to national vaccination campaigns. Israel continues to  
have produced a dramatic fall in daily death and new case numbers.  
lead the way, with 60.59% of its population having received at least  
one dose, a 6.12 points increase over the month. However, the Israeli  
campaign has slowed somewhat over the past fortnight. Next come  
the United Kingdom (45.53%), Chile (35.55%) and the United States  
With the resurgence of the epidemic in many countries, the gradual  
tightening of health measures has affected individual mobility. Over the  
past week, footfall to retail and recreation* have slowed in the main  
advanced economies. Only Belgium recorded an increase of 6.1 points  
(
29.18%). These three countries have seen the biggest change over the  
past month, with increases of 15.66 points, 18.21 points and 14.3 points  
respectively. Vaccination rates in European Union countries are now  
converging, but remain well below those seen in the UK or US. Only  
(
chart 3). Looking at the OECD’s weekly tracker for year-on-year GDP  
growth, the resurgence of the pandemic has produced very divergent  
results in the main advanced economies. A slight downturn was seen  
in France, Italy and Germany in the third week of March, whilst the  
indicator continued to rise in other countries (chart 3). Caution should  
be taken in interpreting this indicator due to a possible base effect  
1
1.61% of the EU population has received at least one dose. It is worth  
noting that some European countries report vaccination data with a  
delay of two or three days. Lastly, Morocco saw a 2.39 points increase  
in its vaccination rate, taking it to 11.7%, putting it just ahead of the EU.  
(
comparison with the start of the pandemic a year ago).  
Tarik Rharrab  
DAILY CONFIRMED COVID-19 CASES  
SHARE OF PEOPLE WHO RECEIVED AT LEAST ONE DOSE OF VACCINE  
(
7-DAY MOVING AVERAGE)  
Asia excl. China  
Europe  
America  
Africa  
Share of people who received at least one dose of Covid-19 vaccine (31 March)  
Change in pp between 28 Feb and 31 March [RHS]  
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
00000  
50000  
00000  
50000  
00000  
50000  
00000  
6
6
5
5
4
4
5
0
5
0
5
0
20  
1
8
16  
14  
1
1
8
6
4
2
0
2
0
35  
3
0
25  
20  
15  
10  
5
0
5
0000  
0
0
1/20  
04/20  
07/20  
10/20  
01/21  
04/21  
CHART 1  
SOURCE: JOHNS-HOPKINS UNIVERSITY (03/31/2021), BNP PARIBAS  
CHART 2  
SOURCE: OUR WORLD IN DATA (03/31/2021), BNP PARIBAS  
*
Google Mobility Reports show how visits and length of stay at different places change compared to a baseline. The baseline is the median value, for the  
corresponding day of the week, during the 5-week period Jan 3–Feb 6, 2020. A figure of negative 30% indicates that traffic was down 30% compared to a  
baseline. The reports show trends over several weeks with the most recent data representing approximately 2-3 days ago—this is how long it takes to  
produce the reports. In order to smooth the series, we use a seven-day moving average of the raw data in the Google Mobility Reports. Source: Google.  
The bank  
for a changing  
world  
Eco week 21-13 // 2 April 2021  
economic-research.bnpparibas.com  
9
RETAIL AND RECREATION MOBILITY & OECD WEEKLY TRACKER  
Retail and recreation mobility (7-day moving average, % from baseline*)  
OECD Weekly tracker, y/y GDP growth [RHS]  
United States  
20  
France  
2
1
0
0
0
20  
0
20  
1
1
5
0
5
0
15  
10  
5
-
-
-
-
20  
40  
60  
80  
-
-
-
-
-
10  
20  
30  
40  
50  
-
-
-
5
10  
15  
0
-5  
-10  
-15  
-20  
-
-
25  
30  
-100  
-35  
01/21 04/21  
0
1/20  
04/20  
07/20  
10/20  
01/21  
04/21  
01/20 04/20 07/20  
10/20  
10/20  
10/20  
10/20  
Germany  
Italy  
2
1
0
0
0
10  
20  
0
20  
15  
10  
5
5
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
10  
20  
30  
40  
50  
60  
70  
80  
0
-20  
-40  
-60  
-80  
-100  
0
-
-
-
-
5
-5  
10  
15  
20  
-
-
10  
15  
-25  
-30  
-35  
-20  
04/21  
0
1/20  
04/20  
07/20  
Spain  
10/20  
01/21  
01/20 04/20 07/20  
01/21 04/21  
Belgium  
2
0
30  
20  
0
15  
1
5
0
0
2
1
0
0
0
0
-
-
-
-
20  
40  
60  
80  
-20  
-40  
-60  
-80  
-100  
-
-
5
10  
-
-
-
10  
20  
30  
-15  
-
-
20  
25  
-
100  
-40  
01/21 04/21  
-30  
01/21 04/21  
0
1/20 04/20 07/20  
10/20  
01/20 04/20 07/20  
United Kingdom  
Japan  
2
0
0
20  
20  
20  
15  
10  
5
1
1
5
0
5
0
1
0
0
-
-
-
-
20  
40  
60  
80  
-
-
-
-
10  
20  
30  
40  
-
5
0
-10  
-5  
-10  
-15  
-
-
15  
20  
-
100  
-25  
01/21 04/21  
-50  
01/20  
0
1/20 04/20 07/20  
10/20  
04/20  
07/20  
01/21  
04/21  
SOURCE: OECD (03/30/2021), GOOGLE (03/30/2021), BNP PARIBAS  
The bank  
for a changing  
world  
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